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Tomorrow, the "enhanced" Shanghai Composite Index is coming! It may open around 3200 points

2024-07-28

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Reporter of China Business Network: Xiao Ruidong Editor of China Business Network: Zhao Yun

In the past trading week (July 22 to July 26), A-shares experienced a relatively obvious correction, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,900 points. Fortunately, it has gradually stabilized in the second half of the week and sentiment is also warming up.

A more positive signal on the market is that the dividend assets, which had previously been the most closely held and core, also began to make up for their losses on Friday, which to a certain extent will be conducive to the rebound of other oversold sectors.

Speaking of dividends, starting next week, an "enhanced version" of the Shanghai Composite Index that places greater emphasis on dividends will announce real-time quotes during trading. What impact will it have on the market during this cross-month period?

1. Outlook for next week’s major events

Monday, July 29

Real-time quotes for the Shanghai Composite Total Return Index are released

According to the arrangement made two weeks ago, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co., Ltd. decided to officially release the Shanghai Composite Total Return Index from Monday.Real-time Quotes, and adjust the index code and abbreviation to“000888”and“SSE Returns”

The index has actually been around for a long time, with July 21, 2020 as the base date and 3320.89 points as the base point. But this does not mean that when the market opens on Monday, the "Shanghai Stock Exchange Return" will show more than 3,300 points.

In fact, if you open the market software and search for 000888, you will see that the index has had a corresponding K-line every trading day since July 22, 2020, and the trend has also been ups and downs, reaching a high of 3808 points and a low of 2863 points.

As of Friday (July 26), its closing point was 3199.76, with a weekly decline of 2.94%, slightly better than the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index this week (-3.07%). This also means thatOn Monday morning, the index should open around 3,200 points.

By definition, the "SSE Return" is the total return index of the "SSE Index".

As a "price index", the Shanghai Composite Index only considers the rise and fall of stock prices when calculating the rate of return, reflecting the overall stock price performance of listed companies in Shanghai.

We know that some listed companies will pay dividends. If the cash dividends are reinvested into the original portfolio, a more comprehensive "total return" can be obtained.In addition to reflecting stock price performance, the total return index also includes the income generated by reinvesting stock dividends in its calculation.

Some analysts said that publishing real-time market information will, on the one hand, allow investors to clearly understand the impact of dividend income, and on the other hand, continue to encourage listed companies to increase their dividends.

In the past, many A-share investors did not attach importance to dividends, believing that they were insignificant compared to the gains brought by price increases.

But in fact, calculations show that if we compare the past ten yearsCSI 300 Total Return Index and CSI 300 Price IndexThe total return index that takes dividends into account does perform better than the price index that only calculates the stock price increase.

In general, the real-time quotes released this time areIt is equivalent to providing investors with a new perspective, which is conducive to a more realistic perception of the market.

Wednesday, July 31

July PMI data will be released

Previous data showed that in June, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.5%, the same as the previous month, and the manufacturing industry's business climate was basically stable.

Thursday, August 1

(1) August 1st Army Day

A-shares have always been known as the "military industry month" in August. According to historical data, from 2012 to 2023, the probability of the CSI military industry index rising in August is indeed greater, but it has fallen slightly in the past two years.

(2) The “Guidelines for the Operation of Private Securities Investment Funds” was officially implemented

The document is called the "Action Guide" for private equity funds by the industry. Among them, standardizing the disclosure of private equity net worth and the display of private equity product performance net worth have become one of the focuses of widespread concern in the industry.

(3) Increased duty-free allowance for mainland visitors shopping in Hong Kong and Macau is fully implemented

The Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs and the State Administration of Taxation previously issued an announcement that the duty-free limit for luggage items for resident travelers aged 18 or above entering the country from Hong Kong and Macao will be increased from 5,000 yuan to 12,000 yuan. At the same time, the policy of purchasing an additional 3,000 yuan of duty-free goods at the port of entry duty-free shops will be retained, with a total limit of 15,000 yuan.

The policy will apply to six land ports from July 1 and will be implemented at all ports (except the Hengqin "first-line" port) on August 1.

(4) The United States will begin to impose additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and other products

Earlier, on May 22 local time, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) issued an announcement on the imposition of 301 tariffs on China, stating that some measures to impose substantial tariffs on a series of Chinese imported goods such as electric vehicles and their batteries, computer chips and medical products will take effect on August 1.

