Guangdong has more than 10,000 new crown infections per month. Zhang Wenhong: The new crown is similar to influenza
2024-08-12
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WHO warns: COVID-19 may resurge。
If it was two years ago, how much impact would it have if a province in China had more than 10,000 new coronavirus infections per month? Now it has only briefly become a hot search.Data released by the Guangdong Provincial Disease Control and Prevention Bureau showed that the number of new coronavirus infections in the province was 8,246 in June, and surged to 18,384 in July, with more than 10,000 new infections in one month. Monitoring by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention also showed that the infection rate of the new coronavirus continued to rise. In July, there were 203 new severe cases of the new coronavirus and 2 deaths in mainland China.Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University, commented in a COVID-19-related article recently published on the "Huashan Infection" official account that global novel coronavirus infections have entered a similar range of volatility, and the periodic fluctuations are related to strain mutations and periodic fluctuations in the strength of the immune barrier. The novel coronavirus has become similar to respiratory infectious diseases such as influenza, and has gradually become a periodic epidemic respiratory disease in my country, but the severity of the disease has remained relatively stable.The number of new coronavirus infections increases
Over the past week, many people have reported through social media platforms that they have tested positive and have developed symptoms of respiratory infection such as fever, cough, sore throat, and body aches.A patient who was infected with the new coronavirus for the third time told the "Medical World" that after two days of nasal congestion, she initially thought it was a cold that caused pharyngitis. On the third day of the disease, she began to experience muscle aches, low-grade fever, headaches and other symptoms. After self-testing, she was diagnosed with the new coronavirus, and it was not until the sixth day that she gradually got better.According to the national novel coronavirus infection data for July 2024 released by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on August 8, the positive rate of the new coronavirus in influenza-like cases in my country continued to rise from 8.9% in the 27th week (July 1st-July 7th) to 18.7% in the 30th week (July 22nd-July 28th), which is close to the peak of 21.1% in March.Compared with June, local cases in my country in July were all Omicron variants, and the main prevalent strains were JN.1 series variants and XDV series variants.It is worth noting that the proportion of XDV variants increased from 25.1%-32.9% in June to 38.8%-43.6% in July, becoming the current dominant strain. Studies have shown that compared with the JN.1 variant, the transmission, pathogenicity and immune escape ability of the XDV variants have not changed significantly.Therefore, these variants did not cause an increase in severe cases. In July, there were 203 new severe cases and 2 deaths in mainland China (both deaths from underlying diseases combined with COVID-19 infection), which was lower than the number of new severe infections in February and March this year (358 and 588 cases).Xiang Yun, deputy chief physician of the Department of Pediatrics at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, told the Medical World that the number of COVID-19 infections has increased significantly recently, but his hospital has not yet seen any severe COVID-19 cases. "This round of infection is relatively mild in terms of symptoms, just like a 'cold'."Lu Hongzhou, director of Shenzhen Third People's Hospital, said in an interview with "Yicai" that the hospital's fever clinic monitoring data showed that the positive rate of the new coronavirus has increased since July this year, accounting for about 20% of fever patients. About 10% of these new coronavirus-positive patients need to be hospitalized, and they are all older patients with other underlying diseases.Hospitalization rates rise in many countries, WHO issues warning
In addition to China, the number of new coronavirus infections is also surging in many countries and regions around the world.Last Tuesday, Maria Van Kerkhove, acting director of the WHO's epidemic and pandemic preparedness and prevention department, said at a press conference in Geneva that "the new coronavirus is still raging around us, and data from the sentinel surveillance system covering 84 countries show that the positive rate of SARS-CoV-2 tests has increased for several consecutive weeks."Maria Van Kerkhove/World Health Organization earlier data map
