news

Interface News Reporter | Chen Shenglong

Interface News Editor | Liu Haichuan

Japan's ruling party is brewing a "major earthquake" in its leadership.

At 11:30 a.m. on August 14, 2024, Tokyo time, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held an emergency press conference at his official residence and officially announced that he would give up the LDP presidential election in September. This means that he will resign as prime minister at that time and be replaced by the new LDP president.

Fumio Kishida, 67 years old this year, became the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party's "Kishida faction" in 2012. He was elected as the 27th party president on September 29, 2021, and took office as the 100th prime minister on October 4 of the same year. He was elected as the 101st prime minister a month later.

The Liberal Democratic Party, which has been in power since 1955, advocates maintaining a free economic system, amending the peace constitution, and adhering to the Japan-U.S. security system. At the same time, it actively expands its diplomatic layout, including intervening in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and joining the "Okus" alliance. However, in the past three years, the Liberal Democratic Party has been mired in scandals such as "black gold" corruption and political divisions.

At today's press conference, Fumio Kishida said that under the new circumstances, the Liberal Democratic Party needs to be "reformed" and the first step is to step down. He also said that Japan should withdraw from the monetary policy that has led to continued deflation and promote the growth of wages and investment.

William Pesek, author of Japanization: What the World Can Learn from Japan's Lost Decades, said in a recent media interview that Kishida Fumio has achieved little in terms of economic reconstruction. As inflation exceeds wage growth, investors are worried that the stock market bubble is beyond the economic fundamentals, so leadership change has become an urgent need.

In early July, the LDP won only two seats in the nine constituencies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly by-election, which dealt another blow to Kishida Fumio. Former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, "Motegi faction" member Hiroyoshi Sasakawa and other LDP backbones and young lawmakers have repeatedly called on Kishida Fumio to step down, hoping to see a new face before the next general election.

According to a public opinion survey released by NHK on August 5, 25% of respondents supported the Kishida Cabinet, while 55% did not. According to the results of a public opinion survey conducted by Kyodo News that month, the support rate for the Kishida Cabinet has been below 30% for eight consecutive times.

The new national managers will face new challenges such as rising living costs for the people, serious political divisions, and intensified geopolitical situation after Trump's possible return to the White House.

The specific date of the LDP's September election has not yet been announced. Since there is no clear successor, Kishida Fumio's departure is bound to trigger a fierce competition for the LDP leadership. The aforementioned author of "Japanization" Pesek speculated that possible candidates include Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and former Foreign MinisterHayashi Yoshimasa, Taro Kono, the minister in charge of digitalization, and theTakaichi Sanae。

In a previous local media survey, Shigeru Ishiba, also 67 years old, became one of the most popular successors to Fumio Kishida.At the end of July, in a survey conducted by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun and TV Tokyo on "suitable candidates for the next prime minister", Shigeru Ishiba ranked first with 24% support, followed by Shinjiro Koizumi, former environment minister and son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi (15%), and Sanae Takaichi (8%).

Ishiba Shigeru has also served as Minister of Defense, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party, and other important positions in the cabinet and party. He has run for the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party four times since 2008, but all ended in failure.

Shigeru Ishiba advocated constitutional amendment, military expansion and the exercise of collective self-defense rights when he was defense minister in the cabinet of Yasuo Fukuda. He also recently expressed support for the Bank of Japan to gradually raise interest rates to lower prices and improve industrial competitiveness, although this would requireThe cost is short-term negative impacts such as the stock market crash.