In terms of the market, Wind data shows that next week, a total of 45 A-share listed companies will gradually release restricted shares, with a total of 1.853 billion shares released. Based on the closing price on July 26, the total market value of the release is 28.591 billion yuan. In terms of the market value of the release, the top three are:Runfeng Shares(7.262 billion yuan),Blue Sky Gas(5.386 billion yuan),Uni-T(1.759 billion yuan). In terms of the number of shares released from lock-up, the top three are: Blue Sky Gas (400 million shares), Runfeng Shares (189 million shares),Visible(117 million shares).

Next week, the People's Bank of China will have open marketNearly 1 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases matured (984.75 billion yuan).Among them, 58.2 billion yuan, 267.3 billion yuan, 66.1 billion yuan, 235.1 billion yuan and 358.05 billion yuan will mature from Monday to Friday respectively.

II. Review of recent news

Paris Olympics Opening

On July 27, Beijing time, the opening ceremony of the 33rd Summer Olympic Games was held in Paris, France. This is the first time that Paris has hosted the Summer Olympics again after 1900 and 1924, and it is also the third time in French history that it has hosted the Summer Olympics.

According to media statistics, A-share companies have participated in the "gold-winning" activities in the fields of facilities and equipment, supporting equipment, sports marketing, cultural derivatives, etc. related to the Paris Olympics, includingCIMCShuhua SportsAbsenUnilumin Technology, Yuanlong Yatu and many other listed companies.

Data of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first half of the year released

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows:

From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 3,511.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.1 percentage point from January to May.

From January to June, industrial enterprises above designated size realized operating revenue of 64.86 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; operating costs amounted to 55.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9%; the operating profit margin was 5.41%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year.

The National Bureau of Statistics said that overall, the performance of industrial enterprises above designated size recovered steadily in the first half of the year. At the same time, it should be noted that insufficient domestic effective demand has constrained the continued improvement of corporate performance, and the severe and complex international environment has increased the operating pressure of enterprises. The foundation for the recovery of industrial enterprise performance still needs to be consolidated. In the next stage, we must resolutely implement the spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee.Actively expand domestic demand, smooth the circulation of the national economy, develop new quality productivity according to local conditions,Create new development momentum and new advantages, and continuously promote high-quality development of the industrial economy.

US tech stocks plummeted, and generative AI businesses are having trouble making money

The “Big Seven” all fell this week, with their total market value shrinking by about $2 trillion since July 10. In fact, before this round of selling, analysis of the AI ​​“bubble theory” had heated up in the market, and many investment banks made bearish comments, questioning whether large-scale investment in the AI ​​field can bring corresponding returns in the future.

On Wednesday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index plunged more than 3.6%, its biggest one-day drop since the end of 2022.

College students filming vlogs during study trips sparked controversy, CITIC Securities issued a statement

3. Review of this week's market

Index performance: pullback across the board

Leading gainers and losers

Number of stocks that rise or fall, number of stocks with price limits, market volume

This week, the total number of stocks that rose: the number of stocks that fell → 1870: 3377

Weekly gain and loss list of stocks

Northbound funds: reduced holdings by more than 11 billion yuan in a single week, increased holdings in home appliance stocks

Data showed that northbound funds sold a net of 349 million yuan on Friday. This week, northbound funds had an overall net outflow of 11.417 billion yuan.

On Friday (July 26), 13 A-shares had net northbound purchases of more than 100 million yuan. Among them, Gree Electric Appliances topped the list with a net purchase of 520 million yuan. Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, both in the home appliance field, increased their holdings by 442 million yuan and 189 million yuan, respectively. Deye Holdings, Goldwind Technology, and Sungrow Power Supply, which are in the power equipment field, had net purchases of 133 million yuan, 129 million yuan, and 124 million yuan, respectively.

Sell ​​side,Kweichow MoutaiNet sales of 530 million yuan, North China Huachuang, JAC Motors,CATL, Xinyisheng, Wanhua Chemical, and Ping An of China all had net sales exceeding 200 million yuan.

Looking at the weekly performance, Zijin Mining's net purchase amount was 1.181 billion yuan, while Haier Smart Home, Goertek, and Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. all increased their holdings by more than 400 million yuan.

On the selling side, Kweichow Moutai's net selling amount was 2.08 billion yuan, CATL's reduction in holdings was 1.539 billion yuan, and the net selling amounts of Zhongji Xuchuan, Wuliangye, BOE Technology, Yili Group, ZTE Corporation, and Huichuan Technology all exceeded 600 million yuan.

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