She said that the COVID-19 outbreak is surging across seasons in many countries. According to AFP, the current COVID-19 positive detection rate is slightly over 10% worldwide, and slightly over 20% in Europe.In May 2023, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus announced that the COVID-19 pandemic no longer constituted a "public health emergency of international concern." At that time, the global COVID-19 pandemic was on a downward trend, people's immunity increased after vaccination and infection, the mortality rate decreased, and the pressure on the health system was relieved.Since then, the amount of information received by WHO from various countries on the number of new COVID-19 infections and deaths has decreased, forcing health officials to confirm the trends of infections and hospitalizations caused by the new coronavirus through channels such as government websites and monitoring reports.Van Kerkhove introduced that only 35 out of 234 countries and regions provided this information. Based on the data available, new waves of infection have appeared in the Americas, Europe and the Western Pacific, and hospitalization rates in these three regions have increased.In addition, wastewater monitoring data can be used to analyze the spread of the new coronavirus. According to Van Kerkhove, wastewater monitoring data shows that the actual spread of the new coronavirus is 2-20 times higher than the existing data.“Because the virus is constantly evolving and changing, it puts all of us at risk for a potentially more severe virus that may evade our detection or medical interventions, including vaccination.”Van Kerkhove noted that over the past two years there has been an "alarming decline in vaccination coverage," particularly among "health care workers and people over 60," the two groups most at risk.“I am very concerned,” Van Kerkhove said, “that with such low vaccination coverage and such high levels of circulation, if we get more severe variants, the likelihood that people in high-risk groups will develop severe disease is very high.”WHO officials believe governments and their people have fallen into a state of complacency because the impact of COVID-19 is currently less than during the pandemic. However, they warn that the situation could get worse in the future as protection previously gained through infection and vaccination wears off.Why do COVID-19 infection rates increase in the summer?
In reminding people to be vigilant about the new coronavirus, WHO officials said the increase in new coronavirus infections was abnormal. This is because respiratory viruses tend to spread in cold climates, and it is not common for the infection transmission rate to be so high in the northern hemisphere summer.Why does this phenomenon occur? An infectious disease doctor who wishes to remain anonymous told the Medical World that a variety of factors, such as shortened social distance, low mask usage due to hot weather, and holiday travel, will increase contact between people in the short term, thereby increasing the probability of virus transmission."Most of us got the COVID-19 vaccine last year. Up to now, we haven't received a vaccine or a booster shot for at least 10 months. This may result in a weakening of the vaccine's protective effect." He said that the neutralizing antibody titer in the body will gradually weaken over time, and this weakening process is usually more obvious 6 months after vaccination.Lu Hongzhou also mentioned this. He said that the reduction of antibody levels in the human body may lead to a decrease in immunity to the new coronavirus. The increase in the flow and gathering of people during the summer vacation, as well as factors such as the environment and personal immune status, may also affect the spread of the new coronavirus.In addition, the increase in the number of new crown cases is not unique to this summer. The "7-day average sampling positive rate historical change chart" in California, the United States, shows that since 2020, every summer, the local area has experienced a peak in the sampling positive rate after July, which is second only to the winter. This pattern has not even been affected by large-scale vaccination.Historical changes in California's 7-day average positive rate from January 2020 to July 2023
Regarding the current situation of new coronavirus infections, WHO urges countries to continue to strengthen epidemic prevention measures."As individuals, you must take steps to reduce your risk of infection and serious illness." Van Kerkhove emphasized that although the number of severe cases is much lower than during the peak of the epidemic, high-risk groups should be vaccinated at least once every 12 months. "This will reduce your risk of severe illness. It will also reduce your risk of developing post-COVID sequelae (also known as long-term COVID). "The WHO also introduced that in the past 12 to 18 months, the supply of vaccines has dropped significantly due to the reduction in the number of manufacturers. In terms of vaccine updates, a nasal vaccine is under development, which is expected to further reduce the risk of new coronavirus mutation, transmission and severe illness in the future.At present, many hospitals in my country have issued notices to adjust the COVID-19 vaccine to self-paid vaccination from July 15. The "Announcement on the Results of the Heilongjiang Province COVID-19 Vaccine Access Review" previously released by Heilongjiang Province shows that a total of 8 COVID-19 vaccines have been selected.Among them, the most expensive is the inhaled recombinant novel coronavirus XBB.1.5 variant vaccine (adenovirus type 5 vector) produced by CanSino Biologics, with a price of 1,104 yuan for 0.5 ml/vial (3 human doses) and a single dose of 368 yuan. The cheapest is the nasal influenza virus vector COVID-19 vaccine produced by Wantai Biopharmaceuticals (603392), with a price of 126 yuan for 0.2 ml/vial.
Source: Medical Community
