The situation in the Middle East is tense, and the Pentagon's "pizza index" has exploded. What is it?
2024-08-06
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On August 4th local time, the United States warned that Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah will soon launch an attack on Israel, possibly within the next 24-48 hours, or as early as Monday.
A few days ago, a New York State congressman revealed that the "pizza index" near the Pentagon in the United States has skyrocketed, reflecting a significant increase in workload and overtime at the Pentagon and other government agencies, suggesting that something big may be happening.
What exactly is the "Pizza Index"?
The Pentagon's "pizza index" is off the charts
Last week, the deaths of important Hamas leaders and the second-in-command of Lebanon's Hezbollah have caused tensions in the Middle East to escalate rapidly. The United States has warned that Iran and Hezbollah will soon launch an attack on Israel, which could happen as early as the next 24-48 hours, or as early as Monday.
Some analysts are concerned that the upcoming Iranian attack may be more extensive and complex than the attack on Israel in April. The Middle East "powder keg" is about to explode, and it seems that something big is about to happen in the world. The Pentagon's "Pizza Meter" has exploded, which also proves this point.
Recently, New York State Representative Ben Geller shared several screenshots on X, which showed a pizza restaurant near the Pentagon with a significant increase in customers and a sharp drop in business at several nearby bars. This indirectly shows that the workload and overtime at the Pentagon have increased significantly, and suggests that something big may be about to happen.
Image source: Cailianshe
In a follow-up post, he wrote, "While this is a bit humorous, this is a real-world intelligence indicator that predicts major events with 100% accuracy."
It is worth mentioning that due to the extremely accurate predictions of the "Pizza Index" in the past, the post has received widespread attention and has been viewed more than 13.23 million times to date.
What is the Pizza Index?
The "Washington Pizza Index" was invented and reported by Frank Meeks, a Domino's Pizza owner in Washington, D.C., in the early 1990s. He operated about 60 Domino's Pizza stores in the Washington area at the time, and Domino's was also the largest pizza chain in the region. Meeks said that on August 1, 1990, the night before Iraq invaded Kuwait, 21 pizzas were delivered to the CIA. That night, U.S. military personnel met at the Pentagon to discuss the Middle East crisis. As satellites observed the advance of Saddam's most trusted Iraqi force, the Republican Guard, the U.S. intelligence agencies, the military, and the government apparently suspected that the invasion was imminent, so they held a meeting overnight to discuss countermeasures.
Meeks noticed that whenever there was an emergency or crisis, the staff in the US government buildings would work overtime day and night. The bigger the crisis, the longer the government staff stayed in the office, and the more pizza they would order to fill their stomachs. Meeks's findings were also confirmed in historical events such as the US invasion of Panama and the Gulf War, so he was called the "civilian pizza historian."
Pizza and Iran's attack on Israel may seem unrelated, but just like a butterfly flapping its wings can cause a storm on the other side of the world, two seemingly unrelated things may actually be inextricably linked.
In fact, the "Pizza Index" refers to the number of orders from pizza restaurants near major US government buildings (such as the Pentagon, the White House and the Department of Defense headquarters). When the index (i.e. the number of orders) surges abnormally, it means that something big may happen.
It is believed that when a potential major crisis occurs, there will be far more people working in these government buildings than usual, and their workload will increase significantly, so they will be too busy to go out for meals, or even work overtime until late at night and can only order pizza takeout to fill their stomachs quickly.
The term originated during the Cold War, and recent events in the Middle East have highlighted its influence again. At the time, Soviet intelligence monitored similar indicators, tracking the number of pizzas delivered by couriers to measure vigilance against potential global crises. Their intelligence source was called "Pizzint."
More accurate than satellite intelligence?
The last time the Pizza Index attracted widespread attention was in April this year. At that time, Iran launched drones into Israeli territory. Screenshots showed that pizza shops were unusually active when the drones were launched. It is reported that in that attack, Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles into Israel, and Israel, the United States and its allies jointly intercepted most of them.
At the time, a user named X posted a screenshot of Google Maps showing real-time activity at pizza restaurants after 6:00 p.m. local time, especially at Papa John's in Washington, D.C. At the same time, another user shared a screenshot showing a pizza restaurant near the Department of Defense that was unusually busy, similar to the former.
According to the user, the "Pizza Index" can assess the United States' involvement in global crises based on the activity levels of local pizza shops. Other well-known examples include the Gulf War in the 1990s.
From January 7 to 16, 1991, before the Gulf War's Operation Desert Storm, Meeks's delivered an average of 101 pizzas to the Pentagon after 10 p.m. each night. Between 10 p.m. on January 16 and 2 a.m. the next day, Meeks's delivered 55 pizzas to the White House alone. It is worth noting that January 17 was the day the bombing of Operation Desert Storm began.
So, to gauge international tensions, look to the late-night pizza deliveries to American war planners. "The news media doesn't always know when something big is going to happen because the reporters are asleep, but our delivery guy showed up at 2 a.m.," Frank Mix told the Los Angeles Times. A Domino's spokesman believes that this is "better than intelligence from spies and satellites."
During the impeachment of Clinton, a congressman's assistant was delivering pizza. Image source: Huanqiu.com
The 1990s was mainly the period of the administration of the 42nd President of the United States, Clinton. During his eight years in office, he experienced many political turmoil, which was also reflected in the growth of pizza orders. On December 19, 1998, after a day and a half of intense debate, the U.S. House of Representatives passed two articles of impeachment against Clinton by a simple majority: "perjury" and "obstruction of justice" in the scandal case related to him. Over the past two days, more than 400 members of the House of Representatives from the Republican and Democratic parties took turns to speak on the stage on the issue of whether Clinton should be impeached. The two sides exchanged sharp words.
On December 16, 1998, less than 20 hours before the U.S. House of Representatives convened to debate the impeachment of Clinton, the White House suddenly declared war on Iraq and launched Operation Desert Fox. Following Clinton's order, U.S. warships and bombers deployed in the Gulf region launched 200 to 300 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iraq. The focus of the United States and even the world immediately shifted from the vote on Clinton's impeachment to Saddam's survival.
This week was destined to be a busy week for the US government. With the impeachment hearings in Congress and the Pentagon's intensive deployment of war, the Washington Pizza Index also broke the record, so much so that Frank Meeks commented that "this is crazy". That week, a large number of White House and Capitol Hill staff, Pentagon staff and media reporters worked until the early morning every day, and they all chose to order pizza to fill their stomachs. Meeks said that although the highest record of Pentagon pizza orders was still set during the Gulf War, this time the White House and Congress broke the previous three-day pizza delivery record. On December 15, 16 and 17, 1998, the White House staff ate a total of $3,100 worth of pizza.
Comprehensive sources: Huanqiu.com, Cailianshe, Guancha.com, Kankan.com
