Does Bangladesh's St. Martin Island trigger a game between the US and India?
2024-08-14
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Image description: The general shape of St. Martin Island in Bangladesh. (Source: Bangladesh Encyclopedia)
Our special correspondent Chen Yang
According to Indian media reports, former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina recently revealed that the reason she was ousted was that she refused to hand over Saint Martin Island to the United States, thus preventing the United States from gaining a strategic advantage in the Bay of Bengal. The news immediately attracted great attention from India and the United States. Previously, Bangladesh had repeatedly reported that the United States intended to control Saint Martin Island and build a military base. What kind of strategic position does this island have that can arouse the strong interest of the United States?
Complex historical entanglements
Several Indian media outlets reported on the 12th that Hasina, who is currently in India, said in a message sent to the media through her confidants: "I resigned as prime minister. If I had given up the sovereignty of St. Martin and allowed the United States to control the Bay of Bengal, I could have continued to govern. I beg the people of my country, 'Please don't be manipulated by radicals.'" According to reports, in June last year, there were rumors in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, that Washington demanded support for the People's Alliance government in exchange for St. Martin. Subsequently, a spokesman for the US State Department denied this. After successfully re-elected this year, Hasina revealed in a speech that during this year's election process, someone had offered her a "path" to easy re-election on the condition that she allowed foreign countries to build air bases in Bangladesh. However, she did not say the name of the country that made the proposal, only emphasizing that "the proposal came from a white man", but the outside world generally speculated that it was done by the United States.
According to reports, Saint Martin Island is located in the northeast of the Bay of Bengal and is also the southernmost tip of Bangladesh, very close to the northwest coast of Myanmar. Saint Martin Island is about 9 kilometers south of the Cox's Bazar-Teknaf Peninsula. Geologists believe that it should have been part of the peninsula, but the rising sea level caused the island to be separated from the rest of the peninsula and become an isolated island. It covers an area of only 3 square kilometers. Because there are a large number of coconut trees in the area, it is also called "Narikel Jinjira" (Coconut Island in Bengali). There are currently about thousands of residents in the area, mainly engaged in fishing, rice planting, coconut collection and other activities.
The Times of India said on the 12th that the history of Saint Martin's Island can be traced back to the 18th century, when Arab merchants first settled here. In 1900, a British survey team listed Saint Martin's Island as part of British India and named it after a Christian priest. There are also rumors that the island was named after Martin, the then deputy commissioner of Chittagong. During the gradual disintegration of the British colonial empire, the ownership of the island has changed several times. In 1937, when Myanmar gained independence from British India, Saint Martin's Island was assigned to British India despite being very close to Myanmar. When India and Pakistan were partitioned in 1947, the island became part of Pakistan.
Bangladesh's Daily Star reported that after Bangladesh's independence in 1971, the coral island became part of Bangladesh. In 1974, Bangladesh and Myanmar reached an agreement to confirm that Saint Martin Island became part of Bangladesh's territory, but Bangladesh and Myanmar still have long-standing disputes over the island's maritime boundary. In 2012, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea made a ruling on the maritime boundary dispute between Bangladesh and Myanmar in the Bay of Bengal, ending the decades-long maritime boundary dispute between the two countries, but reports said that Bangladeshi fishermen may still face detention and shooting warnings from the Myanmar Navy when they go to the island to fish.
In addition, since 2017, a large number of Rohingyas have gathered in the Kutupalong refugee camp near Cox's Bazar, which is one of the largest refugee camps in the world. Since Cox's Bazar is very close to St. Martin's Island, Indian media said that "Myanmar's ethnic local armed groups have tried several times to claim sovereignty over the island." At the same time, due to occasional shootings between Myanmar government forces and local armed groups in the country, the Bangladesh Navy has also deployed warships around St. Martin's Island.
Close to important shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean
Regarding the strategic position of St. Martin, the Times of India mentioned that since the establishment of Bangladesh in 1971, the island has attracted great attention from the international community because of its geographical location close to the Bay of Bengal and the maritime border issue with Myanmar. According to the Indian newspaper The Print, for decades, there have been rumors in Bangladesh that the United States wants to "take this key strategic island for itself" and hopes to use the island to strengthen its presence in the region. Last June, Hasina accused the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, of intending to sell St. Martin to the United States to build a military base in exchange for victory in the January general election. However, the US State Department denied these claims, declaring that "the United States is committed to respecting Bangladesh's sovereignty and promoting democracy through free and fair elections."
