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Ten days have passed since the Ukrainian army suddenly launched a cross-border attack on Russia's Kursk region, and the situation remains unclear. Although the Ukrainian army has controlled a large area, it still seems a bit far from the strategic goal of changing the situation in eastern Ukraine and gaining bargaining chips; Russia has also failed to drive away the Ukrainian army in the Kursk direction as quickly as expected by the outside world, and is still in a passive defensive state.

Although Russian President Vladimir Putin made a clear request to the Russian army on the 12th: "Drive the Ukrainian army out of our territory, eliminate the enemy, and ensure the security of the border," all signs show that the Russian army is still on the defensive. The U.S. "Dynamics" website said on the 14th that the latest satellite images show that Russia is building trenches near the town of Ligov, about 30 miles north of the border in Kursk Oblast, to stop the Ukrainian army's attack. The U.S. think tank "War Research Institute" said on the 13th that Ligov is about 13 miles away from the nearest occupied area of ​​the Ukrainian army. If the Ukrainian army really approaches this line of defense of the Russian army, it means that the area it controls will be much larger than it is now.

Satellite photos show Russian trenches built in Kursk

The report said that the trenches being dug by the Russian army are parallel to the E38 highway that runs through central Kursk. Satellite photos show that these trenches were built a week ago, but no other obvious fortifications can be seen. They are also not as large as the "Surovikin Line" established by Russia in the Zaporizhia direction last year. These lines of defense, consisting of multiple trenches, fortifications and minefields, played an important role in preventing Ukraine's summer counterattack. Given that the Ukrainian army is still far away from these trenches, the area may not have begun to lay mines, but this cannot be judged from satellite photos.

The report also mentioned that the Russian Satellite News Agency quoted the Russian Ministry of Defense's war report that the Russian army is still "repelling the Ukrainian army's offensive attempts" instead of actively launching an attack on the Ukrainian army. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on the 14th that "the Ukrainian army lost about 270 soldiers and 16 armored vehicles in one day, including 2 tanks, 1 'Stryker' armored personnel carrier, 13 armored fighting vehicles, 10 vehicles and 1 122mm D-30 howitzer." The Russian army also released a video of using the "Lancet" cruise missile to hit the Ukrainian army's American-made "Stryker" armored personnel carrier in the border area of ​​Kursk Oblast.

Major General Apti Alavdinov, commander of the Russian "Akhmat" special forces and deputy director of the Military and Political Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense, revealed that detailed information about the Ukrainian army's actions in Kursk Oblast has been received. The Ukrainian army originally planned to capture the nuclear power plant in Kurchatov on August 11 and sent all its reserve forces in this direction, but the mission was not completed. "Most of the equipment sent to Kursk has been destroyed."

As to why the Russian army has been slow to launch a counterattack in the direction of Kursk, an analysis published on the website of the Austrian Armed Forces stated that the short-term strategic goal of the Ukrainian army's offensive in Kursk is to boost the morale of the domestic people; the medium-term goal is to force the Russian army in the Donbas region to return to support, thereby weakening Russia's advantage in the area; in the long run, Ukraine's goal is to improve the battlefield situation in order to gain more favorable bargaining chips in negotiations. The analysis stated that current information shows that the Russian troops reinforcing Kursk mainly come from the "Northern Cluster" and other regions in Russia, rather than the main Russian army that is fighting fiercely in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, indicating that the Ukrainian army's strategy of "encircling Wei to save Zhao" has not worked yet. The report also mentioned that the Russian army is still in an active offensive state on other fronts of the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, and the offensive has not weakened significantly. Only the number of satellite-guided glide bombs dropped by the Russian Aerospace Forces in these directions has decreased, and instead more videos of glide bombs dropped in the direction of Kursk have been released.

The website "Dynamics" said that the price of the Russian army's failure to withdraw its main force to provide support is the current passive situation in the Kursk direction. Currently, most of the conscripts drawn from other parts of Russia are poorly trained and poorly equipped, making it difficult for them to take the responsibility of active attack. Western media have also repeatedly claimed that if the Ukrainian army gains a long-term foothold in Russia, it will greatly damage Russia's national image.

The Moscow Times also revealed that after the Ukrainian army entered the Kursk region, the railway system in the border area between Russia and Belarus "faced collapse." The Belarusian Railway Workers' Union quoted industry sources as saying that due to the difficulty of train operation, Russian Railways has stopped accepting trains from Belarus to Kursk and Smolensk regions. It is said that the reason why Russian Railways made this decision was due to the large-scale mobilization of troops by the Russian army to the Kursk region, "almost all available locomotives and carriages were requisitioned."

Global Times special correspondent Chen Yang