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On the 12th local time, the Israel Defense Forces said:About 30 rockets were fired from Lebanon towards northern Israel. Some of the rockets landed in open areas. No casualties were reported so far.The Israeli army then retaliated. Lebanon's Hezbollah announced on the same day that it had used multiple rockets to attack Israel's military headquarters in northern Israel.

Why did Lebanon launch 30 rockets? Does this mean that Lebanon and Israel will go to war in the future? What impact will it have on the current situation? Let's take a look at the interpretation of Niu Xinchun, professor of the Institute of Chinese Arab Countries at Ningxia University.

This wave of attacks does not mean the beginning of revenge

Niu Xinchun, professor at the Institute of Chinese and Arab Countries of Ningxia University:Hezbollah in Lebanon fired 30 rockets at northern Israel, but all of them landed on open ground, causing no casualties or property damage to Israel. Why is everyone so concerned about this? Because recently Hezbollah and Iran have been saying that they will soon launch a large-scale military retaliation against Israel, so many people are worried whether this is the beginning of Hezbollah's retaliation against Israel. At least judging from the number of the 30 rocket attacks, the targets and the effects of the attacks,This does not mean that Hezbollah has begun a new round of revenge against Israel.. Since October 8 last year, Hezbollah has been launching rockets, missiles and drones into northern Israel almost every day, causing sporadic casualties among Israeli personnel. Judging from the scale and location of this launch, Hezbollah did not attack Israeli military facilities, civilian facilities or major cities, so it was not a retaliation against Israel.

Tensions on the Lebanese-Israeli border are far higher than those between Iran and Israel

Niu Xinchun, professor at the Institute of Chinese and Arab Countries of Ningxia University:According to Hezbollah itself, this round of retaliation against Israel must hit Israeli military targets and major Israeli cities, such as Haifa, and cause Israel to suffer a certain degree of property and personnel losses. So according to this standard, this is not a formal retaliation, butIt is true that the situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border is the most tense now. It can be said that the possibility of a full-scale war breaking out between Lebanon and Israel is far greater than the possibility of a full-scale war breaking out between Israel and Iran.

Niu Xinchun, professor at the Institute of Chinese Arab Countries of Ningxia University: Because Iran and Israel are still more than 1,000 kilometers apart., so it is not so easy for the two sides to have a direct conflict. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel are bordering each other, so it is easy for the two sides to attack each other. In the past 10 months, Israel has been threatening to launch a full-scale war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and drive Hezbollah from the Lebanese-Israeli border to a place 29 kilometers north of the border. At the same time, Israel also hopes to resolve this matter through negotiations, but the negotiations have not been able to resolve it so far. After the recent crisis on the Lebanese-Israeli border, many people in Israel have advocated taking the opportunity to launch a thorough attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Therefore, the situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border is particularly tense, but so far, Hezbollah in Lebanon has not begun to retaliate, and the scale, time and intensity of its retaliation are not clear at present.