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The overall economy continued to recover in July

2024-08-17

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Original title: New momentum is being cultivated and expanded at a faster pace, and high-quality development is being steadily promoted
The overall economy continued to recover in July (authoritative release)
Production and demand continued to recover, employment and prices were generally stable, new drivers were cultivated and expanded at a faster pace, and high-quality development was steadily promoted... In July, the national economy was generally stable, with steady progress, and the overall upward trend continued. At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office on August 15, Liu Aihua, spokesperson, chief economist, and director of the Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Economy of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced the national economic operation in July and answered questions from reporters.
Consumption continued to recover and investment continued to expand
Looking at the demand side of economic operations, in July, as various policies to expand domestic demand and boost consumption took effect, consumption continued to recover and the scale of investment continued to expand.
Looking at consumption trends, the total retail sales of consumer goods in July increased by 2.7% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points faster than in June.
The retail sales of goods have accelerated. In July, the retail sales of goods increased by 2.7% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points faster than in June. Among the 18 categories of goods in units above the designated size, the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of 10 categories of goods rebounded.
Service consumption grew rapidly. From January to July, service retail sales increased by 7.2% year-on-year, 4.1 percentage points higher than the retail sales of goods in the same period. Driven by the summer tourism peak season, consumption of transportation services, tourism consulting and leasing services, and cultural and sports leisure services grew rapidly.
New types of consumption continue to expand. According to the data in July, the retail sales of communication equipment in enterprises above the designated size increased by 12.7% year-on-year, the retail sales of sports and entertainment products increased by 10.7% year-on-year, and the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 36.9% year-on-year. Digital consumption, green consumption, and healthy consumption have become new trends.
Online consumption has steadily increased. Driven by new formats such as live e-commerce and social e-commerce, from January to July, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 8.7% year-on-year, 5.2 percentage points faster than the total retail sales of consumer goods; accounting for 25.6% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared with the first half of the year.
Looking at the investment trend, from January to July, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 3.6% year-on-year.
Manufacturing investment plays a major role. From January to July, the growth rate of manufacturing investment was 5.7 percentage points higher than that of total investment, and its contribution to the growth of total investment was 62.2%, 4.7 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year.
High-tech industries are leading the way. From January to July, investment in high-tech industries increased by 10.4% year-on-year, 6.8 percentage points higher than total investment. Among them, investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services increased by 9.7% and 11.9% respectively.
Major projects made a great contribution. From January to July, investment in projects with a planned total investment of RMB 100 million or more increased by 7.6% year-on-year, driving the growth of total investment by 4.1 percentage points.
Equipment renewal has achieved remarkable results. Driven by the large-scale equipment renewal policy, from January to July, investment in equipment and tools increased by 17.0% year-on-year, contributing 60.7% to the growth of total investment; investment in technological transformation in the manufacturing industry increased by 10.9%, continuing to maintain double-digit growth, 7.3 percentage points faster than total investment.
Looking at external demand, the total value of imports and exports of goods in July increased by 6.5% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points faster than the previous month. The cumulative scale of imports and exports hit a historical high for the same period, and the quality and quantity of imports and exports of goods increased.
"Overall, market demand continued to recover in July. But we must also see that some problems in development and transition are still emerging, and the foundation for economic recovery needs to be further consolidated," said Liu Aihua.
Industrial production maintained rapid growth and the industrial structure continued to optimize
In July, under the combined effect of macroeconomic policies, accelerated growth of new drivers, and enhanced export-driven factors, industrial production maintained rapid growth and the industrial structure continued to optimize. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.1% year-on-year and 0.35% month-on-month. Specifically:
Nearly 60% of products in 80% of industries achieved growth. In July, among the 41 major industrial sectors, 33 industries achieved year-on-year growth in added value, accounting for 80.5%. Among the 597 major industrial products counted, the output of 354 products increased, accounting for 59.3%, nearly 60%.
Equipment manufacturing industry plays a "ballast stone" role. In July, the added value of equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 7.3% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than the previous month, driving the growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 2.4 percentage points, with a contribution rate of 47.9%, close to 50%.
