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For most of the time before announcing his withdrawal from the race, U.S. President Biden's public opinion rating lagged behind that of Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Trump. At the time, Biden was the presumptive presidential candidate of the Democratic Party. He held many campaign events but failed to change the trend of lagging behind Trump in the polls.

However, after Biden announced his withdrawal from the race in late July and nominated Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate, Harris reversed the Democratic Party's lagging trend in public opinion and even reversed the polls. According to data from the US polling agency FiveThirtyEight, after Harris took over from Biden, the national average poll has almost always been ahead of Trump. More importantly, data from multiple polling agencies show that Harris is also slightly ahead of Trump in the polls in several key swing states.

With less than three months to go until the US election, the competition between Harris and Trump is heating up. On September 10, the two will stand on the debate stage to officially confront each other. Facing Harris, who is in the "honeymoon period" of public opinion, whether Trump will suffer a similar defeat to Biden in the debate in June this year will become a focus for some time to come. However, there is still great uncertainty as to how long Harris' "honeymoon period" will last and whether she can defeat Trump in the general election in November.

Harris leads Trump in key swing states

On July 21 this year, under heavy pressure from within the party, 81-year-old US President Biden announced his withdrawal from this year's presidential election and expressed support for nominating 59-year-old Vice President Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate. Harris won the Democratic nomination quite smoothly. On August 1, she received enough support from party delegates to lock in the Democratic nomination. On August 5, Harris officially won the Democratic nomination.

Judging from national polls, she has lived up to the Democrats' expectations. FiveThirtyEight data shows that from July 24 to August 14, Harris's national average poll has been ahead of Trump, and her lead is expanding. On August 14, Harris's national average poll approval rating was 46.2%, 2.6 percentage points higher than Trump.

Data from RealClearPolling, another US polling agency, showed that from July 27 to August 12, Harris led Trump by 0.9 percentage points with an average poll approval rating of 47.9%. Trump's average poll approval rating during this period was 47%.

In addition to national polls, Harris is also ahead of Trump in several key swing states. Poll data released by the Cook Political Report on August 14 showed that Harris was ahead of or tied with Trump in most swing states. This is completely opposite to the results of the survey in May, which showed that Trump was leading or tied with his opponent in key swing states with a solid advantage.

In the US election, the traditional red and blue states (Note: red states represent states that support the Republican Party, and blue states represent states that support the Democratic Party) have received less attention. Presidential candidates basically focus their campaigns on swing states, and the election results in these states often have a decisive influence on the final results.

The Cook Political Report survey, conducted from July 26 to August 2, showed Harris slightly ahead of Trump or at least tied with Trump in six of the seven key swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Only Nevada currently has Trump slightly ahead of Harris.

This is similar to the results of a recent New York Times/Siena College poll released on August 10, which showed Harris with 50% support in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, while Trump had 46% support in these three states.

"For the Democratic Party, Harris' lead in the polls is definitely a good sign. Although the final election results are still in great doubt, Harris clearly has a greater chance of winning than Biden." Rogers Smith, professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, said in an interview with the Beijing News that the young "new face" Harris has brought enthusiasm to Democratic voters and hope to Democrats, so her poll data is better than Biden's.

But a more important reason why Harris can lead is that Harris is not Biden and Trump. "Most Americans actually strongly hope for a new choice, a new choice that is not Trump and Biden, two older candidates that voters are already familiar with." Smith said that Harris is this new choice, so no matter what limitations she has, she can bring some stimulation to the Democratic Party's election.

Liu Weidong, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, holds a similar view. He told the Beijing News that the sharp improvement in the Democratic Party's election situation after Harris became the Democratic presidential candidate was expected. "One of the main reasons why Harris is ahead in the polls is that voters are too disappointed with Biden. Therefore, no matter who takes over after he withdraws from the election, voters' expectations for the new candidate will be higher than Biden." He said that this does not actually mean that Harris's policy proposals are attractive, but because she is a new face.

"Many American voters are tired of the battle between Biden and Trump and are dissatisfied with both candidates. When a new option emerges at this time, voters will naturally pay more attention to this 'newcomer'." Liu Weidong said that this is obviously beneficial to the Democratic Party, but it is difficult to say how long voters' enthusiasm for Harris can last.

September TV debate to be a major focus

Compared to Trump, who has run for president for three consecutive terms and announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election in November 2022, Harris is clearly still in the "honeymoon period" of running for president. The timing of her joining the presidential campaign is very special: more than a month before, Biden faced doubts about his ability from within the Democratic Party and voters because of his poor performance in the first presidential candidate debate in June. In the end, Biden was forced to withdraw from the election and Harris took over.

