Chen Wenling: Six major structural changes are taking place in the world
2024-08-06
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The world is currently undergoing major changes at an accelerated pace. I believe that structural changes have taken place in six major areas.
First, there have been major changes in the world economic structure.The global South is rising as a whole. The GDP of the global South now accounts for more than 60% of the world's GDP. The GDP of the BRICS countries currently accounts for 29% of the world's total, and their population accounts for 46% of the world's total. Changes in the economic structure will lead to a series of changes, and many things in the world need to be redefined.
Second, there have been major changes in the world's wealth structure.In the colonial era and modern times, a large amount of wealth of some countries could be obtained through colonization and the hegemony of a certain currency. In the future, the relationship between the real economy and the virtual economy will undergo major adjustments. The practice of obtaining world wealth through a currency, war, or by putting domestic rules above international rules has been seriously challenged and may eventually be abandoned.
Third, the world’s population structure has undergone major changes.Many countries, including European countries, Japan, South Korea, and China, are entering an aging society, while India, Bangladesh, and African countries have relatively young population structures. Therefore, the labor force dividend is shifting from China, Japan, and South Korea, where the aging population is relatively high, to India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and African countries. Therefore, changes in the entire population structure will have a significant impact on the world economy, the world industrial chain, and the supply chain.
Fourth, there have been major changes in the world’s power structure.Unlike the previous pure industrial revolution, this time the scientific and technological revolution, industrial revolution and ideological revolution converged together. Therefore, the scientific and technological revolution requires ideological revolution. Without the outbreak of ideological revolution, the scientific and technological revolution is difficult to produce explosive development. For example, the confrontational competition and siege-style suppression of the scientific and technological development of some countries against other countries have actually brought significant negative impacts to the global scientific and technological revolution.
Fifth, there have been major changes in the world governance structure.The tide of anti-globalization is now surging, and the authority of global governance institutions, including the United Nations, has been seriously challenged. Some time ago, I saw someone put the UN Charter into a shredder. The authority of the United Nations has never been challenged as much as it is now. Protectionism, isolationism and small groupism are prevalent. In recent years, protectionist measures have increased nearly fivefold, reaching 3,000 in 2023.
Sixth, the world space structure has undergone major changes.We used to think about problems on Earth, but now we may have to think about the governance of outer space. Because outer space can accommodate 100,000 low-orbit satellites, and the United States has now applied for 50,000 to 60,000, accounting for about 60%. Will such outer space become a tool for hegemony for some countries? Or will it become a new space layout that benefits mankind? These issues have posed very severe challenges to us and have also led to very significant adjustments in geopolitical and geo-economic relations.
Looking to the future, I believe we need to conduct a cognitive revolution, re-understand the planet we live on, the international environment we live in, re-understand the relationship between major powers, re-understand the role of international organizations, maintain the trend of emerging globalization, and jointly face the challenges and risks facing human society. We must also move towards more cooperation, and we must de-value, de-universalize security, and de-politicize. Through these "de-" steps, we can once again form a trend of global cooperation and form a new type of globalization based on global order and global rules since World War II. I think cooperation is the only way out for mankind.
(The author is the chief economist of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges)
