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Source: Global Times

Taiwan's financial department recently predicted that artificial intelligence applications will drive Taiwan's continued economic growth in the second half of this year. Considering that Taiwan's leader Lai Ching-te had previously publicly declared that he wanted to build Taiwan into a so-called "artificial intelligence island," it seems that the DPP authorities have high expectations for the development of artificial intelligence. However, is the development of Taiwan's artificial intelligence industry really so rapid?

The rise of Taiwan's chip industry originated in the 1980s when the United States was suppressing Japan's semiconductor industry with all its might. Taiwan took the opportunity to enter the chip manufacturing industry in a big way, quickly seized part of the share of Japanese semiconductor companies in the global industrial chain, and in the subsequent explosion of the information technology industry, cultivated a number of excellent companies such as TSMC, and became a major player in the global chip industry. This great situation should have become a high-quality resource for the continuous soaring of the island's economy and people's livelihood, but unfortunately, under the malicious manipulation of the Democratic Progressive Party, the island's chip industry has gradually become a political tool to confront the mainland, and is even called the "Island Guardian". This absurd act of actively transforming its own key assets into a weapon of confrontation is like putting a sharp knife on its own neck to threaten others not to hurt itself. It not only attracts the attention of the international community, but also makes the global industry deeply uneasy.

Around 2020, the US government promoted the "repatriation of the chip industry" and forced the island's chip industry to relocate. TSMC had to invest $65 billion to build a factory in the United States, breaking its bottom line of "advanced processes will not leave the island" that it has adhered to for decades. By April 2024, when TSMC announced the construction of its third advanced process plant in the United States, the US's intention to hollow out TSMC was well known to everyone. At the same time, Japan did not miss the great opportunity to get a piece of the pie. The first phase of TSMC's chip manufacturing plant in Japan was completed in February 2024, and the second phase is expected to be completed in 2027. With the large-scale outflow of funds, personnel and technology, the day when Taiwan's chip industry is hollowed out by the United States and Japan may not be far away. So, after handing over Taiwan's chip industry to others, why did Lai Qingde and others insist on the so-called "artificial intelligence island"?

First of all, it is to fool the people on the island. Lai Qingde undoubtedly wants to take advantage of Huang Renxun and Nvidia's goodwill to the island to establish a positive image of "understanding the economy and striving for the economy" and improve the people on the island's view that the green camp is not good at developing the economy. But in fact, the artificial intelligence industry chain is very long and the subdivisions are complicated. Chip manufacturing is just one of them. Promoting the comprehensive revitalization of the artificial intelligence industry requires a complete industrial foundation. Judging from the industrial structure of the island, there is no condition at all. It can only be integrated into the global industrial chain as a link, and this requires a peaceful and friendly external development environment. Furthermore, the artificial intelligence industry is highly dependent on application scenarios and market size, while the market size and application scenarios in Taiwan are extremely limited. The only correct answer is to give full play to the spatial advantages and scenario advantages of the mainland and take the path of "specialization, precision and specialization". Therefore, whether in terms of regional economic structure or development environment, it is almost impossible for Taiwan to become an "artificial intelligence island" at present.

Historically, the key to the smooth development of Taiwanese enterprises is that they stay away from political manipulation, focus on the global industrial division of labor, follow the development trend of the technology industry, and strive to forge their own unique competitiveness. Only when Taiwanese politicians stop political manipulation of the industry and return to the right path of cross-strait friendship and common development can they hope to develop Taiwan into an "artificial intelligence island". Otherwise, this can only be a pie in the sky for the people on the island.

If the matter stops there, it is nothing more than a cheap rhetoric by politicians on the island to deceive themselves and others: I put forward a development vision, if it succeeds, it is my credit, if it fails, it is the mainland's sabotage. But the real danger of the "artificial intelligence island" concept is that it may become a strategic cover for the US military to create an "unmanned hell" in Taiwan.

In June 2024, Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, publicly claimed that the US military had developed a plan to use drones, unmanned vehicles, unmanned ships and other equipment to turn Taiwan into an "unmanned hell" to obstruct China's reunification. In addition, in 2023, former White House National Security Advisor O'Brien publicly stated that if necessary, "the United States will destroy Taiwan's high-precision semiconductor facilities." The people on the island are extremely panicked and angry about the future scenario of Taiwan being turned into "scorched earth" and "hell" by the US military. Lai Qingde's emphasis on the concept of "artificial intelligence island" at this time is very likely to be calling a deer a horse and using civilians to cover up the military, in order to justify the large-scale deployment of various intelligent weapons and equipment by the United States in Taiwan.

As we all know, the weaponization of artificial intelligence is a sensitive issue in the international community. The U.S. military is also seriously constrained by domestic public opinion in this regard. On the one hand, the U.S. military has hedged against opposition by promoting "responsible artificial intelligence", and on the other hand, it has tried to "direct the trouble away" and spared no effort to promote the actual combat of intelligent weapons in conflicts around the world. In February 2024, Time magazine disclosed the fact that a large number of American artificial intelligence companies were involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Some corporate executives did not shy away from saying that "on the battlefield, we can do things that we cannot do in the United States."

It is not difficult to imagine that the US military may sell a large number of intelligent products to Taiwan under the cover of the concept of "artificial intelligence island", including various unmanned vehicles, drones, unmanned boats, and various intelligent machines. They will enter Taiwan's cities, villages, streets and alleys under the guise of people's livelihood and welfare, quietly holding the people on the island hostage, and become a tool for the US military to turn Taiwan into a "no-man hell". (The author is a technical and economic observer)