After taking over, the young, energetic and sharp-tongued Harris quickly gained support from all levels of the Democratic Party, including young voters, minority voters, Democratic Party funders, and Democratic Party members. On August 6, Harris chose Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz as her running mate for vice president, a decision that expanded her support base.

Trump is clearly a little uneasy about the sudden change in the Democratic Party and the backwardness in the polls. In the past few weeks, Trump has repeatedly criticized Harris, including accusing Harris of "suddenly becoming black" for election reasons and taking advantage of her minority identity.

Trump's remarks sparked controversy. White House spokesman Jean-Pierre called Trump's remarks "insulting" and said "no one has the right to tell someone what they should be." Harris also responded, saying Trump's false assertion about her race was an "old trick" and called on African-American women to unite and support her. Harris' father is Jamaican and her mother is Indian. She is the first South Asian and African-American female vice president in American history.

In addition, Trump also tried to question the legitimacy of Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate, calling Harris' rise "a scam." In a conversation with Elon Musk, Trump also condemned the Democratic Party's top brass for forcing Biden to withdraw from the election, calling it a "coup" against the US president. Some people worry that Trump's statements mean that if he loses to Harris in the November election, he may not easily admit defeat.

Liu Weidong said that Harris is currently leading in the polls, while Trump has fallen behind from the previous lead, so he will also be anxious, but it is too early to judge the outcome of the election. "There are still nearly three months to the election, and both sides still have the opportunity to redeploy their plans and adjust their campaign strategies."

"From Harris's perspective, voters don't actually know her very well, so she will need to further demonstrate herself in the future. On the one hand, this demonstration must continue many of Biden's policy propositions to gain the trust of the establishment, and on the other hand, she also needs to show her own characteristics to prove that she is not a 'puppet'." Liu Weidong said that Harris' campaign activities in the future and her several debates with Trump will be a good window for American voters to understand her.

The first head-on confrontation between Trump and Harris will come in September. On August 8, local time, Trump and Harris both expressed their agreement to participate in the first televised debate hosted by ABC on September 10. Trump also called on Harris to add two debates in September, one hosted by Fox TV and the other hosted by NBC. Harris did not agree to the latter two debates, but said that additional debates could be held.

In this US election, the presidential debate has received more attention on TV. One important reason is that the debate in June pushed Biden to withdraw from the election. Richard Bensel, a professor of political science at Cornell University in the United States, said in an interview with the Beijing News that in subsequent TV debates, the outside world will focus on Trump's performance.

Bensel said that Biden was forced to withdraw from the election due to what the outside world believed to be age and cognitive problems. Today's candidate Harris is much younger than Trump, so many observers and voters will focus on whether Trump has cognitive decline.

Smith also believes that the September 10th TV debate is very critical for both Harris and Trump. "If one of them performs very badly, it may seriously affect the subsequent public support of that candidate." Smith pointed out that both of them have weaknesses. From Harris's perspective, she lacks debate experience; from Trump's perspective, he also faces the same age problem as Biden, and is not used to being challenged by a sharp former prosecutor like Harris.

Regarding the election in the next three months, Bensel believes that the Republican Party is not expected to have any big "surprises" because Trump's base is relatively stable, and no matter how outrageous he and Vance do, it seems that they cannot change public opinion. But from the perspective of the Democratic Party, it faces greater variables. "The Democratic Party is currently in charge of governing the country and may face some emergencies. For example, some international events, if the Biden administration cannot handle them well, may weaken their chances of winning."

For the Democratic Party, one of the outstanding issues it is currently facing is how to deal with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. On August 7, local time, Harris' speech at a campaign event was interrupted by protesters, who shouted "We will not vote for genocide." In fact, over the past few months, demonstrators protesting the Gaza War have appeared at Biden's campaign rallies many times, calling on the Biden administration to pressure Israel to immediately cease fire.

The Gaza issue is exacerbating divisions within the Democratic Party. Although Biden has repeatedly called for a ceasefire, he has mostly avoided directly criticizing the Israeli government. In addition, U.S. military aid to Israel continues. On this issue, Harris faces a delicate balance. On the one hand, she needs to follow the Biden administration's diplomatic line, and on the other hand, she needs to attract more support from young voters and Arab voters in the campaign.

In any case, after Harris took over from Biden to represent the Democratic Party, the outside world generally believed that she had a much greater chance of defeating Trump and winning the election than Biden. But whether Harris can defeat Trump in the final battle remains an unknown. "The upcoming presidential candidate TV debates may have a stronger predictive effect on the election results than the fluctuating poll data. Therefore, we need to pay close attention to the debates between Harris and Trump in the coming period," said Liu Weidong. "As for the final result, it remains to be seen."

Beijing News reporter Xie Lian

Editor Zhang Lei Proofreader Zhang Yanjun