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[Global Times Special Correspondent Bai Yuan, Global Times Special Correspondent in Pakistan Yao Xiao, Global Times Reporter Zhao Shuang] Nepal's Kathmandu Post reported on the 21st that the Nepali Parliament passed a vote of confidence in Nepal's Prime Minister Oli on the same day. According to reports, there are 275 members of the Nepali Parliament, 263 of whom participated in the vote. Oli received 188 votes in favor, with a vote rate of more than 2/3, winning the parliamentary vote of confidence. According to reports, Oli withdrew from the coalition government led by Prachanda in early July, causing the parliament to pass a vote of no confidence in Prachanda. On the 15th of this month, Oli was sworn in as the Prime Minister of the coalition government. According to regulations, he needs to win a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives within 30 days. Experts interviewed by the Global Times on the 22nd said that although Oli chose to form a coalition government with the allegedly "pro-Indian" Nepali Congress Party, under his leadership, Nepal will continue to maintain a balance between China and India, especially in its relations with China, and will continue to develop in a pragmatic and friendly direction.

Nepali Prime Minister Oli delivered a speech in Kathmandu, Nepal, July 21, 2024. (Visual China)

More than 10 governments have been replaced in 16 years

According to reports, on the evening of July 3, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) to which Oli belongs announced the withdrawal of its support for the government of then-Prime Minister Prachanda, which directly led to the "collapse" of the Prachanda government. Prior to this, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and the Nepali Congress Party reached a cabinet agreement. Oli was officially sworn in on July 15 and served as the Prime Minister of Nepal for the fourth time.

The Emerging Nepal reported on the 21st that Oli announced to the Nepali Parliament the contents of the cabinet agreement reached between the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) and the Nepali Congress. The agreement stipulates that after Oli serves as prime minister for two years, the post of prime minister will be handed over to the chairman of the Nepali Congress and former prime minister Shepard Deuba until the 2027 general election.

According to The Hindu, in the 2022 general election, Prachanda's CPN (Maoist Center) allied with the Nepali Congress to run for election. However, on December 25 of that year, the Nepali Congress refused to support Prachanda as prime minister, and the CPN (Maoist Center) allied with the second largest party in parliament, the CPN (United Marxist-Leninist), so that Prachanda could become prime minister. In February 2023, after the CPN (Maoist Center) supported Nepali Congress leader Paudel as president of Nepal, the CPN (United Marxist-Leninist) announced its withdrawal from the coalition government, and the CPN (Maoist Center) instead allied with the Nepali Congress. However, in March this year, the two sides had differences over the position of speaker, and the CPN (Maoist Center) ended its alliance with the Nepali Congress and chose to form a cabinet with the CPN (United Marxist-Leninist) again.

The Hindustan Times reported that since Prachanda became the first Prime Minister of the Republic of Nepal in 2008, about 14 governments have been replaced in 16 years. The political situation has been in turmoil for a long time, and the new government still faces huge challenges in ensuring political stability.

Lin Minwang, deputy director of the Center for South Asian Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times on the 22nd that Nepal's frequent changes of government have made major policy changes almost impossible to achieve. He gave the example that when Prachanda, who was dismissed from his post, first entered politics, he was an image of a "revolutionary". After the ups and downs of Nepal's political arena, his political skills have become more flexible.

Relations with India and China are top priority

On the 21st, Oli outlined the government's five major goals, including completing existing projects, localizing product production to replace imports and encouraging companies to use local materials, continuing the preferential policies of the previous government, revising the budget when necessary, and eliminating hunger. Oli also stated that corruption would be severely cracked down on.

Indian media has paid extensive attention to Oli's coalition government. The Times of India recently commented that considering Oli's pro-China history, India's main concern is whether he will join the Belt and Road Initiative during his tenure. The Times of India quoted Rajan Bhattarai, head of foreign policy of the Communist Party of Nepal (UML), as saying that the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) believes that the implementation of anti-India policies will not help Nepal's development and promote the interests of the Nepalese. The newspaper also warned that Oli must rely on the support of the "pro-India" Nepali Congress Party, which is also a decisive factor.

Lin Minwang believes that, on the one hand, India has always regarded Nepal as its sphere of influence, and after seeing the "pro-Indian" Nepali Congress Party make a comeback, the Indian media naturally expressed expectations. But on the other hand, Nepal's new Prime Minister Oli is regarded as "pro-China" by India because during his previous term, China-Nepal relations made some great progress, so India is very worried.

Kathmandu University law professor Adhikari told the media that Nepal has suffered from turmoil for a long time, and he hopes that the new government can make a smooth transition and provide a relatively stable development environment for the local economy. Adhikari also said that for any Nepali government, relations with India and China are the top priority, but Nepal will try its best to maintain a balance and avoid damaging relations with any country.

Will not publicly choose sides

The Kathmandu Post commented in a report on the 21st that Oli is a "nationalist" who had previously deteriorated relations between Nepal and India due to the map incident during his tenure. Now that he is back in power, some people expect him to confront India and speak for Nepal, which is actually "impossible." The newspaper said that Oli had been trying to repair relations with India in the past, but was met with the cold shoulder from India, which had always kept its distance from him and he was increasingly alienated, and India still doubts him.

Qian Feng, a researcher at the National Institute of Strategic Studies at Tsinghua University, said in an interview with the Global Times that Oli adopted a pragmatic and friendly attitude towards China and firmly adhered to the one-China principle. In 2019, China-Nepal relations were upgraded to a strategic cooperative partnership of everlasting friendship for development and prosperity. Oli was the Prime Minister of Nepal at that time.

Qian Feng said that even if a coalition government is formed with the Congress Party, China-Nepal relations will develop steadily after Oli takes office, because all political parties, including the Nepali Congress Party, have maintained stable cooperative relations and close exchanges with China, and my country adheres to the principle of mutual respect and non-interference in each other's internal affairs towards all political parties in Nepal. Qian Feng believes that based on national interests, facing the two major neighbors of China and India, Nepal will uphold its usual balanced attitude and will not openly "take sides."