Fumio Kishida resigned, is Shinjiro Koizumi really the next one?
2024-08-18
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What may really be in Shinjiro Koizumi's favor is his family background.
Text | Haishangke
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida suddenly announced yesterday (August 14) that he would no longer participate in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in September. This undoubtedly means that when the current ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan elects a new president, Fumio Kishida will resign as prime minister, and the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party will become the next prime minister of Japan.
On the morning of August 14, Fumio Kishida announced at the Japanese Prime Minister's official residence that he would not run for the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in September.
In fact, it is not difficult to see from Kishida Fumio's recent statements and media reports that he did not make the decision immediately, but after letting off steam for a while, he finally realized that the situation might be hopeless, so he had to announce that he would not run for the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party, which means he is about to resign.
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Until 9:00 a.m. local time on August 14, the so-called "relevant people" still disclosed to the public that Kishida Fumio "basically decided not to run for election", that is, he did not make a final statement. At the same time, the Japanese Prime Minister's Office announced that Kishida Fumio would hold a press conference at 11:30 a.m.
Fumio Kishida showed up at the press conference on time. Then he made a statement:
"The first step to the LDP's change in the simplest and most understandable way is my own withdrawal. I will not run in the party presidential election."
The question of when Fumio Kishida will step down since he took office in October 2021 has finally, finally, finally been made public with what he himself calls the "simplest and easiest to understand" answer.
Why did Fumio Kishida resign?
At the press conference, he gave a brief answer with a sense of relief. He said that someone must be held accountable for the kickbacks at the LDP faction's political fundraising banquet. "As the top leader of the LDP, I have to take responsibility, and I have no hesitation about it." Although he said he had no hesitation, in fact, this scandal has been delayed for a long time, and Kishida Fumio has also hesitated for a long time. However, seeing that the cabinet's approval rating is about to fall below 20%, Kishida Fumio can no longer hold on to this situation. If the LDP still wants to continue to govern, the best way is to change people, which seems to have the hope of raising the cabinet's approval rating!
Yoshihide Suga picture: Information
Hai Shu wants to say that Fumio Kishida has become the second current prime minister who had to give up running for party president after his predecessor Yoshihide Suga. This reminds us of another island country - Britain. The British Conservative Party also changed party leaders one after another in the past few years to keep the position of prime minister. From May to Johnson, to Truss and Sunak, the Conservative Party eventually lost its status as the ruling party.
Will the Liberal Democrats follow the British Conservative Party's lead?
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Looking back at the time when Fumio Kishida came to power in October 2021, in the Japanese House of Representatives election, including the "additional recognition", the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party secured an "absolutely stable majority" that could lead the operation of the parliament. In the July 2022 election, the Liberal Democratic Party won another landslide victory.
Even as late as April this year, some Japanese commentators were still advocating that Kishida Fumio's tenure had surpassed that of the late former Prime Minister Hashimoto Ryutaro, making him the eighth longest-serving Japanese prime minister since World War II. However, a few months later, the situation changed drastically.
Shinjiro Koizumi Photo: Information
At present, there is a trend of many heroes rising up in the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, and it seems that many people are eyeing the top position. Among them, some people have been advocating that the 43-year-old former Minister of the Environment Shinjiro Koizumi may succeed Fumio Kishida. The reason is that this "post-80s" has studied in the United States, has a master's degree in political science from Columbia University, and has worked at the Institute for Strategic and International Studies in the United States, and has close relations with the United States. At the same time, of course, it is also noted that he is the son of former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
However, in Hai Shu's opinion, Shinjiro Koizumi was exposed too early. Before Fumio Kishida announced his withdrawal from the election, someone claimed that he intended to run for election, which was not good for him!
You know, in the Japanese political circle, there are many people who have a good relationship with the United States and listen to the United States. For example, Fumio Kishida was once labeled as a "pro-China faction" before he came to power, but in fact, his close relationship with the United States was clearly revealed after he became prime minister.
For Shinjiro Koizumi, his "post-80s" label may not necessarily bring him an advantage in Japanese politics. "Post-80s" may have become national leaders in many countries in European politics, but they are not yet popular in Japan.
Junichiro Koizumi's life
What really helps Shinjiro Koizumi is his family background. Being the son of Junichiro Koizumi is one of the main reasons why he was able to become the Minister of Environment at such a young age. But such a family background should be viewed from two perspectives. For example, not long after Shinzo Abe was assassinated, his brother Nobuo Kishi had to leave the Office of the Minister of Defense of Japan. If Shinjiro Koizumi does not have enough collusion with some older and senior politicians, others may not support him.
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It should be noted that after Fumio Kishida expressed his intention to run for the next LDP president, people such as former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, Digital Minister Taro Kono, and current LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi have expressed their intention to run, but whether they will specifically run remains to be considered.
In July, Ishiba Shigeru's poll support rate was far ahead of Koizumi Shinjiro.
One is 28.4% and the other is 12.7%!
At the same time, former Minister of Economic Affairs and Security Takayuki Kobayashi and current Minister of Economic Affairs and Security Sanae Takaichi were also mentioned.
Hai Shu also noticed that as early as August 2, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had a secret conversation with Vice President Taro Aso at the LDP headquarters for more than an hour. Does this mean that the two had already discussed the issue of "successor" at that time?
According to media reports, Taro Aso met with LDP General Affairs Chairman Moriyama Yutaka on the evening of the 6th to exchange views on the party president election in September. It is said that Aso affirmed the achievements of the Kishida government over the past three years and positively evaluated the revision of three security strategy documents to strengthen defense capabilities, and Moriyama Yutaka also agreed with this.
Taro Aso picture: information
It seems that the media reports at that time were specifically discussing some of Japan's domestic and foreign policies, but in fact, it might not be just that. However, if the secret talks between the two were exaggerated by the Japanese media, it would have another effect, that is, the Japanese people would think that after the "black money" politics of the Liberal Democratic Party, there is "black box" operation, and the people would be even more dissatisfied. In a public opinion survey,
More than half of the respondents hope that "the ruling party and the opposition party will be evenly matched in the next parliamentary election," and a pessimistic atmosphere of "possible change of regime" permeates the Liberal Democratic Party.
Will Japan change its political party to another one like the UK? However, looking at the current situation in the UK, people in Japanese society are probably worried!
