news

Author/ Lin Haidong

On July 13th local time, the gunfire in Pennsylvania gave Trump a new heroic image and added uncertainty to the US election.On July 21, local time, Biden announced that he would not run for re-election, which not only put an end to his half-century political career, but also became a "One of the worst political collapses in American history”（The Wall Street Journal says）。

With 107 days left until the US election, Biden's withdrawal has further increased the uncertainty of the election. So far, Biden, the Clintons, and more than 150 Democratic senators, congressmen, and governors support current Vice President Harris' candidacy, but four heavyweights of the Democratic Party - former President Obama, former House Speaker Pelosi, and Democratic leaders of the Senate and House of Representatives Schumer and Jeffries - have not yet expressed support for the vice president who likes to laugh.Trump, on the other hand, believes that Harris is easier to defeat than Biden, and appears to be full of confidence and determined to win.

Whether Trump can return to office is now an unknown matter, but in the more than 100 days before the results of the November election are announced, many people in the world will undoubtedly be worried, probably including Kim Jong-un.

Between 2018 and 2019, Kim Jong-un and Trump had a honeymoon period and established what North Korea calls a "special close relationship." Although the North Korea-US negotiations and the situation on the peninsula have undergone dramatic changes from winter to spring and from spring directly to winter again in the past two years, the "special close relationship" between Kim and Trump has continued, and the two countries' falling out has not affected their personal friendship. Although Kim Jong-un has not yet made a public statement on Trump's assassination, and North Korea has not publicly commented on the upcoming US election, Trump's first campaign rally after his assassination (Grand Rapids, Michigan, July 20, local time, as shown below) said that he and Kim Jong-un get along well and Kim Jong-un wants him back, "If you want to know,I think he misses me”。

We have no way of knowing whether Kim Jong-un misses Trump. But compared with Biden and Harris, who are "principled" towards North Korea, Trump, who likes to make deals and does not play by the rules, may be more in line with Kim Jong-un's taste; the events that happened between North Korea and the United States in 2018-2019 are the best evidence.

For Kim Jong-un, the best way to resolve the North Korea-U.S. relationship is undoubtedly“Top-down” diplomacy of heads of state, the upper level makes the decision, and the lower level follows the rules, instead of discussing everything and then handing it over to the upper level for selection and decision-making. This approach works in North Korea under the "sole leadership system", but it obviously doesn't work in the United States. Trump is the one who has tried and dared to do so. If he makes a comeback, there is still a glimmer of hope for this approach. Although Kim Jong-un, who was full of enthusiasm and confidence at the time, suffered losses at the hands of Trump and became a victim of Trump's series of "PR shows" in Singapore, Hanoi, and Panmunjom, it is interesting that he still maintains a "special close relationship" with Trump, and publicly blames the "shit stirrer" Bolton and "middleman" Moon Jae-in for the cold and deadlock in the North Korea-US negotiations, which can be regarded as leaving a way for the future.

Of course, Kim Jong-un will no longer think that he can "solve the problem during Trump's first term" as he did back then, nor will he rush to blow up the nuclear test site or stop the nuclear missile program. As the saying goes, one learns from one's mistakes. Moreover, in the four years that Biden has been holding on, North Korea has become a "nuclear-armed country" with more nuclear weapons and missiles, even military reconnaissance satellites, and a nuclear force policy written into the constitution. I don't know how many more cards Kim Jong-un has in his hand now than in the last Trump era. Therefore, even if he misses Trump, his will will inevitably shift from the "denuclearization of the peninsula" of the year to "recognition of the status of a nuclear-armed country." In the past four years, the sea has actually changed a lot. I just don't know if Trump, who thinks he "gets along well" with Kim Jong-un and "feels that Kim Jong-un misses me," is aware of this?

Kim Jong-un is now generally waiting and watching. From the perspective of "being able to deal with" Trump is certainly easier than the "principled" white leftists like Harris. At least Trump basically does not talk about North Korea's Human Rights, or even take it seriously. It is worth noting that in the context of the improvement of North Korea-Russia relations, although North Korea-Russia relations are the top priority of North Korea's diplomacy,Solving the North Korea-U.S. relations issue remains the top priority of North Korea’s diplomacyAlthough the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs has added the "North Korea-Russia Exchange and Cooperation Promotion Association" to the non-governmental organizations it "funded" and removed the original "North Korea-US Non-governmental Exchange Association", this does not mean "close to Russia and far from the United States", but rather shows that North Korea is not interested in the so-called "North Korea-US non-governmental exchanges" including the 1.5 track at this stage, because it is not an effective way to solve the problems in North Korea-US relations. This means that Kim Jong-un is very likely to use this method to emphasize that the future North Korea-US relations must be solved through a "top-down" approach.

We know that North Korea’s diplomacy with the United States in 2018-2019 was led by the United Front Department system led by Kim Yong-chol (Asia Pacific Peace Council) is in charge, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is just a supporting role. Currently, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is led by Choi Sun-hui, an "American expert". The Vice Prime Minister and the North American Bureau in charge of American affairs have basically maintained a complete structure and stable personnel. The ambassadors to the United Nations headquarters in Vienna and Geneva are also "American experts" of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and have served as directors or deputy directors in charge of American affairs. This diplomatic personnel layout is basically in line with the primary task of North Korea's diplomacy. More importantly, Kim Yong-chol, who once led diplomacy with the United States, has been temporarily out of the core circle (2022.12 The Sixth Plenary Session of the Eighth Central Committee) and returned to the core circle as an alternate member of the Political Bureau (2023.6 The Eighth Plenary Session of the Eighth Central Committee). Although Kim Yong Chol only holds the honorary title of "United Front Department Advisor" during his return, the outside world tends to regard his duties as "towards South Korea", but in fact, the significance of Kim Yong Chol's return is more focused on "towards the United States". Against the background of "North-South becoming North-South Korea" and the abolition and reorganization of the United Front Department into the 10th Bureau of the Party Central Committee, Kim Yong Chol still holds the seat of alternate member of the Political Bureau without actual appointment. This personnel arrangement is actually intriguing. Perhaps, Kim Yong Chol is the person who represents Kim Jong-un in dealing with presidential candidate Trump at this stage. After all, Kim Yong Chol has not only met Trump with Kim Jong-un many times, but also entered the White House and received extremely high courtesy from the United States. He is considered to be one of the few elders on the North Korean side who can talk to Trump and communicate relatively easily.

At present, there are quite a few countries that are doing psychological construction and diplomatic preparation for the "second Trump era", such as Japan, Ukraine, and some European countries belonging to the EU or NATO. We have no way of knowing whether North Korea is also doing similar work, because it is not as open and transparent as the above countries, but considering the current situation on the peninsula and North Korea's current foreign policy and personnel layout, Trump's statement that Kim Jong-un misses him may not be without some truth. At this time, there are still more than 100 days before the US election, so let's wait and see!