news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

[Multiple factors have caused the reversal of the trend of the "global economic barometer". First, the copper inventory registered by the world's three major exchanges exceeds 500,000 tons; second, the global manufacturing industry has not yet shown signs of stabilization; third, the US election has also brought challenges to multiple demand scenarios to a large extent. Previously, the growing long-term demand for new energy industries and electric vehicles became the reason for investors to enter the market. ]

The disappointing U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for July shook confidence in a soft landing for the world's largest economy, causing global stock markets to plunge and bets on rate cuts to surge. Investors' abandonment of the popular yen carry trade played a major role in the sell-off, complicating the mapping of asset prices to the economic outlook.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase recently raised the probability of recession to 25% to 35%. Investors need to be on guard against related risks and spillover effects after experiencing a round of panic selling.

The job market is foggy

The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% in July amid a sharp slowdown in hiring, reaching the trigger point for the "Sam's Rule" and fueling recession fears. The rule states that a recession is underway when the three-month rolling average of the unemployment rate is half a percentage point above the prior 12-month low.

Still, many economists believe the reaction to the data is exaggerated given the potential for it to be distorted by immigration and Hurricane Beryl, a view supported by the latest jobless claims data released Thursday.