New driving forces in the manufacturing industry are being cultivated and expanded at a faster pace. In terms of industries, the added value of high-end equipment industries such as aerospace and equipment manufacturing, electronic and communication equipment manufacturing, and computer and office equipment manufacturing increased by 18.1%, 13.1%, and 11.0% year-on-year in July, respectively, with growth rates accelerating by 8.8, 2.1, and 6.8 percentage points from June, respectively. In terms of products, the output of civil drones increased by 84.7% year-on-year, service robots increased by 41.6%, integrated circuits increased by 26.9%, and industrial robots increased by 19.7%, all of which achieved rapid double-digit growth.
Green industries and green products are growing rapidly. In July, the output of new energy vehicles increased by 27.8% year-on-year, the output of polysilicon increased by 27.3% year-on-year, and the output of wind turbines increased by 39.6% year-on-year.
The international competitiveness of industrial products continues to improve. Since the beginning of this year, although the international economic and trade environment is complicated, the growth of industrial product exports has accelerated. In July, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.4% year-on-year, 2.6 percentage points faster than the previous month. Among the 39 major industries with exports, 33 industries achieved export growth, and the growth rate reached 84.6%. Among them, the export delivery value of the automobile industry maintained double-digit growth for 8 consecutive months; general equipment, special equipment, and chemical industries also achieved double-digit growth.
Enterprises remain optimistic. In July, the enterprise production index was 50.1%, and the enterprise production and operation activity expectation index was 53.1%, continuing to be in the expansion range.
We have the foundation and conditions to overcome the problems in development and transformation
Looking ahead to the next stage, Liu Aihua said that the economic operation faces some new difficulties and challenges, the external environment is becoming more complex, and unstable and uncertain factors have increased significantly; domestic effective demand is insufficient, the pain of the transformation from old to new growth drivers is emerging, and there is a differentiation in development between different fields. In addition, short-term factors such as high temperature, heavy rain, and floods have also caused certain disturbances to economic operations.
"We must enhance risk awareness and bottom-line thinking and actively respond to risks and challenges, while also maintaining strategic determination and firm confidence in development, seeing that favorable conditions for my country's economic development still outweigh unfavorable factors, and the stable and long-term positive development trend will not change," said Liu Aihua.
From the production side, new momentum is increasingly becoming a new engine of economic growth.
The transformation and upgrading of traditional industries has been steadily advancing, and emerging industries have developed rapidly. The quality and upgrading of industries have added new impetus and advantages to economic development. From January to July, the added value of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 0.6 and 0.9 percentage points year-on-year respectively; intelligent green products such as virtual reality equipment and new energy vehicles have maintained double-digit growth, and new economic growth points have gradually formed, which is conducive to enhancing economic momentum.
From the demand side, market potential and policy effectiveness are expected to drive continued recovery in domestic demand.
"The market is the most scarce resource. my country has a population of more than 1.4 billion, and its per capita GDP has exceeded US$12,000 for three consecutive years. We are currently in a period of accelerated release of consumption potential." Liu Aihua said that recently, various regions and departments have stepped up efforts to promote the quality upgrade of consumption, and continuously optimized consumer supply around new national products and regional characteristics. New types of integrated consumption such as parent-child travel, performance travel, event travel, and film and television travel have developed rapidly, becoming a highlight that drives consumption growth.
Next, with the gradual implementation of the "Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of Service Consumption" and "Several Measures on Strengthening Support for Large-Scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in", coupled with the arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the potential of the domestic consumer market is expected to be further released. In terms of investment, with the acceleration of the construction of "double" construction projects, investment in short board areas, weak links, new tracks and new fields has shown good growth, and the scale of investment is expected to continue to expand.
From the policy perspective, the intensity of macroeconomic policies has been continuously increased and the effects have been continuously released.
Liu Aihua said that the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee deployed a series of major reform measures, which will help to resolve deep-seated institutional and mechanism obstacles and structural contradictions, stimulate the enthusiasm, initiative and creativity of business entities, and further build social consensus, boost market confidence and stimulate endogenous momentum.
In the future, as major policies are implemented and take effect, major initiatives are accelerated, the issuance of special bonds and ultra-long-term treasury bonds is accelerated, and the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientations such as fiscal policy and monetary policy is enhanced, it will help form a powerful synergy to promote economic growth and provide favorable conditions for consolidating the upward trend of the economy.
"Overall, despite facing many risks and challenges, China's economic development still has favorable conditions. It has the foundation and conditions to overcome problems in development and transformation and promote sustained economic recovery." Liu Aihua said that at present, the key is to promote the effective implementation of various decisions and arrangements and transform development potential into momentum for high-quality development.
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