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On August 16, local time, the lower house of the Thai Parliament voted to elect Pheu Thai Party leader Petunthan Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin, as the new prime minister of Thailand.Petunthan, 37, becomes Thailand's youngest prime minister and the second female prime minister in history.

The election of Petunthan as the new prime minister of Thailand has, to some extent, ended the political turmoil in Thailand in recent times. In the previous ten days, the largest party in the lower house of the Thai parliament, the Future Forward Party, was dissolved, and then Prime Minister Setthala was dismissed, which caused concerns that Thailand has entered a new round of political crisis. Experts pointed out that Thailand is in the process of political transformation, and the game between various forces is still intensifying, so political turmoil is also expected.

Two political "earthquakes" in one week

In the past week, Thailand's political arena has experienced two "earthquakes":One was the dissolution of the Future Forward Party, which became the largest party in last year's House of Representatives election, and the other was the dismissal of Prime Minister Setiawan, who had been in office for less than a year.

On August 7, the Constitutional Court of Thailand ordered the dissolution of the ALP, arguing that the ALP had proposed amending Article 112 of the Thai Criminal Code on lese majeste, which was an attempt to subvert state power. The Constitutional Court also ruled that 11 members of the ALP's executive committee, including former ALP leader Pita, should not be allowed to engage in politics for 10 years.

Thailand held a lower house election in May last year. The Future Forward Party, which made its main campaign promises of cutting ties with the military and reforming royal-related laws, won the most seats and became the largest party in the lower house. The party's young leader, Pita, won the support of many young voters, creating an "orange storm".

However, the Far East Party failed to form a government due to the obstruction of the military-appointed Senate, and Pita's several attempts to become prime minister were unsuccessful. In the end, the Far East Party gave up forming a cabinet and became the largest opposition party in parliament.

On August 7, in Bangkok, Thailand, former leader of the Far East Party, Pita (center), arrived at the Far East Party headquarters after the Thai Constitutional Court ruled to dissolve the party. (Source: Xinhua News Agency)

The Pheu Thai Party, which won the second-largest number of seats, took over the power to form a government. After a series of "backstage deals", the Pheu Thai Party formed an 11-party ruling coalition, including parties with close ties to the military. Subsequently, the ruling coalition jointly nominated Pheu Thai Party's prime ministerial candidate Seta, who has little political experience, as the new prime minister of Thailand.

One point that many people paid attention to was that on the day Seta was elected as the new prime minister of Thailand, Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister of Thailand who had been in exile for 15 years and the core figure behind the Pheu Thai Party, returned to Thailand. It is generally believed that this is a reflection of the behind-the-scenes agreement reached between the Pheu Thai Party and the Thai military, which is to some extent intended to prevent the Future Forward Party from taking power.

But to the surprise of many, Setha's term did not last more than a year. On August 14, local time, the Constitutional Court of Thailand ruled to remove Prime Minister Setha from office. The Constitutional Court ruled that Setha's appointment of Phichit, who had been briefly imprisoned, as Minister of the Prime Minister's Office during the cabinet reshuffle in April this year violated the constitution, and therefore his position as prime minister must be terminated.

Phichit was briefly jailed in 2008 for contempt of court for allegedly trying to bribe court staff. In a cabinet reshuffle in April this year, Seta controversially appointed Phichit as minister in the Prime Minister's Office. Phichit subsequently resigned as minister in the Prime Minister's Office, but the Constitutional Court accepted a petition from the Thai Senate to terminate Seta's position.

"The dissolution of the Far East Party and the ruling that Setha's ruling was unconstitutional, the recent political changes in Thailand have vividly demonstrated the struggle and game between the three forces in Thai politics: the conservative forces that are pro-military and pro-bureaucratic groups, the emerging reformist forces led by the Pheu Thai Party, and the new forces represented by the Far East Party with a more radical stance."Xu Liping, researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Southeast Asia Research Center, said in an interview with the Beijing News.

Xu Liping believes that the recent political turmoil in Thailand can be said to be the "aftermath" of last year's general election. After last year's general election, the Far East Party, as the largest party, failed to successfully form a cabinet. The Pheu Thai Party, which initially agreed to form a coalition government with the Far East Party, abandoned the Far East Party and formed a coalition government with conservative forces. After that, Thailand's political arena seemed to have achieved stability, but the contradictions behind it have actually not been resolved, which has had an impact on Thailand's current politics.

How far Petuntan can go remains in doubt

Against this backdrop, Thaksin's daughter Petunthan became the new prime minister of Thailand. The lower house of the Thai parliament held a special session on August 16 to vote for the new prime minister. In the 493 seats in parliament, a person can be elected as prime minister if he gets more than 248 votes. In the end, Petunthan received 319 votes in favor, 145 against, and 27 abstentions.

Petunthan is the third prime minister of the Shinawatra family in Thailand. Before her, her father Thaksin and her aunt Yingluck had served as prime ministers. In addition, Thaksin's brother-in-law Somchai also served as prime minister for a short time.

On August 15, Pheu Thai Party leader Petongthan Shinawatra attended a press conference in Bangkok, Thailand (Source: Xinhua News Agency)

Setha of the Pheu Thai Party was dismissed, but then Petunthan, also from the Pheu Thai Party, became the new prime minister. This change in Thai politics is difficult for many people to understand. But Xu Liping believes thatThe Thai Constitutional Court's removal of Setha from office was, to some extent, a warning to Thaksin and the Pheu Thai Party, while accepting Petunthan as the new prime minister was giving the current coalition government a chance.

