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The Ukrainian army suddenly invaded the Kursk region of Russia a week ago, shocking the world. According to reports, Alexei Smirnov, the acting governor of the Kursk region of Russia, reported to President Putin that the current situation in the Kursk region is difficult and the Ukrainian army has controlled 28 local settlements.

So far, the strategic goal of Ukraine's move is unclear. Experts are currently analyzing why Ukraine took this action, but due to the lack of exact information, all assessments of Ukraine's actions remain speculative. Matthew Ford, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Sussex in the UK and an expert on war, said: "We are not people sitting in a bunker in Kiev."

A senior Ukrainian security official who wished to remain anonymous recently provided at least three "reasons for the offensive". According to him, the purpose is to "stretch out the opponent's front (i.e. disperse the troops), inflict maximum losses on them, undermine the domestic situation in Russia... and shift the battlefield to Russian territory". At the same time, this can also ease the pressure on Ukrainian troops in Donbass (eastern) as Russian troops continue to advance there.

Finally, he said that Russia will "stop" Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region sooner or later. But these Russian lands taken by the Ukrainian army "may be used for political purposes", such as being turned into bargaining chips at the negotiating table during peace talks.

At present, experts believe that there may be several factors as to why the Ukrainian army chose to attack and enter the Kursk region.

Seize the opportunity to attack:

Half a month after the West "permitted"

The Ukrainian Army Commander-in-Chief "took a gamble"

After sending a large number of ground troops into Russian territory, Ukraine's supply lines will be further strained. So why did the Ukrainian military officials take such a high-risk action at this time? British military analyst Nick Patton Walsh pointed out that this operation was not started randomly, but was launched when Ukraine "began to see concrete benefits from the Western weapons that finally arrived."

It is reported that earlier this month, Ukraine finally officially received the F-16 fighter jets. In mid-July, a senior Ukrainian Security Service official (codenamed "Bankiel") revealed that after more than two years of defending against Russian attacks on the front line, he and his troops were finally able to strike Russia's most painful point: inside Russian territory. Bankiel said that the United States and other allies gave "permission" to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons to attack Russian territory, which had a huge impact. In this regard, Walsh said that Serski, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces who took office in February, "took a gamble."

Russian military expert Alexi Leonkov believes that Ukraine hopes to ease the pressure on the Ukrainian army by launching an offensive in the direction of Kursk Oblast and pressuring the Russian army to withdraw its troops from other directions such as Donetsk.

Capture the "target audience":

Support for Ukraine

Western countries show hesitation

Matthew Ford, a lecturer in international relations at Britain's University of Sussex and an expert on war, noted that Western observers - some of whose governments have shown hesitation to support Ukraine - may have been the "target audience" for the attack.

Matthew Saville, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said Ukraine may want to send a "signal to international supporters that Ukraine is still fighting" before the US election. Patrick Bury, a military analyst at the University of Bath in the UK, believes that this may indeed be the core of Ukraine's thinking: "Ukraine believes that it is at high risk and must act now."

Some analysts also believe that the United States will hold a general election this year, and there is uncertainty in the post-election aid policy to Ukraine.NATOFormer official Stephanie Babst believes that Ukraine may hope to show the West its ability to put pressure on Russia through the raid in order to gain more military aid.

The attack could also be intended to "boost Ukrainian morale after months of defense," Savile said. For much of the year, Ukrainian forces have had little opportunity to advance on the front lines, and its most notable strikes this year — against Russian oil facilities or naval drone attacks in the Black Sea — have been far from ground combat sites.

With primary defenses so dependent on Western support, Ford said taking the initiative in Ukraine could only help morale. “You need some way for everyone to feel like they do have control over their future and are not just dependent on what the West wants to do.” Still, he said, “if the damage is hard to make up, the effects could be reversed quickly.”

Ukraine analyst Peter Dickinson believes the fight could also be a risky test of Russian President Vladimir Putin's bottom line.

"Territory for territory"?

Fight for bargaining chips

Control of the Russian-European natural gas transportation transit station

According to Xinhua News Agency on August 13, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on the 12th that Ukraine's attack on Russian territory is aimed at enhancing Ukraine's position in negotiations, and Russia will respond firmly to the attack.

When Putin held a meeting on the situation on Russia's southern border that day, he emphasized that Ukraine, with the help of the West, was trying to improve its position before possible negotiations, and that "the main task of the (Russian) Ministry of Defense is to drive the enemy out of our territory."

Conrad Muzyka, an independent defense analyst who just returned from eastern Ukraine, said that time is running out for Ukraine. The $60 billion U.S. aid package approved earlier this year can only last for a year or 18 months at most, and with Trump likely to win a second term in November, "Zelensky doesn't have much time to waste."

"Trump has Kiev worried, and Western foreign policy is fickle and easily exhausted. NATO's continued support is only an exception and cannot be seen as the norm." Walsh believes that Zelensky clearly sees that the possibility of peace talks is increasing and that Russia may be invited by the West - Ukraine must fight for a good "battlefield position" before the negotiations.

On August 12, local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky said on social media that he had convened a meeting of the Supreme Command. At the meeting, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Sersky said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces currently control about 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory.

Experts point out that this could be an opportunity for Ukraine to create bargaining chips in the "territory for territory" negotiation. If Ukraine holds on, the occupied Russian territory could become a bargaining chip in future negotiations. "I think this is the most likely strategic goal," Burry said. "It's high risk, high reward - seize some Russian territory and then use it to take back some of your own territory in negotiations."

Walsh said that another important goal of Ukraine is to control the supply of Russian natural gas. According to reports, the last pipeline that still supplies Russian natural gas to Europe passes through the city of Sudja in the Kursk region, with 42 million cubic meters of natural gas passing through the city every day.

Red Star News reporter Deng Shuyi compiled CCTV news (CCTV reporter Xu Hongbo) and others

Editor: Guo Zhuang, Editor-in-Chief: Deng Feiguang