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On the afternoon of the 22nd local time, Philippine President Marcos delivered his third State of the Nation Address during his tenure at the House of Representatives Building in Quezon City, Metro Manila. The high food prices in the Philippines, the ban on offshore gaming companies, and the tense situation in the South China Sea became the focus of attention of all parties.

Marcos delivered his third State of the Nation Address during his tenure (file photo)

Many foreign media have mentioned that Marcos' State of the Nation Address comes at a time when he and the Duterte family have "parted ways". Recently, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's daughter and current Vice President Sara has withdrawn from the Marcos government cabinet. She will not be present when Marcos delivers his speech on the 22nd. The Philippine Star reported that according to a statement issued by the Philippine Vice President's Office, Sara will not watch Marcos' State of the Nation Address on TV or electronic devices that day.

According to the Philippine Star on the 22nd, at the beginning of the State of the Nation Address, Marcos promised to solve the problem of soaring food prices, especially rice. "Although the (Philippine economic) data is good, these figures are meaningless to our people who are facing the reality of high prices." According to reports, in recent months, the price of rice in the Philippines has hit a 15-year high.

Hong Kong's South China Morning Post said on the 21st that in Marcos' State of the Nation Address this year, economic issues such as inflation were the most concerned by the Filipino people, and more and more people criticized him for failing to fulfill his campaign promise to lower food prices. Data released by the Philippine National Statistics Bureau this month showed that the country's inflation rate in June was 3.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. However, a survey released by the Philippine polling agency Social Weather Stations (SWS) on the 19th showed that more than half of Filipinos believed that they were poor due to inflation, and this proportion rose from 46% (12.9 million households) in March to 58% (16 million households) in June.

Another move that has attracted the attention of the Philippine media is to ban all offshore gaming companies (PAGOs) from operating in the country. Marcos said that PAGOs have been involved in illegal areas such as financial fraud, money laundering, human trafficking, etc., and "the gross abuse and refusal to respect our system and laws must be stopped."

On the South China Sea issue, Marcos claimed on the 22nd that the so-called "West Philippine Sea" "is not just something we imagined, it is ours". According to the Philippine Star, the speech directly mentioned the tension in the South China Sea for less than 5 minutes. Marcos said that appropriate diplomatic channels and mechanisms "under a rules-based international order" "remain the only acceptable means of resolving disputes". Agence France-Presse said that Marcos did not directly mention China, but said that the Philippines "cannot give in" on the South China Sea issue.

According to the Philippines' GMA News Network, while Marcos was delivering his State of the Union address, multiple demonstrations were taking place. On the 22nd, the Philippine government deployed a large number of police forces outside the House of Representatives building.

The South China Morning Post quoted risk analysts as saying that Marcos' current ruling situation is "fragile" and economic problems are his "weakness", "which has lowered his approval rating". The Philippine Rappler website recently published an article saying that the State of the Union Address has always been a platform for the Philippine president to communicate in a one-way manner and publicize his own achievements in governance, but Marcos needs to do more than that this time. He also needs to eliminate people's doubts and uncertainties about his leadership ability. (Zhao Jueyun)

Further reading

China and the Philippines reached a "key agreement" on the situation of Ren'ai Reef. China: We hope the Philippines will keep its promise

According to the news released by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the early morning of the 22nd, China and the Philippines have reached a temporary arrangement on the management of the situation at Ren'ai Reef. The Associated Press described it as a "key agreement" on the 22nd. The Financial Times of the United Kingdom said that the temporary arrangement reached by China and the Philippines may help "calm down" the tension that has lasted for about a year.

However, on the 22nd, Philippine President Marcos said in his third State of the Nation Address that the country "cannot yield" and "cannot waver" on the South China Sea issue. He also mentioned that appropriate diplomatic channels and mechanisms "under a rules-based international order" "remain the only acceptable means of resolving disputes."

Experts interviewed by the Global Times believe that the temporary arrangement reached by China and the Philippines on managing the situation on the Ren'ai Reef reflects that the two sides have made some substantial progress in avoiding a crisis, which will also help reduce misunderstandings and misjudgments, but whether the Philippines can abide by the agreement remains to be seen.

"We hope the Philippines will keep its promise"

The Associated Press reported on the 22nd that Chinese and Philippine officials reached the above temporary arrangement after a series of meetings in Manila. According to a statement issued by the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs on the 21st, "both sides continue to recognize the need to ease the situation in the South China Sea and manage differences through dialogue and consultation." The statement did not provide further details.

In the early morning of the 22nd, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a message saying that China has publicly announced three principled positions on how to deal with the current situation on Ren'ai Reef. First, the Philippines sent a "warship" to "run aground" on Ren'ai Reef for a long time, which violated China's sovereignty and violated the "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea". China still requires the Philippines to tow away the ship and restore Ren'ai Reef to its original state without people and facilities. Second, before the Philippines tows away the "run aground" warship, if the Philippines needs to provide living supplies to the residents of the ship, China is willing to proceed from humanitarianism, notify China in advance, and allow the Philippines to carry out the transportation after on-site verification, and China will monitor the whole process. Third, if the Philippines transports a large amount of building materials on board and attempts to build fixed facilities and permanent outposts, China will never accept it and will resolutely block it in accordance with laws and regulations to safeguard China's sovereignty and the seriousness of the "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea".

