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On August 11 local time, US media Axios quoted two sources with direct knowledge of the matter as saying that according to the latest assessment of the Israeli intelligence community, Iran has decided to directly attack Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas supreme leader Haniyeh in Tehran, and it is likely to take action in the next few days.

Intelligence shows that the attack may occur before the Gaza ceasefire negotiations scheduled for August 15, which is likely to jeopardize the negotiations. Israeli officials have previously stated that the negotiations on the 15th are the "last chance" for Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement.

But one of the sources with direct knowledge of the intelligence said the situation was "still fluid." Two sources said the intelligence assessment, which was drafted in the past 24 hours, showed the situation had changed.

Axios analysis said that in the past week, Israeli intelligence agencies believed that Iran had not yet decided on the timing and nature of its retaliation, and international pressure and internal debates might prompt Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei to postpone, limit or minimize retaliatory actions against Israel.

"We hope that our response will not harm potential ceasefire (negotiations) in terms of timing and manner," Iran's UN mission said in a statement on the 9th.

Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei

But a person familiar with the matter said that Israeli Defense Minister Galant said in a phone call with U.S. Defense Secretary Austin on the 11th that Iran's military preparations showed that Iran was preparing to launch a large-scale attack.

The leaders of Qatar, Egypt and the United States issued a joint statement on the evening of the 8th, calling on Israel and Hamas to resume negotiations in Doha or Cairo on the 15th to bridge all remaining differences and immediately begin implementing the agreement. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a statement in the early morning of the 9th, saying that Israel agreed to resume ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and planned to send a negotiation delegation on the 15th. However, Hamas announced on the 11th that it rejected the invitation to negotiate.

The US government has been trying to prevent a war between Israel and Iran and has negotiated hostage and ceasefire deals in Gaza. The outcome of the coming week will show whether the Middle East will fall into a deeper crisis and a prolonged war, or see its first major turnaround since the Israeli-Palestinian war broke out last year.