news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

[Text/Cotton Wool, columnist of Observer.com]

On July 30, the Russian naval fleet left the port of Havana after concluding a four-day visit.

This is the second visit of the Russian Navy to Cuba in more than a month. The Russian fleet participating in the visit includes the "Smolny" training ship, the "Yelnya" supply ship and the "Dreadnought" frigate. Just over a month ago, the 22350-type frigate Gorshkov, the P-5757-type ocean rescue tugboat Nikolay Chiker, the 23130-type medium-sized offshore supply ship Academician Pashin and the K-561 Kazan multipurpose nuclear submarine could be seen at the dock of the Havana port.

The appearance of Russian nuclear submarines has made the United States highly nervous. In order to detect the whereabouts of the Russian fleet, the US Boeing P-8A Poseidon has been circling around the Havana Harbor in Cuba since early morning, and has also sent underwaterSonarBuoys filled the suspicious waters. But after all the trouble, the Americans used up a large amount of hydroacoustic buoys but got nothing. This made Alexi Yegorov, the military host of Red Star TV, couldn't help but sneer: If you know where it is, one or two buoys are enough, but in the suspicious waters, the US military dropped 1,500 buoys.

The Russian fleet's frequent visits to Cuba, at a time when relations between the United States, the West and Russia have hit rock bottom again, have made the outside world think of the famous "Cuban Missile Crisis."

During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the Soviet Army planned to deploy five ballistic missile regiments in Cuba. In order to provide support for the missile forces, the Soviet Army originally planned to deploy a large number of air defense and ground forces, including two short-range missile regiments (equipped with short-range cruise missiles equipped with nuclear warheads), two air defense divisions (equipped withAnti-aircraft missiles) and other troops, with a total strength of 50,874 people.

In comparison, the Russian military's visit to Cuba this time is very different from the Soviet military's plan during the Cuban Crisis in 1962. The biggest difference is that the Soviet B-59 nuclear submarine carried a large number of missiles when it cruised in the waters near Cuba in 1962.nuclear weapon, almost triggering a nuclear war. Therefore, Cuba took the initiative to say at the first time that the multi-purpose nuclear submarine Kazan did not carry nuclear weapons when it arrived in Cuba. It can also be seen that the Russian army is not considering a direct confrontation with the United States at present. It is more of a warning. After all, Russia still does not want the United States and NATO to take the initiative to directly involve in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Although the United States said that the Russian warships' visit to Cuba poses no threat to itself, it can be seen from the deployment of 8 warships by the US military nearby that they have made sufficient preparations, and tracking and supervision are inevitable. According to the US Southern Command, the United States sent the Los Angeles-class Helena nuclear submarine to Cuba because there are Russian warships there. The Associated Press also added that the US Navy submarine arrived to "show strength" in response to the visit of the Russian fleet.

However, the author believes that the volume and scale of military equipment currently facing off between the United States and Russia are not sufficient to initiate a large-scale conflict, and the two nuclear powers have no desire to engage in a firefight for the time being.

The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the Russian military's global military activities

After the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, Russia deployed a large amount of military forces to the Ukrainian battlefield, and the outside world once thought that Russia's global military operations would be affected.

Judging from the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, Russia did suffer heavy losses in this war. During the Russian-Ukrainian war, Ukraine used missiles, suicide drones, and suicide unmanned boats to attack Russia's "Black Sea Fleet" headquarters and flagships, frigates, submarines and many other targets, and achieved many results. At the end of April 2022, two months after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Ukraine sank the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the Moscow, with two Neptune missiles.

Last year, the Rostov-on-Don was severely damaged in the NATO missile attack on Sevastopol and has been towed away and may be dismantled. Previously, Ukraine also claimed that it had attacked the Russian Black Sea Fleet's Type 775 Kaiser Kunikov with a suicide drone boat.

According to Ukrainian sources, Ukraine has destroyed more than 20 Russian ships since the conflict began in February 2022. At the same time, there are reports of Russian fighter jets being shot down from time to time. It is reported that the Russian army has lost 10 Su-34 fighter-bombers, 2 Su-35 fighters, and even the A-50 early warning aircraft, one of Russia's most important equipment, has suffered losses.

We cannot ignore that not only has the Russian military's ability to build military equipment declined significantly compared to the Soviet era, but the efficiency of construction has also declined significantly. This makes it impossible for Russia to get brand-new missile cruisers, missile destroyers, and nuclear-powered submarines off the slipway in a short period of time. At the same time, the Russian military's fifth-generation fighters have just begun mass production, not to mention that the Russian Su-35 fighter is relatively backward in avionics systems.

But Putin also recognizes the relevant problems, and the unprecedented anti-corruption campaign in the military is a signal. At a recent shipbuilding conference, he also mentioned that the Russian Navy will receive more than 40 new ships in 2024, and has repeatedly stated that the Russian military will further modernize its equipment. In terms of the navy, Russia's only aircraft carrier, the Kuznetsov, is undergoing repairs and modernization at the 35th Ship Repair Plant in Murmansk, while in terms of the Russian Aerospace Force, the Russian military's modernized weapons and equipment account for more than 70%, and a number of advanced early warning, command and communication systems will be deployed in the next 10 years. The upgrading of weapons and equipment will keep the construction of the Aerospace Force on the "fast track".

Recently, the Russian military has also placed an order for 76 Su-57 fighter jets.fighterIt will have all the expected design features, such as stealth, ability to launch electronic warfare, and be equipped with AESE active phased array radar.