Indian media also recalled that the geopolitical debate on the island dates back to at least the 1980s. On December 18, 1980, a report titled "No one shall establish a naval base on St. Martin" published a statement from the Bangladesh Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which clearly mentioned that the accusation of some political parties that "a certain country" was allowed to establish a naval base on St. Martin was completely unfounded. In addition, there is some historical evidence that the United States did intend to establish a military base in Bangladesh before. In an interview with the country's media last year, Bangladeshi writer and researcher Muhiddin Ahmed said that he had heard about leasing Manpura Island to the United States in 1971. On February 28 of that year, Hasina's father, then Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, held a meeting with US Ambassador to Pakistan Joseph S. Farand. It is said that the topic of the meeting was about handing over Manpura Island to the United States in exchange for Washington's support.
Indian media said that the United States' interest in St. Martin's Island today may be due to the belief that establishing a military base on the island "will help Washington counter China's influence in the Indian Ocean." An analysis published in India Today recently said that St. Martin's Island's geographical location, proximity to the Bay of Bengal and maritime border with Myanmar may be the reason for the international community's interest in the island. The report said that St. Martin's Island has important strategic value, mainly because it is close to the Strait of Malacca, one of the busiest maritime trade routes in the world. Using the island as a base, Indian Ocean shipping through the Bay of Bengal can be monitored and even interfered with. Considering that China is increasing its investment in Bangladesh and Myanmar through the Belt and Road Initiative, establishing a military base on St. Martin's Island will provide the relevant countries with unparalleled surveillance capabilities in the Bay of Bengal, including keeping track of China's investment and activities in the area around the Strait of Malacca. "The island's geographical location also allows for monitoring trade and military activities in the region, making it a coveted asset for global powers such as the United States." In addition to its strategic military value, St. Martin's Island is also an important economic and environmental asset for Bangladesh. The exclusive economic zone near the island contains valuable marine resources such as fish, oil and natural gas. Therefore, the Indian media believes that although the United States denies any plans to take control of St. Martin, the island’s geopolitical significance cannot be underestimated.
Some analysts also believe that the United States has only one permanent military base in the Indian Ocean, Diego Garcia, which is far away from the main shipping lanes of the Indian Ocean. In order to increase its military fulcrum in the Indian Ocean, they have always been interested in related islands including St. Martin Island.
Indian nuclear submarine base under threat
India’s “swarajyamag” also complained on the 12th that in addition to countering “China’s influence in the Indian Ocean” regarding the US’s establishment of a military base on St. Martin Island, India may also be another victim - it is very close to India’s most important nuclear submarine facilities.
According to the report, many of India's most critical military infrastructure are located on the eastern coastline, including Visakhapatnam, the headquarters of the Indian Navy's Eastern Naval Command, and the Varsha Naval Base under construction, which will deploy India's strategic missile nuclear submarines. In addition, Abdul Kalam Island, where India tests tactical and strategic missiles, is also located off the coast of Odisha.
If the United States establishes a military base on St. Martin, it will be close to India's sea-based nuclear deterrent force, a major weapons testing facility and naval headquarters, directly touching New Delhi's major red line. For example, when the US military conducts operations on St. Martin, it may pay close attention to the movements of India's strategic missile nuclear submarines. Considering that India will only have two or three such nuclear submarines available in the short to medium term, if their whereabouts are always exposed to US military surveillance, it will greatly weaken the effectiveness of India's sea-based nuclear deterrence. The US military can also monitor India's missile tests from St. Martin and collect data, which can help them predict or identify the capabilities of these missiles.
In addition, considering the inexperience of Indian submarine crews and the noise of strategic missile nuclear submarines, the Indian Navy may adopt a "fortress strategy" - deploying its strategic missile nuclear submarines close to its coastline and under the cover of other shore-based firepower. This strategy will allow Indian nuclear submarines to launch nuclear missiles from relatively safe waters. But the US base on St. Martin may jeopardize the Indian Navy's "fortress strategy" because the US military's surveillance capabilities "will be disturbingly close to India's protected waters."
The report also warned that the United States has always been hostile to countries that do not obey its instructions. "For example, when Saudi Arabia did not obey the US order to stop the attack on Yemen, the United States blocked the sale of key bombs and weapons to the country." Considering that India now has a different position from the United States on many issues such as Bangladesh and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, many Indians believe that India may also be retaliated by the United States. "This is why the establishment of a military base by the US military on St. Martin Island close to India will cause security concerns in India." ▲
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