2024-08-15
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According to Xinhua News Agency, after the leader of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in an attack in Tehran, Iran, Iran determined that the incident was caused by Israel and vowed to retaliate. Two weeks have passed, but Iran has not yet retaliated against Israel. Why? If retaliatory actions are taken, how will they be implemented? What countermeasures will Israel take?
Why Iran didn't take action
Earlier, there were reports that Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah might launch an attack on Israel on August 12-13, the traditional Jewish memorial day for the destruction of the Temple. Several foreign media outlets also predicted that Iran would launch an attack on Israel before the next round of ceasefire talks between Palestine and Israel on August 15. A senior US official said on the 12th that Iran might launch a "major" attack on Israel "this week."
Some analysts believe that Iran is unlikely to engage in large-scale conflict or even war with Israel. The reason why Iran has been slow to take action is probably that it is weighing the pros and cons and carefully considering retaliation plans.
The US Institute for the Study of War recently published an article on its official website saying that Iran did not retaliate against Israel quickly, most likely because Iran wanted to ensure that the retaliatory action achieved the desired effect, both to demonstrate its deterrence against Israel and to avoid triggering a large-scale war in the region. The article believes that in April this year, in Iran's retaliatory action against Israel's attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria, the United States, Israel and other countries intercepted most of the missiles and drones launched by Iran, making the damage caused by Iran's attack far less than expected.