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The commander of the U.S. Air Force in Europe made a rare admission at a recent event that building low-cost suicide drones and mass-producing them is an effective way to develop beyond-the-horizon strike capabilities. This statement overturned the U.S. military's long-standing "high-tech" equipment development approach. U.S. media analysis said that Iran has already taken a step ahead of the United States in building cheap drones, and used this to fan the flames, saying that the U.S. military should use this method to deal with China.

Iran develops suicide drone

The US "War Zone" website reported on July 31 that in the face of the growing threat of "Kamikaze" drones (suicide drones) and the continuous advancement of anti-drone technology, the US military has seen this phenomenon as an "opportunity." The highest-ranking officer of the US Air Force in Europe said that this weapon, commonly known as a "one-way attack drone," could be a very useful low-cost means of out-of-area strike, especially for weaker NATO members or other US allies and partners who may not be able to afford high-end weapon systems.

According to reports, James Hecker, General of the U.S. Air Force and commander of the U.S. Air Force in Europe, spoke about the dangers of suicide drones and the impact they could have on U.S. allies in an online speech hosted by the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, the official think tank of the U.S. Air Force and Space Force Association, on July 30. He said: "Unlike the Cold War, we are now facing precision munitions in the hands of the enemy and the scale of their numbers." He further explained: "About two and a half years ago, we were still talking about cruise missiles, which were very expensive, so a country could not afford to buy a lot of these weapons. But now we are seeing one-way attack drones that cost only $10,000 to $20,000 to manufacture, which are cheap and can be mass-produced."

The War Zone analyzed the Shahed-136 long-range drone developed by Iran as an example, saying that its actual unit price is estimated to be between $50,000 and $150,000. This drone and its predecessor, the Shahed-131 drone, have been widely used by Russia in the Ukrainian battlefield. Compared with traditional cruise missiles and other precision-guided munitions, the cost of this type of drone is relatively low at around $100,000, which allows its production to be multiplied.

"Witness-136" UAV

"And they (Kamikaze drones) are also very capable, they can use altitude changes to avoid detection equipment, and they also have a pretty good configuration to ensure they reach their destination," Hecker explained. He also said: "In the past two and a half years, this problem has become more complicated and has spilled over... You know, every country can afford this kind of thing, and we have to fight it."

Hecker did not elaborate on the combat capabilities of the Kamikaze drones he mentioned, nor did he explain how widely they are used. However, The War Zone believes that Russia has been working hard to improve the Witness-136 drones provided by Iran, and the Ukrainian battlefield has become a "battlefield incubator" for the rapid development of iterative suicide drones, especially FPV suicide drones with strong maneuverability but short range.

Hecker stressed that dealing with these new threats requires innovative approaches, such as the improvised acoustic sensor network used by Ukraine. This is a drone detection system that uses thousands of cell phones and microphones mounted on poles to alert anti-drone teams on the ground, who then use machine guns mounted on pickup trucks to counter the drones. "This is something we can't do," Hecker said. "We can't use Patriot missiles to deal with them, or $1 million Hammer precision weapons to deal with them."Guided bomb(Guided bombs supplied by France to Ukraine) to counter it.”

Ukrainian troops use twin machine guns to counter drones

Hecker even used the phrase "something that keeps me up at night" to describe his concerns about the cost of counter-drone operations. He said that this cost calculation is two-way, and the U.S. military can also make good use of drones to "put opponents on the wrong side of the cost curve."

Hecker went on to explain: “We saw from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that there are a lot of cheap systems that can achieve exquisite flight, and some NATO countries are happy to make these equipment... because they can't afford more advanced weapons.” He said: “From the perspective of high-low matching, now I can let 15 countries within NATO that can't afford advanced weapons and can't provide much help buy one-way attack drones. These drones can make other advanced weapons stronger, or even they can complete the task independently.”