According to the Associated Press, Manila said that the Philippines and China hope to "end" the confrontation at Ren'ai Reef through this temporary arrangement. However, according to Reuters, Philippine Foreign Ministry spokesman Dasa said in a statement on the 22nd that China's statement that the Philippines needs to "notify in advance" about the supply mission is inaccurate. Dasa mentioned that the Philippines will continue to safeguard "our rights and jurisdiction" in the relevant waters. In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said at a regular press conference held on the afternoon of the 22nd that China has reached a temporary arrangement with the Philippines on the transportation of humanitarian supplies based on the three-point principle position on handling the current situation at Ren'ai Reef, which reflects China's goodwill. We hope that the Philippines will keep its promise, meet China halfway, and jointly manage the situation at sea.

The Associated Press said that since last year, tensions in the South China Sea have continued to escalate. A Philippine official revealed that the standoff on June 17 this year prompted Beijing and Manila to negotiate to prevent a conflict at Ren'ai Reef. On the same day, the Philippines broke its promise and sent a supply ship and two inflatable boats to illegally enter the waters near Ren'ai Reef in China's Nansha Islands, attempting to deliver supplies to the illegally "grounded" warship. During this period, the Philippine supply ship dangerously approached and deliberately collided with Chinese ships sailing normally. The Chinese Coast Guard took control measures such as warning, interception, boarding inspection, and forced expulsion against Philippine ships in accordance with the law, and the handling was reasonable, legal, professional and standardized. According to public reports, this is the first time that the Chinese Coast Guard has carried out a "boarding inspection" on Philippine ships.

The rusty Philippine warship that was illegally "beached" (data map)

Ding Duo, deputy director of the Institute of Marine Law and Policy of the China Institute of South China Sea Studies, said in an interview with the Global Times on the 22nd that the temporary arrangement reached by China and the Philippines on the management of the situation at Ren'ai Reef reflects that the two sides have made some substantial progress in managing maritime frictions and avoiding crises. The two sides can reach a consensus on the principles and methods of local disposal through existing consultation channels, which will also help reduce misunderstandings and misjudgments. What needs to be observed next is whether the Philippines can abide by the agreement between the two sides. Ding Duo believes that there may be some differences between different departments in the Philippines in viewing and handling the South China Sea issue. The Philippines needs to show its position and attitude to the outside world.

Philippines seeks defense deals with more countries

Whether the Philippines is considering involving other countries' troops in the resupply mission for the warship stranded on Ren'ai Reef has attracted attention in recent days. Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported on the 22nd that the news of this proposal first appeared in a report on a Philippine TV news channel, saying that the Philippine armed forces may combine the resupply mission with joint exercises with the United States, Japan, Britain and other countries. Later, the Philippine military also shared the report on social media. Analysts believe that this action may be interpreted by China as an "escalation of the situation" and the relevant plan is "very dangerous."

After U.S. officials said last Friday that "necessary actions will be taken" to support the Philippines in providing supplies to the stranded warship on the Second Thomas Shoal, the Philippine National Security Council said on the 21st that the relevant mission is currently a purely Philippine operation, but may change according to the instructions of senior officials.

Regarding the US's attitude towards the South China Sea issue, Ding Duo said that on the one hand, Washington hopes that Manila will "make a fuss" in the South China Sea from time to time, but on the other hand, it hopes that the Philippines will not make a big fuss. The expert believes that the US will not make major adjustments to its policies on the South China Sea issue in the future. It is likely that the US will continue to take some symbolic actions alone or in conjunction with its allies, and push the disputed issue towards "pan-securityization" and cheer up the Philippines at the diplomatic and public opinion levels.

According to Reuters on the 22nd, Philippine Defense Minister Teodoro said that the Philippines is seeking to reach a "Reciprocal Access Agreement" with Canada, France and New Zealand. Teodoro said that he hopes these agreements can be signed next year and said "this is close to the pinnacle of the defense alliance." Earlier this month, the Philippines and Japan signed the "Reciprocal Access Agreement", which is a defense agreement that allows the two countries to send troops and self-defense forces to each other's territory for training.

Ding Duo believes that the Philippines is trying to sign the above-mentioned agreements with more countries, first of all, to cooperate with the US government's idea of ​​strengthening the coordination of allies and partners in the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and to make full use of the time window before the US election to solidify bilateral and small multilateral security cooperation mechanisms. Secondly, the Philippines is trying to attract more and more countries outside the region to intervene in the South China Sea issue and so-called regional security affairs in order to increase its bargaining chips to put pressure on China on the South China Sea issue.

US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Brown meets with Philippine Armed Forces Chief of Staff Browner (Photo from social media)

However, military expert Zhang Xuefeng told the Global Times on the 22nd that it is impossible for the Philippines to let non-regional countries take advantage of the situation in the South China Sea. Usually, these countries may give the Philippines some "small favors", but at critical moments, they "will never risk conflict with China and rush to the front."

Filipinos call for avoiding being dragged into a "proxy war"

In the Philippines, some people are worried that the Philippines and China are heading for war. According to the Philippine Manila Times, groups from various fields launched a campaign last week, advocating measures to prevent the United States from dragging the Philippines into a "proxy war" with China. The movement is called "Against Imperialists," and its members call on the Marcos government to resolve territorial disputes with China through peaceful dialogue and non-violent means, hoping that the Filipino people will be free from the "threat of war" brought about by the expansion of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement between the United States and the Philippines.

On the other hand, with the possibility of former US President Trump returning to the White House, there are voices in the Philippine media that call for preparations for changes in US policies. The Manila Times published an article saying that at last week's Republican National Convention, Trump said that if he was elected, he would end "every international crisis created by the current government," including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestine-Israel conflict. He also mentioned the growing shadow of conflict hanging over South Korea, the Philippines and Taiwan. The article said that if Trump is elected as the US president and fulfills his promise, Marcos will find that he has an empty bag in his hand, and for him, "it is wise to take the right remedial measures now."