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This weekend, there were more discussions about the US stock market and the RMB. Overnight, everyone was asking if the US stock market was going to collapse. Recently, the US stock market has indeed been falling. Intel plummeted 30% in a single day, and Nvidia's US stock price fell to the level of A shares.

The reasons for the pessimistic view on the U.S. stock market are based on the following points: 1) The Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike has led to a narrowing of the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States, a reduction in carry trades, which is bearish for the U.S. dollar and bullish for the yen and the renminbi.

2) US non-farm data triggers the Sam's Rule. The core theory of the Sam's Rule is that when the three-month average of the unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points higher than the 12-month low, it usually means that the economy is in recession.

3) The expectation of the Fed's rate cut was originally good for the stock market, but the speculation lasted too long and the good news turned into bad news. According to historical data, in previous Fed rate cut cycles, the average return rate of the S&P 500 index in the 12 months after the first rate cut was 10%; when the US economy fell into recession, the average performance of the S&P 500 index was a decline of 15%.

4) Buffett sold Apple shares.As of June 30, Berkshire Hathaway A reduced its holdings of Apple shares in the second quarter from 789 million shares in the first quarter to about 400 million shares, a decrease of nearly 50%, and currently holds 2.6% of the shares. In fact, Buffett not only reduced his holdings in Apple, but also frantically reduced his long-held holdings in Bank of America.

In this regard, Dan Bin said that he is optimistic about Apple and will not sell his holdings.The proportion of companies that change the world is increasing. We believe that in the era of artificial intelligence, this will continue to be the case or even more prominent! We are willing to persevere, although Berkshire's reduction of Apple holdings also "reminds of risks"... It is not easy to succeed in any investment. You can only trust your own judgment, believe in what you believe in, and believe in the power of your own heart...

Some investors also said that Buffett is still so sharp and handsome at the age of 90. Good things must have good prices, even Apple. And according to Buffett's indicators, the US stock market is definitely a bubble, especially technology stocks. Buffett, who experienced the IT bubble in 2000, must still remember it clearly.

In fact, before Buffett reduced his holdings in Apple, well-known investors had already taken the lead: I was a little surprised that Buffett did not reduce his holdings in Apple, which is quite interesting. It seems that he reduced his holdings when the stock price was 180-190. At the current price, I thought he would continue to reduce his holdings.

After Buffett reduced his stake in Apple, Duan Yongping said: Once he decides to sell, there is only one reason why he will sell less, that is, the price has fallen. Apple has been so strong recently, so any amount he sells is reasonable.

At this time, the chief macroeconomic official of CICC was all over the news, and some people even thought it had a bit of metaphysical flavor: the transaction "rises in the east and falls in the west".

Han Jun, another chief analyst of transportation and coal at CICC Securities, said that if the US economy goes into recession and the US stock market collapses, the ones that may make us a lot of money in the future are sqqq (three times shorting Nasdaq) and tmf (three times long US bonds). Please remember these two codes.

Han Jun, formerly worked at the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center, has three years of experience in government planning and market consulting. He has been responsible for or participated in providing more than 20 decision-making consulting services to the Ministry of Transport, Shanghai Municipal Transportation Commission, port and shipping companies, etc.

He worked in Zhejiang Merchants for two years and joined CICC in 2019. He then became famous across the country for recommending China COSCO Shipping. Investors figuratively called him "sailor" and "captain", and some shareholders called Han Jun "Brother Da Jun".