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Zhitong Finance APP learned that President Biden announced that he would not seek re-election and expressed support for Vice President Kamala Harris as the next candidate of the Democratic Party. This news has caused waves on the political stage and brought new variables to the cryptocurrency market. If Trump can enter the White House again, those Bitcoin miners and cryptocurrency companies that have been blocked from listing in the United States may usher in a turnaround and become big winners in the digital asset field. At the same time, companies that rely on overseas markets may face the risk of losing market share.

On social media, Elon Musk's head was added with laser eyes. This symbol of enthusiasm for Bitcoin was widely circulated, showing the cryptocurrency community's optimism about the future development of Bitcoin. Teong Hng, CEO of Satori Research, pointed out that active trading in the over-the-counter options market indicates that Bitcoin may soon return to its historical highs. In particular, the rising interest in call options with an exercise price of $100,000 in December 2024 reflects the growing bullish sentiment of institutional investors on Bitcoin. Hng said he "expects a strong rebound at the end of the year, marked by Trump's victory."

As Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrencies becomes increasingly open, market observers are beginning to reassess the prospects of the industry. Although it is still impossible to predict the outcome of the November election, Trump's lead in the polls and his positive remarks on cryptocurrencies have undoubtedly given the industry a shot in the arm.

Christian Catalini, founder of the MIT Cryptoeconomics Lab, noted: “If the American people are willing to accept new rules, then almost everyone can be a winner in this change.”

Spring for Bitcoin Miners

Since Biden's poor performance in the debate, the rise in Bitcoin prices and the surge in the share prices of cryptocurrency blockchain verification companies have become the most significant market reactions. Trump's meeting with Bitcoin miners in June and his positive remarks on Truth Social show that he sees Bitcoin mining as an important means to fight against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and emphasize the importance of "Made in the USA".

During this period, the share prices of listed companies such as Marathon Digital (MARA.US) and Riot Platforms (RIOT.US) soared by about 30%, while the share price of Cipher Mining (CIFR.US) rose by nearly 50%, showing the market's strong confidence in these companies.

New opportunities for IPOs in the cryptocurrency market

After the turmoil in the cryptocurrency market in 2022, companies in the industry seem to be regaining their spirits and starting to plan initial public offerings (IPOs), which seemed unimaginable not long ago. Circle, an institution that issued a stablecoin USDC worth about $33 billion, withdrew its listing application more than a year ago, but now resubmitted its IPO application in January. Meanwhile, Northern Data, which has transformed from a cryptocurrency mining business to an artificial intelligence computing service provider, is considering listing in the United States with a valuation of up to $16 billion. In addition, Kraken, the second largest cryptocurrency trading platform in the United States, is also actively preparing for its IPO.

However, these companies have been facing major challenges in obtaining approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The SEC considers many cryptocurrency tokens as unregistered securities, and SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has been controversial for his strict supervision and legal actions against cryptocurrency companies during his tenure, which has been criticized by many industry leaders, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong. Against this backdrop, if Trump is re-elected, he may appoint an SEC chairman who is more friendly to the cryptocurrency industry, bringing new hope to these companies' IPO path.

New opportunities for digital exchanges

Trump’s reelection could also make the banking system more open to cryptocurrency companies. Currently, the bankruptcy of cryptocurrency-friendly banks such as Silvergate and Signature has limited cryptocurrency companies’ access to banking services. If Trump can promote the banking system’s acceptance of cryptocurrencies, this will undoubtedly bring new life to digital asset trading platforms.

Challenges from overseas competitors

Although Trump's victory may bring general optimism to the cryptocurrency industry, the change may also bring challenges to certain companies. Especially for those offshore cryptocurrency trading platforms, such as Binance, OKX and Deribit, which have gained market share due to strict US regulations. If the US regulatory environment becomes more friendly, local companies may launch more diversified financial products and services, such as cryptocurrency options and futures contracts that offer higher leverage or more flexible expiration dates, which may weaken the competitive advantages of these offshore platforms.

Meanwhile, Chinese bitcoin mining machine manufacturer Bitmain may also face challenges. As the world's largest bitcoin mining machine supplier, Bitmain's market position may be impacted by the Trump administration's foreign trade policies and its vision to promote bitcoin production in the United States. As American companies such as Block and Auradine bring innovative chips and mining equipment to the market, Bitmain may find its dominance in the US market threatened and need to cope with an increasingly competitive environment.

The Future of Central Bank Digital Currencies

Trump’s strong opposition to central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could have far-reaching consequences for the sector. Many cryptocurrency players view CBDCs as a way for governments to increase financial surveillance of citizens. Along with Trump’s newfound support for cryptocurrencies, there has also been a distaste for the idea of ​​creating a digital dollar. In the United States, while research on CBDCs is ongoing, the Federal Reserve has yet to make a formal decision on whether to pursue a CBDC.

If Trump returns to the White House next year, his opposition to CBDCs could be the final straw that breaks the concept, further cementing the place of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. economy.