The report said that more and more Western contractors have been able to provide low-cost one-way attack drones and cruise missile weapons with additional capabilities, partly to obtain contract opportunities to supply weapons to Ukraine. Although some NATO member states are also able to afford more advanced precision munitions, they have begun to mass-produce these drones themselves, such as Poland.

Western countries are increasingly interested in equipment such as Iran's Witness-136 drone, and there are already products available on the international market, with Israeli companies being particularly prominent. More importantly, the value proposition of purchasing a Kamikaze drone is not limited to countries with smaller defense budgets. The US military is also increasingly deploying various types of loitering missiles, such as the Switchblade 600, which was one of the first drone systems to receive special attention in the Pentagon's "Replication" project. The goal of this project is to deploy thousands of unmanned systems with autonomous capabilities by 2025.

"Switchblade 600" cruise missile rendering

In addition, the line between long-range drones like the Witness-136 and traditional cruise missiles has become increasingly blurred. For the US military, which is actively developing and deploying new low-cost beyond-visual-range munitions, the final weapon design may be somewhere between long-range drones and cruise missiles.

"The War Zone" quoted Melissa Dalton, deputy secretary of the U.S. Air Force, as saying in a recent speech: "I think that a way of thinking that is becoming more and more prevalent in the U.S. Department of Defense, especially the U.S. Air Force, is... large-scale and cost-effective." She said that the U.S. military has previously focused on building a set of independent and sophisticated platforms, focusing on quality rather than quantity, but when considering how to break through the competitive environment it faces, "quantity itself is also a kind of quality."

The War Zone believes that Dalton's remarks refer to potential high-end conflicts, such as "conflicts with China in the Pacific." Military exercises led by the U.S. military have repeatedly proved that relatively cheap, highly autonomous drone swarms may be the key factor in determining the success or failure of mainland China's military operations against Taiwan. The War Zone also specifically mentioned the U.S. military's strategic plan to turn the Taiwan Strait into a "drone hell," which was frequently hyped by the U.S. media.

It can only be said that the US side's wishful thinking in the Taiwan Strait is crackling. The status of drones, especially low-cost suicide drones, in modern warfare is certainly becoming more and more important, but the US side's recognition of this point can be said to be belated. Now everyone knows that drones have become a key weapon on the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine and in local conflicts in the Middle East, but the United States is still repeatedly considering whether to increase investment in this area. "War Zone" also admitted in the report that what Americans are worried about now is that with the existing industrial chain and industrial system in the United States, it is impossible to achieve mass production of low-cost drones in a short period of time, and the US military currently has no investment plan for long-range suicide drones. Faced with the so-called "growing drone threat", the response of the special assistant to the US Air Force Secretary was: "We don't have enough money to buy ammunition, that's it." To put it bluntly, the idea of ​​developing long-range suicide drones proposed by the top US military officials is ultimately to ask Congress for money.

On the other hand, mainland China not only has an absolute advantage in drone production capacity, but also has rich experience in the systematic equipment and combat application of drones. At the China Air Show in recent years, we can also see the spectacular scene of domestic military drones "blooming in bloom". Whether in terms of equipment quantity or quality, China's advantage in the field of military drones is self-evident. The US military's talk about "drone hell" to the People's Liberation Army can be described as "playing with a big axe in front of Lu Ban's door". More importantly, the will, determination and ability of mainland China to promote unification cannot be shaken by the "drone hell" imagined by the US side.

Regarding the US military's plan to turn the Taiwan Strait into a "hell without people", Wu Qian, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, also responded at a regular press conference: Those who clamor to turn other people's homes into hell should first prepare to go to hell themselves. In order to "use Taiwan to control China", some people in the United States are willing to turn the Taiwan Strait into a "hell on earth", which is extremely crazy. This also once again shows that the "Taiwan independence" elements who want to "rely on the United States to seek independence" will ultimately not be able to escape the fate of being "chess pieces" becoming "abandoned pieces".