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Bitcoin crashed, what happened?

2024-08-05

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After cryptocurrencies suffered a heavy blow over the weekend, they continued to be sold off violently on Monday. Bitcoin fell to nearly $54,000, falling as much as 10% during the day, and Ethereum fell to nearly $2,300, falling more than 13% during the day.


Media analysis pointed out that this wave of selling seemed to be caused by a "time-triggered" algorithm program.The program triggered the sell order at the same time (10am EST every day, right after the US market opened) for the past 7 trading days.Notably, the algorithm was still running over the weekend, potentially leading to a wave of high-frequency trading (HFT)-driven selling and shorting, forcing leveraged long investors to throw in the towel.

Data shows that crypto "market maker" Jump Trading is liquidating hundreds of millions of dollars in positions, attempting to aggressively reprice cryptocurrencies by selling and shorting billions of dollars of various cryptocurrencies during the most illiquid market hours, while repeatedly eating up buy orders to ensure the worst execution price.

Since August 3, Jump Crypto, the cryptocurrency arm of Jump Trading, has flagged an inflow of about $300 million to its addresses, while the trading firm’s wallets have seen an outflow of about $80 million during the same period.The flows are mainly to cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase, Gate.io, and Binance, and the flow of funds is still continuing.

And inThe reason behind this liquidation panic is mainly driven by factors such as global stock market turmoil and geopolitical risks.The analysis points out:

1. Last Friday, the US stock market plunged, the USD/JPY exchange rate plummeted, and the market expected Japanese stocks to fall sharply after opening on Monday. Roughly estimated, the Topix Index may have another 6-8% decline based on the 10% decline in the past two days. Japanese stocks have fallen into a bear market in the past few days after the Bank of Japan's biggest policy mistake in recent times. This may force the Bank of Japan to resume easing and cut interest rates a few days after a slight interest rate hike, when the Japanese economy may fall into contraction again.
2. The market is worried that the conflict between Iran and Israel may escalate. According to CCTV News, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament said on the 4th that Iran will respond strongly to the incident, and Israel and the United States will pay the price for Haniyeh's death. On the same day, the Israeli Defense Minister said that Israel is ready to deal with the attack. Analysis points out that every time the conflict escalates, Bitcoin will plummet. It is expected that when the next "conflict" takes place, a similar plunge will occur again.