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Vietnam welcomed the visit of US warships and conducted military exercises with the Philippines. What is its plan?

2024-07-26

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After the South China Sea conflict between China and the Philippines, Vietnam did something very unkind. The country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently submitted the so-called "Continental Shelf Delimitation Case in the South China Sea" to the United Nations, attempting to take advantage of China on the South China Sea issue. However, Vietnam's move was severely refuted by China, and the chance of the conspiracy succeeding is almost zero. Despite this, Vietnam has been making small moves recently. According to Huanqiu.com, Vietnam and the Philippines are currently in contact, hoping to hold the first joint coast guard exercise in the South China Sea next month.

The Philippines and Vietnam's Coast Guard jointly conduct exercises, the target is China

It is worth mentioning that Vietnam did not comment on this, but the Philippine media quickly took the blame and claimed that the move by the Philippines and Vietnam was to respond to China's so-called "increasingly aggressive actions" in the South China Sea. Of course, whether Vietnam admits it or not, the joint exercise they are about to hold with the Philippine Coast Guard is by no means a normal exchange activity, but rather a sign of a group to confront China in the South China Sea. Obviously, the United States' intervention in the South China Sea situation and the Philippines' charge on the front line have led to increasingly tense situations in the South China Sea. For Vietnam, this is undoubtedly an "opportunity" to take advantage of the situation.

Vietnam's recent moves on the South China Sea issue are obviously related to the instigation of the United States, because just before Vietnam and the Philippines hooked up, two US Navy warships visited Vietnam's Cam Ranh Bay, intending to strengthen military cooperation with Vietnam. Obviously, the US warships' visit to Vietnam at this sensitive moment is definitely an attempt to draw Vietnam into the game and use it as a strategic pawn to provoke China using the South China Sea issue like the Philippines. Therefore, Vietnam submitted a maritime bill to the United Nations just after the US warships left Vietnam, and the Philippines also sought to hold joint exercises with Vietnam at this sensitive moment. These events are by no means some kind of accidental coincidence.

US warships visit Vietnam to win over Vietnam to stir up trouble in the South China Sea

Vietnam is not only the country that illegally occupies the most Chinese Nansha islands and reefs among ASEAN countries, but also has had land and sea conflicts with China. These historical differences and grievances have undoubtedly created a rare opportunity for the United States to win over Vietnam. It can be seen that the Vietnamese government needs to be careful now, because they have been targeted by the United States. The United States will continue to fire sugar-coated bullets, and with the instigation of Japan and the Philippines, if Hanoi is not careful, it will be dragged into the water like the Philippines and become a pawn of the United States' anti-China.

Of course, it would be a bit alarmist to conclude that Sino-Vietnamese relations will change because Vietnam and the Philippines are completely different. Vietnam's strategic partnership with the United States is far less close than the alliance between the Philippines and the United States. At the same time, due to historical grievances and huge differences in political ideology between the United States and Vietnam, Vietnam will not be able to get too close to the United States like the Philippines. After all, the United States has long been notorious for carrying out color revolutions in countries with different values. Vietnam has always kept a considerable distance from the United States, fearing that the country will be destroyed if it is not careful.

China and Vietnam have close economic and trade relations, and Vietnam cannot afford to fall out with China.

In addition, although Vietnam and China have many differences and contradictions, its leaders understand China and believe that China will not carry out a color revolution in the country like the United States and Western countries. More importantly, Vietnam cannot do without the supply of raw materials, technical equipment and electricity from China in developing its manufacturing industry. In other words, if the relationship between China and Vietnam changes, leading to the decoupling of the two countries in the economic and trade fields, this may cause Vietnam's manufacturing industry to suffer a heavy blow. In this case, even if the United States and the Philippines give Vietnam more benefits, the other party will not dare to easily turn against China over the South China Sea issue. The reason is simple: they cannot afford such serious consequences.

Moreover, Vietnam is currently vigorously developing infrastructure, especially railway construction, and is preparing to build itself into a "bridge" connecting China and other ASEAN countries. Vietnam's launch of these infrastructure projects is inseparable from China's support in terms of funds, technology and engineering construction. This is enough to show that Sino-Vietnamese relations will not change because of the South China Sea issue. On the contrary, as the two countries continue to strengthen cooperation in various aspects, bilateral relations will only get better in the future, not worse.

In recent years, security cooperation between China and Vietnam has been heating up.

Therefore, Vietnam's recent flirtations with the United States and the Philippines do not mean that the country will go along with them. After all, the cooperation between China and Vietnam in the security field has been in full swing recently, such as joint anti-terrorism exercises on land and joint patrols at sea, which are becoming a mechanism. Therefore, some of Vietnam's recent actions do not mean that the country has the courage to follow the United States in opposing China. On the contrary, the country is just trying to take a balancing route between the two major powers of China and the United States to ensure the maximization of diplomatic interests. If the United States and the Philippines expect to use this to pull Vietnam into the anti-China camp, they are dreaming.