Ukrainian troops attack Russian mainland, the situation is complicated and confusing
2024-08-14
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This article is transferred from [CNR Military];
In his video speech on the evening of August 10, Ukrainian President Zelensky acknowledged for the first time that the Ukrainian army was launching an attack on the Russian border area.
On August 10, Russia said it had evacuated tens of thousands of people from Kursk Oblast and launched an "anti-terrorist operation" in three states. On August 11, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said on social media that the Russian army would soon respond strongly to the Ukrainian army that attacked the Russian border area.
Why is it so late to admit it?
On August 10, Russia stated that the Ukrainian army's actions in the Kursk region were the largest attack launched by the Ukrainian army on Russian territory since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
At the beginning of the attack, Ukraine remained silent. A few days later, Ukrainian President Zelensky admitted for the first time that it had attacked Russia. Military observer Teng Jianqun analyzed this.
Teng Jianqun：
Initially, the outside world believed that Ukraine's attack on Russia's Kursk region might be "harassment". After several days of development, it can be seen thatThis offensive was a completely organized, large-scale, and even campaign-scale operation.
This timeUkraine's regular troops enter Russia's political influence, far beyond its military significance; Zelensky has just admitted that the attack on Russia is also a political consideration.
"Gambling" means "bargaining"
Regarding the Ukrainian army's attack on Kursk, some sources believe that "this is Zelensky's most risky decision so far."
Teng Jianqun gave an explanation on this.
Teng Jianqun：
Judging from the development trend of politics, diplomacy, battlefield and future negotiations, I thinkThis is not just a simple military adventure. Zelensky is taking a "gamble" and wants to "bargain" with Russia in future negotiations by holding on to relevant Russian territories and regions., European and American countries’ support for Ukraine may also be strengthened as a result.
Simultaneous ground-air strikes
On August 8, local time, the Russian Federation Armed Forces attacked Ukrainian armored vehicles in Kursk Oblast (Source: CCTV Today's Focus)
It is reported that the Ukrainian army has mobilized at least five brigades, including four army mechanized brigades and one independent air assault brigade, to participate in the raid on the Russian mainland. The total force may reach tens of thousands of people, with about 600 armored vehicles involved.
Military observer Teng Jianqun analyzed that at present, Russia is mainly carrying out counterattacks from two aspects: ground defense and air strikes.
Teng Jianqun：
I believe that Russia will strengthen its ground defense and will also intensify its attacks on the Ukrainian army through means such as long-range air strikes.
In the past two days, Russia has also carried out intensive bombing on relevant areas of Sumy Oblast in Ukraine to cut off the Ukrainian army's logistical supply lines.
Will NATO's "end" trigger a nuclear war?
It is reported that Arauddinov, commander of the Chechen special forces fighting in the Kursk direction and deputy director of the Main Military and Political Directorate of the Russian Federation Armed Forces, believes that the Ukrainian army's operations in the Kursk direction are led by the NATO command and that there are many French and Polish mercenaries in the Kursk direction.
Teng Jianqun believes that NATO's role in indirectly intervening in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is changing, and its impact on the regional security situation remains to be further observed.
Teng Jianqun：
In Russia's view, the Ukrainian army's attack on Russia's Kursk region was directed by NATO. Judging from the performance of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it may further escalate. NATO is now under the banner of "mercenaries". It is worth paying attention to whether it will throw away the "mask" of mercenaries and fight Russia in Kursk and other regions.
I believe that once a head-on conflict breaks out between NATO and Russia, it will not be a simple conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but may be a large-scale war in Europe, or even a war using nuclear weapons.
Reporter: Yu Lan