Although Russia's military capabilities cannot compete head-on with the United States and NATO, it still has a certain degree of security thanks to its nuclear arsenal. At present, with its strong military production capacity, the Russian army is also able to make up for the losses on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, thus creating sufficient conditions for its global military operations.

Russia's global military operations and strategic objectives

In early July, retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel and analyst Daniel Davis published an article in the US magazine National Interest, saying that Ukraine has no chance of defeating Russia on the battlefield, and that obtaining any resources will be useless. This also explains to some extent where Russia's confidence in conducting global military operations comes from.

At present, the Russian military's global military activities, apart from the Russia-Ukraine war, are mainly patrols and exercises of the navy and air force. They also included last week's joint air strategic cruise with the Chinese Air Force in the relevant airspace of the Bering Sea, and joint patrols with the Chinese Navy warship detachment in the Philippine Sea.

It is reported that the patrol was participated by the Pacific Fleet's "Perfect" frigate and a warship detachment of the People's Liberation Army Navy, including the "Yinchuan" destroyer, the "Hengshui" frigate and the "Weishanhu" supply transport ship. The ships of the two countries conducted training on the use of standard missile and artillery weapon systems to strike targets at sea. At the same time, the Pacific Fleet, composed of the missile cruiser Varyag and the frigate Shaposhnikov, completed the operation of passing through the Suez Canal and sailed from the Mediterranean into the Red Sea.

In my opinion, the most important military activity of the Russian army in recent times is not to create a second missile crisis in Cuba, but to expand in Africa.

At the end of May, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yevkurov arrived in Benghazi with a delegation to visit eastern Libya, the fifth visit to this place since last August. This visit further consolidated the rumors that Moscow is forming an African Corps in Libya to replace the Wagner force. Earlier, US State Department spokesman Miller publicly claimed that there are 1,800 fighters related to Russia in Libya.

Russia is preparing for operations not only in Libya, but also in Burkina Faso, Mali, the Central African Republic, and Niger.

The honorary consul of Russia in Niger said that Russia is interested in deploying a full-fledged armed force in the country. Due to the increasing threat of terrorist organizations, Niger faces security challenges, and Russia is doing everything it can to reduce the number of terrorist attacks. According to the agreement reached between the United States and the Niger authorities, the US military will leave the country by September 15, 2024, but now Russian "Africa Corps" soldiers have begun to occupy the 101st Air Force Base after the US military withdraws.

Maybe this is the first time many people have heard of Russia's "Africa Corps". According to the British Defense Intelligence Agency, Russia's "Africa Corps" was formed on the basis of the "Wagner" mercenaries, and is experienced and powerful.

After the Wagner mutiny and the plane crash of Wagner senior officials such as Prigozhin and Utkin, Russia began to reintegrate the Wagner mercenaries in Africa, and on this basis established the "Africa Corps" in December 2023. The Corps is headquartered in eastern Libya and has close ties with Marshal Haftar. The establishment of the "Africa Corps" means that the Russian government will directly control the Wagner forces in Africa, whose assets and influence in Africa have been completely taken over by the Russian government.

The Russian government established the "Africa Corps" based on the "Wagner" mercenaries to operate in Africa, which not only put a tight rein on Wagner, but also obviously served the interests of Russia and other relevant parties. The actions of the "Africa Corps" also greatly expanded the influence of the Russian government in Africa.

In 2024, military coups took place in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, which easily drove out the French and American military forces, turned to Russia, and sought security cooperation with the "African Legion". This also led to the further expansion of Russia's sphere of influence in Africa.

Of course, Russia's expansion is not all smooth sailing. After the Russian "African Corps" and the Malian government forces cooperated to drive the terrorist organization "Coordination of the Azawad Movement" out of the city of Boulon, the Russian "African Corps" and the Malian government forces were ambushed by Tuareg rebels in the suburbs of Tinzawatin. It is reported that the ambush resulted in the killing of 36 "African Corps" soldiers, including Wagner's important personnel, and several Malian armed forces soldiers were captured by the militants.

In general, the Russian military's strategy is developing in the direction of a deeper counterattack against European and American strategies. According to Western media reports, since the terrorist attack on the Nord Stream pipeline caused huge losses to Russia, the Russian military has been interested in cutting off submarine cables, paralyzing the Internet, and thus destroying the Five Eyes intelligence system that relies heavily on Internet surveillance.

Russia's military actions around the world are showing that it will not easily succumb to Western pressure. They are also trying to gain more footholds, focusing on Asia and Africa to compete with the United States for more influence. Such actions are ultimately to safeguard Russia's own interests, including the security of Russia's transoceanic routes, the security of Syria's overseas naval bases, and to promote the global anti-terrorism war, especially in Syria, Mali and other countries.

Russia has been at war with Ukraine for more than two years. Contrary to Western speculation that the domestic situation in Russia may be unstable, support for Putin in Russia has become increasingly evident. And Putin is restoring the military tension of the Russian army.

In any case, the long-term military offensive launched by the Russian army against the Ukrainian army this year has demonstrated Russia's military strength. In contrast, the Ukrainian army has not launched an effective counterattack for a long time. While the Russian army is fighting the Russian-Ukrainian war, it also has sufficient fleet and aerospace forces to deal with emergencies. Except for not being allowed to participate in the Olympics, Russia has not been marginalized in the world. This situation is also due to Russia's strong military strength, which has avoided the recurrence of its dismemberment by the West.

This article is an exclusive article of Guancha.com. The content of the article is purely the author's personal opinion and does not represent the platform's opinion. It cannot be reproduced without authorization, otherwise legal liability will be pursued. Follow Guancha.com WeChat guanchacn to read interesting articles every day.