View the world·Middle East situation｜Diplomatic mediation is intensive, Iran insists on "fighting"
2024-08-08
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Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, August 8 (Xinhua) - Despite the close diplomatic mediation in front of and behind the scenes, Iran and its allies insisted that they would retaliate for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the Political Bureau of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas). On the other hand, Israel also took a tough stance, saying that if retaliated, the other side would pay a heavy price. Will the situation move towards a "limited" conflict or an "out-of-control" escalation?
“Never stop”
Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi visited the Iranian capital Tehran on the 4th and met with Iranian President Masoud Pezerhiziyan and Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani. Safadi urged the relevant parties to exercise restraint and warned that if a regional war breaks out, "it will have a devastating impact on everyone."
The Wall Street Journal reported on the 4th that the US government asked European allies and other partner governments to urge Iran to exercise "restraint" to avoid further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with King Abdullah II of Jordan and senior government officials from Qatar and Egypt. Blinken said on the 6th that the US is making diplomatic efforts "non-stop" and "all parties must exercise restraint to avoid escalation of the situation."
"We ... conveyed that message to Iran, and we conveyed that message directly to Israel," Blinken said.
Sergei Shoigu, secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council and former defense minister, visited Iran on the 5th and met with senior Iranian officials including Pezhichyan. Reuters reported on the 6th, citing two "high-level Iranian sources" who did not want to be identified, that Russian President Vladimir Putin called on Iran to exercise "restraint" in its retaliation through Shoigu. However, the content of this report has not been confirmed by Russian and Iranian officials.
Determined to "fight"
On July 31, Hamas political bureau leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. Iran believes that the assassination was carried out by Israel. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei said that Iran "has the responsibility" to avenge Haniyeh who was assassinated in Iran. According to the New York Times, Khamenei ordered a direct attack on Israel.
Ismail Haniya (center) was photographed in Tehran, Iran on July 30. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Shadati
According to the Islamic Republic News Agency of Iran, Pezeshitsyan said during his meeting with Shoigu that Iran has no intention of expanding the regional conflict, but will "definitely" respond to Israel's "crimes and arrogance". Bagheri discussed the assassination of Haniyeh by phone with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdul-Ati and Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg on the 6th. Bagheri said Iran will make a "decisive response" and criticized European countries and the United States for not condemning Israel's assassination.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on the 5th that Iran has conveyed to Israel through Hungary that Iran will "attack Israel."
Lebanese Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said on the 6th that Israel will "inevitably" take "strong revenge" for the assassination of Hezbollah's senior military commander Fuad Shukur. The revenge action may be carried out alone or in cooperation with other "resistance forces" such as Iran and Yemen.
After the latest round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict broke out in October last year, Hezbollah in Lebanon used rockets, drones and other weapons to attack Israeli targets in support of Hamas, while Israel launched artillery and air strikes. The conflict has recently shown an intensifying trend, causing concerns from the outside world about a sharp escalation of the situation.
The Iran-backed Houthi armed forces in Yemen also said on the 5th that they are formulating an "important plan" to attack Israel.
In the face of possible retaliation, Israel has shown a tough attitude. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said on the 4th that if Iran and its allies attack Israel, "they will pay a heavy price."
Dissuade and suspend flights
Concerned about the escalation of the situation, the US and British governments urged their citizens to evacuate Lebanon immediately on the 3rd. On the 4th, the French government also asked its citizens to evacuate.
The German government also called on its citizens to evacuate Lebanon as soon as possible. German media revealed that the German Bundeswehr is ready to send military transport planes and ships to Lebanon to evacuate its citizens if necessary.
Some other European countries also called on their citizens to leave Lebanon. Sweden announced that it would temporarily close its embassy in Lebanon and evacuate its staff.
Several international airlines, including Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, Air France, Lufthansa, and Alitalia, have suspended flights to Tel Aviv, Israel, or Beirut, the capital of Lebanon.
Due to the cancellation of a large number of flights and concerns about the escalation of the conflict, many people are preparing to leave Lebanon. A French female tourist told AFP that she had originally planned to vacation in Lebanon until the end of the summer, but her booked flight was cancelled and she was forced to change to other flights and return home early. A travel agency operator said that due to flight cancellations and a surge in customer demand, it is difficult to get a ticket for flights leaving Lebanon, especially to European countries. "Customers are calling like a tide. They are worried about being trapped in Lebanon and want to leave."
How will you fight?
Amal Saad, an international relations expert at Cardiff University in the UK, believes that Iran will try its best to avoid escalating its retaliatory actions into war, because Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah do not want to "fall into (Israeli Prime Minister) Netanyahu's trap" and allow Israel to take the opportunity to drag the United States directly into the war.
Iranian political analyst Ahmed Zedabadi speculated that Iran's retaliation this time would be "more severe" than its retaliation against Israel in April this year, but would not escalate into a "full-scale, out-of-control war."
On April 13 this year, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel in retaliation for Israel's airstrike on the consular building of the Iranian Embassy in Syria, which killed a senior commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. According to Israel, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones, but most of them were intercepted and Israel suffered little loss. A few days later, Iran said it had shot down several incoming drones without causing casualties or property damage.
Reuters reported on the 6th that two sources familiar with Israel's assessment of the situation said that if Iran or Hezbollah in Lebanon launches retaliation, the intensity of Israel's response will depend more on the extent of its own losses rather than the scale of the other side's attack.
As Israel's most important ally, the US government is "persuading peace", but at the same time it has stated that if Israel is attacked, the US will give Israel firm support.
The United States has begun to strengthen its military forces in the Middle East in preparation for escalating tensions. The Associated Press reported on the 7th, citing U.S. officials, that more than a dozen F/A-18 fighters and an early warning aircraft on the USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier in the Gulf of Oman have flown to a military base in the Middle East in preparation for Iran and its allies to retaliate against Israel.
The report did not disclose the location of the base. It also said that a squadron of US F-22 fighter jets is expected to arrive at the base from Alaska in the next few days.
Source: Xinhuanet
