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A single week of sharp decline, the end of the Mag7 bull market? Next, a big week is coming

2024-07-27

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Over the past nine months, technology giant Mag 7 has been seen as the key engine of growth in the U.S. stock market. However, since July, this momentum has quickly stalled.

After this week's plunge, four of the Mag 7 stocks have fallen more than 10% from their recent highs.NvidiaandTeslaMeta and Google parent company Alphabet fell 14% and 12% respectively.appleIt performed relatively well, but it also fell 7%.MicrosoftandAmazonThe share prices of both companies fell by about 9%.

According to statistics,Since its peak on July 10, the Mag 7 has lost a staggering $2 trillion in market value.

This round of decline not only made investors uneasy, but also made the market full of doubts about the future of technology stocks.

AI's monetization capabilities have caused market doubts, and funds have begun to flow into value stocks and small-cap stocks

Market analysts pointed out that despite Mag 7's huge investment in the field of AI, the market has begun to doubt its ability to monetize.

According to the financial report released on Tuesday, Google's parent company Alphabet's second-quarter performance remained solid overall, but Wall Street was concerned about the profitability momentum of AI, with a cumulative decline of more than 7% this week.

also,Given that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are almost certain and election and geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, investors have begun to shift funds to more value-oriented sectors, a phenomenon described by the media as "a stock market rotation of unprecedented scale in history."

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 2.3% and 3.6%, respectively, on Wednesday, their worst trading days since 2022. Although they subsequently recovered, they were down 0.8% and 2.1%, respectively, for the week.

In contrast, the Russell 2000 index, which represents small-cap stocks, performed exceptionally strongly, outperforming the S&P 500 in a week, setting a record not seen since at least the 1980s.

With major events arriving one after another, will there be a bloodbath in the technology sector next week?

In the following week, the market will usher in a series of major events, includingInterest rate decisions of the three major central banks of the United States, Japan and the United KingdomUS July non-farm payrollsMacroeconomic data such as PMI, European second quarter GDP and July CPI will be released.

at the same time,40% of S&P companies are expected to report earnings, including Microsoft and Apple in Mag 7, which will undoubtedly set off a new round of bloody storm in the market.

Ted Mortonson, managing director of Bedell, told the media:For the tech giants that report second-quarter earnings next week to quell the rotation, “they have to beat expectations on every line.”

Despite short-term market adjustments, in the long run, technology giants with "fortress balance sheets" still have strong profitability and market dominance.

Mag 7's free cash flow was expected to exceed $300 billion last year, according to a report by S&P Market Intelligence.

And that financial might isn’t expected to take a hit anytime soon: According to LSEG Datasteam data cited in the BlackRock report, the market consensus is for second-quarter earnings for the tech giants to grow 18% year-over-year, compared with just 2% for the rest of the S&P 500.

Analysts believe that in the long run,As investors begin to focus on 2026 earnings estimates, valuations for tech stocks will become more reasonable, attracting investors back.

“We believe (tech stocks) are now at a juncture where earnings growth will outpace share price performance, which will help drive valuations to more favorable levels,” said Angelo Zino, senior technical analyst at Cfra Research.

Many institutional investors have long seen this.

according toGoldman SachsAccording to a report from , Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia were the three AI stocks that hedge funds sold the most in the first quarter, followed by Amazon. Despite this, Mag 7 (except Tesla) remains their most popular long-term position.

Zino said the earnings trajectory of technology stocks remains significantly higher than the broader market.Investors will eventually return to tech stocksBut at the same time, investors should also remember that the stock market does not go up in a straight line, and fluctuations and adjustments are part of the market.