In fact, many people believe that the rift between Thaksin and Thailand's conservative forces has long been apparent. In June this year, Thaksin, who had previously been pardoned, was accused of defaming the royal family because of his inappropriate remarks in an interview with South Korean media in 2015. Many people saw this as a sign of a rift between Thaksin and the conservative forces. In addition, Thaksin made many high-profile speeches after returning to Thailand, which aroused the dissatisfaction of the conservative forces.

"Although the Pheu Thai Party has reached an agreement with conservative forces to form a coalition government, the contradictions behind it still exist and the internal game is still very intense," said Xu Liping.If Petuntan does not perform well in future administration, conservative forces may put forward their own candidate for prime minister.

Xu Liping believes that being prime minister at this time is a severe test for Petunthan and a historical watershed for the Pheu Thai Party. "If she fails to seize this opportunity, the next prime minister may not come from the Pheu Thai Party."

It is reported that Petuntan was unwilling to get involved in this political struggle, and Thaksin was unwilling to let his daughter take over at this time. Petuntan's political resume is quite thin. She has only served as an advisor in the government and has no rich experience in governing. In addition, her public support rate is not favorable. According to a poll, only 6% of voters support her to be prime minister, which is lower than the support rate of former prime minister Seta and former leader of the Far East Party Pitta.

After becoming prime minister, Petuntan will face many practical challenges. Xu Liping said,In addition to continued political turmoil, Thailand is currently facing problems such as economic downturn, high unemployment rate, and a huge gap between the rich and the poor, all of which will test its wisdom and ability.Thailand is reportedly one of the worst performing markets in Asia this year, and the World Bank has previously lowered its economic growth outlook for Thailand to 2.4% in 2024.

Conflicts among various factions are still intensifying

Behind Thailand's recent political chaos is the growing conflict between conservative and progressive forces. Before the 2023 Thai general election, many people believed that Thailand was at a crossroads towards change. At that time, emerging political parties that were supported by young people and proposed to cut ties with the military and change Thailand gradually emerged, and many young people looked forward to Thailand changing the situation of the military government.

Thailand is a constitutional monarchy, but unlike many other constitutional monarchies, the Thai royal family is not a pure symbol of the country, but holds real power. The Prime Minister of Thailand exercises executive power and is responsible for handling the country's daily administrative affairs.

Over the past few decades, the Thai military has never left politics. One obvious manifestation is that Thailand has experienced many military coups. In 2006, former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was forced to step down by a military coup. Thaksin was elected Prime Minister of Thailand twice in 2001 and 2005. He was the first prime minister in Thai history to serve a full four-year term and the first prime minister to be re-elected through elections. However, in 2006, Thaksin was forced to step down in a military coup. At the same time, Thaksin faced a series of corruption charges. Over the past decade, Thaksin has been in exile abroad for a long time and only returned to the country last year.

In 2014, Thailand once again experienced a military coup. In May of that year, then-Army Commander Prayut overthrew then-Prime Minister Yingluck through a military coup and later became Prime Minister himself. Yingluck then went into exile abroad for a long time. Prayut's term as Prime Minister lasted nearly 9 years until he announced his retirement from politics in July 2023.

Prayuth's withdrawal does not mean that the Thai military will withdraw from politics. According to the new constitution that came into effect in 2017, all 250 members of the Thai Senate are appointed by the military-controlled National Peace and Order Maintenance Council. The Senate has great power, including passing legislation, reviewing and amending the constitution. At the same time, the Thai courts, especially the Constitutional Court, are also seen as a "bastion" of Thai royalists.

Some people believe that Thailand's conservative forces have cracked down on opposition forces through the Senate and the Constitutional Court, so even if some reformist parties gain an advantage in the general election, they will not be able to govern smoothly in the end. The Future Forward Party is an example. The party won the most votes and the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2023 general election, but ultimately could not escape the fate of being dissolved. Prior to this, the Future Forward Party, the predecessor of the Future Forward Party, was also ruled to be dissolved by the Constitutional Court in 2020.

Xu Liping pointed out,Thailand is currently in the process of political transition and political reform. A prominent feature of this process is that conservative forces use the judiciary to safeguard their interests - some people call it a "judicial coup". This actually reflects that Thailand's inherent political structure has not undergone fundamental changes, and the various factions are still in a stage of intensified conflicts.

However, Thailand's progressive forces are expected to continue to impact conservative forces. According to Thai media reports, after the dissolution of the Far East Party, 143 members of the party reorganized the party and changed their name to the People's Party. On August 14, the People's Party announced its opposition to the ruling to remove Setha, condemned the Constitutional Court for abusing its power, and said, "I believe that today's events will make all sectors of society more aware of the urgent need to draft a new constitution." On August 15, the People's Party also stated that it would not vote for the prime ministerial candidate of the Pheu Thai Party. On the same day, another opposition party, the Democratic Party, also voted to collectively withdraw from Friday's vote.

"Thailand has been on the road of political reform in recent years, but there have always been differences among the parties on issues such as the direction and intensity of reform." Xu Liping said that the current Pheu Thai Party and conservative forces have joined forces to jointly block new forces such as the Future Forward Party. They are all afraid that these new forces will have an overwhelming advantage in future elections, but there are also contradictions between the Pheu Thai Party and the conservatives.Therefore, the game between various forces will continue, and Thailand's political situation may continue to be turbulent.

Source: Political Affairs