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A Japanese warship mistakenly entered Chinese territorial waters. The strange thing is that they may have been unaware of it. Can China sink it?

2024-07-18

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Recently, a destroyer of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force briefly entered Chinese territorial waters near Zhejiang Province without notifying China in advance and ignoring repeated warnings from Chinese ships. This behavior has aroused heated discussions on whether China has the right to directly sink the Japanese ship. At present, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has lodged solemn representations with the Japanese side, and the Japanese government has also promised to investigate the reasons for the mistaken entry into Chinese territorial waters.

According to media reports, the Japanese side has explained that this was a technical error and stated that China will deal with relevant acts of entering Chinese waters without consent in accordance with the law. It is worth noting that China had just announced a naval exercise in the waters the day before. When the Japanese destroyer Suzutsuki was carrying out the task of monitoring China's missile exercises in the East China Sea, it was too close to the Chinese territorial waters about 22 kilometers off the coast of Zhejiang Province, and the Chinese ships repeatedly asked it to leave. Despite this, the Suzutsuki continued to accelerate in Chinese territorial waters and left Chinese territorial waters about 20 minutes later.

A Japanese official believes that the Japanese ship's entry into Chinese territorial waters may be due to a "procedural error". The Japanese Ministry of Defense has launched an investigation into the captain of the Suzutsuki, but refused to comment on issues related to the Self-Defense Forces' actions. Tokyo said that Japan has the right of innocent passage recognized by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, so the Suzutsuki's entry into Chinese territorial waters did not violate international law.

How should we view this incident rationally? Does the Chinese military really have the power to directly sink the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force's ships? This question is very interesting. First of all, the "procedural error" of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force ships near the Chinese coast is itself a terrifying question. From the perspective of motivation, it is unlikely that the Japanese side would dare to enter China's territorial waters without authorization. Then, the only possibility is that the Japanese side mistakenly thought that "there is no problem". So, why did the navigation equipment on the Japanese warship fail? Was it a technical failure, or did the Japanese Self-Defense Forces do it on purpose? We will not make groundless speculations on these issues, but it should be a fact that the Japanese on the scene did not know that they had entered China's territorial waters.

Secondly, can the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force's ships obtain security guarantees based on the right of innocent passage recognized by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea? The answer is absolutely not, because China has already issued a notice of exercise blockade. If the Chinese government is determined to make the Japanese suffer a big loss, the Chinese military's missiles have every reason to send them into the abyss.

However, considering that the relationship between China and Japan has not yet developed to the point where it needs to be resolved through war, and that it is relatively normal for the other side to send warships to scout our exercises, China seems to only want to embarrass the Japanese, but does not intend to confront them directly. If it were Russia, it might directly sink the Japanese warships. Although it seems to be a relief, Sino-Japanese relations will inevitably suffer serious damage, which is exactly what the United States wants. The current attitude of Japan's "refusal to comment" just makes Japan owe China a favor, which is also quite meaningful.

In addition, if Japan does not give an explanation to China, then Chinese warships may also enter Japanese territorial waters in "innocent passage" in the future, and the Japanese will have to bear the consequences whether they want to or not.

To sum up, the real weirdness of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force warships entering Chinese territorial waters is, who caused the "program error" of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces ships? Was it the intervention of the Americans, the mistakes of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, or the electronic countermeasures of the People's Liberation Army? These are all worth our deep thought. China got an opportunity to sink a Japanese warship, but chose to let it go. This not only reflects the strategic determination of a great power, but also puts the Japanese in a great diplomatic passiveness. In the future, will they dare to stroll around the Chinese coast? If they go astray again, they will really jump into the sea to feed the fish. China will never give the Japanese a second chance.