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The carefully planned incursion by Ukrainian troops into the Kursk region exposed the weaknesses of the Russian military and dealt a blow to Russia’s official claim that it was unaffected by the hostilities. On August 6, thousands of Ukrainian soldiers entered Russian territory without encountering significant resistance.

Russian Army: Defense is empty

In fact, checkpoints set up on the Russian side of the 245-kilometer border with Ukraine in the Kursk region are mainly guarded by conscripts of the border guards who are subordinate to the Federal Security Service and have little training, and infantrymen of the army troops who are equipped with light equipment.

The ease with which the Ukrainians achieved the breakthrough is simply incredible. "It wasn't very difficult," said Stefania Odran, an international risk consultant and reserve officer. "The border in the northern Donbass has been quiet since the spring of 2022, except for a few small attacks. So there are only two trench lines, some minefields and a small number of people - a few hundred people from the Federal Security Service and the National Guard."

The area is a no-man's land 5 to 10 kilometers deep where Moscow considers the risk low and all attention is focused on Donbass, where fighting has been concentrated for months.

The military expert believes that the entry of Ukrainian troops into the region was made easier because their enemies began to clear mines in the area in order to launch an offensive. "For some time, the Russians have been quietly preparing to attack Sumy from the border area. Mine clearance has begun, but they have not yet assembled their forces." Thanks to the warnings from drones and radars, the Ukrainians may have seen the "opportunity effect" and decided to "strike first."

The surprise attack was all the more unexpected because Moscow was convinced that the Ukrainians had no offensive capabilities and was convinced that their focus was on Donbass and Crimea.

However, Kiev had already assembled thousands of troops in Sumy weeks before the invasion. How come these movements did not attract the attention of Russian intelligence services? General Andrei Gurulev, deputy chairman of the Defense Committee of the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, confided to the Free Media Network: "I can't believe (they) didn't know."

According to two channels on the Russian Telegram software Rybar and VchK-OGPU, General Yesedullah Abachev, who is responsible for protecting the Kursk border, reported to his superiors a few weeks ago about the unusual concentration of Ukrainian troops in the Sumy region, but the General Staff did not believe it or was unwilling to believe it.

Ukrainian soldiers gathered in the Sumy region on August 16. (Reuters)

Ukrainian Army: Careful preparation

The Ukrainians seemed to have carefully prepared for the attack. Unlike previous invasions, which were very limited in numbers, ranging from a few dozen to a hundred men, this time they deployed thousands of well-trained soldiers. "They went back to mobile warfare and formed mobile groups, where they arrived in small groups very quietly, sometimes in civilian clothes, and then quickly gathered their forces," Odran explained.

Kiev's forces then breached the fortifications using a "first-person view" (FPV) drone, which is capable of striking any target with great precision. "This is the first time we've seen these machines used so much in terms of fire support; usually we call it artillery support," Odran noted.

"This is the peak: they (Ukrainians) are hardly advancing anymore, even if they are attacking certain locations to capture the high ground," Oderan continued. According to a report submitted by Alexey Smirnov, the acting governor of Kursk Oblast, to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian troops have taken control of 28 settlements. However, on August 13, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky claimed a higher number. He said on the "Telegram": "Despite the difficult and fierce fighting, our troops are continuing to advance in the Kursk region... (We) control 74 settlements."

Russia's counterattack was slow to organize. Moscow brought in some small forces from positions in Ukraine, but preferred to reinforce from Russia to avoid leaving the Donbass front empty. Thibaud Foye, director of the scientific department of the Institute for Strategic and Defense Studies, analyzed: "New resources are needed to launch a counterattack, and this takes time. The goal is to control the threat at the lowest possible cost."

The next few days will be decisive: Will Ukrainian troops withdraw, restart their offensive, or try to hold their ground? The last assumption would put them at risk of another war of attrition in Russia's favor. A sustained hold in the Kursk region would be a challenge for the Ukrainians, as their supply lines would likely be vulnerable to enemy fire.

This article was published on the website of the French newspaper Le Monde on August 14. The original title was "How Ukraine easily entered Russia and held its position." The authors are Marie Rego and Faustine Vincent.