The same Russian submarine was destroyed twice by Ukraine? US media: This is a bit strange
2024-08-07
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This article is reproduced from [Privy Council No. 10];
On August 3, the Ukrainian General Staff once again announced a "significant victory" - in the latest air strike on Sevastopol, the Russian Black Sea Fleet base on the Crimean Peninsula, a Kilo-class submarine was successfully sunk and an S-400 long-range air defense system protecting the base was destroyed. The relevant news has not been confirmed by Russia or the United States, but many Western media have noticed that the submarine that the Ukrainian army claimed to have "sunk" was being tested at the time. It turned out to be the same submarine as the Rostov-on-Don, which suffered "irreparable" damage in another Ukrainian air strike 10 months ago. Is this because the Russian army's repair ability is too extraordinary, or is there a deviation in the Ukrainian army's intelligence?
According to CNN on the 3rd, the Ukrainian military claimed that it had sunk a Russian Navy submarine in an airstrike on Sevastopol on the 2nd, "another major setback for Moscow on the Crimean Peninsula." The Ukrainian General Staff said in a statement that the submarine sunk was the "Rostov-on-Don" submarine, "it sank on the spot," "which once again proves that there is no safe place for the Russian fleet in the Ukrainian territorial waters of the Black Sea." But Ukraine did not provide further evidence. The report said that if the news is confirmed, it would be Ukraine's latest blow to the Russian Navy - Kiev claimed that the Russian Black Sea Fleet had lost one-third of its ships. But CNN was unable to independently verify the news that the Russian submarine was sunk, and the Russian Ministry of Defense did not comment on the alleged attack.
A large hole was blown into the hull of the Rostov-on-Don after it was attacked in September last year
According to reports, the "Rostov-on-Don" belongs to the "Kilo" class conventional submarine. It was commissioned in 2014, is 74 meters long and carries 52 crew members. With an underwater displacement of 3,100 tons, it is one of the four submarines in the Black Sea Fleet that can carry "Caliber" cruise missiles. In the early morning of September 13, 2023, the Ukrainian army used 10 cruise missiles and 3 unmanned boats to carry out a joint attack on the naval factory in Sevastopol. The Russian Ministry of Defense said that 7 of the missiles were intercepted and the unmanned boats were destroyed, but the attack caused damage to two ships being repaired in the dock. Ukraine claimed that it used Su-24 fighter-bombers to launch the "Storm Shadow" air-launched cruise missiles provided by the United Kingdom to "destroy" the submarine being repaired in the dock. Subsequently, the open source intelligence organization "Oryx" released photos of the "Rostov-on-Don" submarine after the attack, showing that there were obvious large holes in the pressure hull of the submarine and a fire had occurred. It may have been "burned." At that time, the British Ministry of Defense also assessed that it had suffered "catastrophic damage" and could not be repaired. Considering that the dock in Sevastopol had been destroyed in the air strike, the base was unable to repair the submarine independently. In addition, after the pressure hull was damaged, the underwater safety of the entire submarine would be greatly reduced, and the cost of repairing it might be no less than building a new submarine. Therefore, Ukraine and the West generally believed that the "Rostov-on-Don" would be abandoned.
However, at that time, the Russian Black Sea Fleet announced that the submarine was only slightly injured and would be put into service normally after repair. The Ukrainian side believed that the Russian army was "putting on a brave face". But 10 months later, the Ukrainian General Staff said that the "Rostov-on-Don" had been repaired and recently tested in the waters of the port of Sevastopol. The US "Power" website said that public satellite images showed that a strange floating device consisting of two barges and a covered facility had appeared in the port of Sevastopol in recent months. It may be a temporary device for repairing submarines, and the latest satellite photos show that it was destroyed in the past 48 hours. However, the report believes that it has only been 10 months since the submarine was severely damaged by the cruise missile. "It is questionable how likely it is to be repaired and have combat capabilities, but the Ukrainian military obviously believes that it is still a target worth attacking."
CNN military analyst Cedric Layton said that in any case, this Russian submarine equipped with "Caliber" missiles was the main target of the Ukrainian army's attack, because the Russian Black Sea Fleet had widely used "Caliber" cruise missiles to attack important infrastructure such as Ukrainian power plants. However, after being attacked by Ukrainian drones and suicide drone boats, most of the surviving surface ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet retreated to ports farther away from Ukraine and rarely went out to sea for combat. Only the submarine force was still launching cruise missiles and participating in air strikes on Ukraine. Therefore, Layton said, "Hitting this submarine is a big deal." But even Western observers believe that despite the repeated heavy losses of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the battle situation in the Black Sea direction is unlikely to affect the overall situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
