"one chief and four deputy officers" of the national development and reform commission attended the press conference. is the incremental fiscal policy "ready to go"?
2024-10-07
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on october 8, a-shares will open with the attention of the global capital market.
during the national day, first of all, there were constant news about securities firms working overtime, and the number of a-share accounts opened by major securities firms hit a record high; the hong kong stock market ushered in a significant rise, providing valuable insights for a-share investors; and then blackrock, wall street institutions such as hsbc are optimistic about chinese stocks, foreign investors have accelerated their positions in chinese assets, and jpmorgan chase’s trading seats have accumulated more than hk$8 billion in purchases. all this seems to be preparing for market sentiment to heat up.
it is worth noting that after the “924” state council information office press conference and the “926” politburo meeting launched major policies, the first state council information office press conference on the systematic implementation of a package of incremental policies will be held at 10 a.m. on the 8th. . "one chief and four deputy officers" from the national development and reform commission will attend together. this standard is also rare in recent years. many people in the industry believe that there is still room for increasing fiscal policy in the future, and the market has even begun to further speculate on the possibility of fiscal policy.
looking back at the policy package at the end of september, its focus is on three major areas: monetary policy, real estate policy and consumption policy. for example: lowering reserve requirements and interest rates to release liquidity, using two major structural tools to release liquidity in the a-share market, "stopping the decline and stabilizing" to protect the real estate market, etc., and these continue to give the market sufficient policy expectations.
since the unexpected policy was launched on september 24, market trading volume has been rising steadily and has continued to set short and medium-term records. in the five trading days from september 24 to 30, the total turnover of the a-share market reached 7.37 trillion, of which 4 trading days exceeded one trillion. zheshang securities research report stated that the recent unexpected policy combination has focused on currency, real estate, capital markets and other fields, which will help improve liquidity and boost market confidence and risk appetite.the market expects that incremental fiscal policy will be more active,this may require further observation of the tool selection and focus of fiscal expansion.it is recommended to focus on the relevant agenda of the standing committee of the national people's congress in october.
the reporter noticed that many institutions believe that the direction of fiscal policy will become the focus of observation. the core area of incremental policies that the market is now expecting is fiscal policy.
multiple research reports show that the gap in broad fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first three quarters is large, and incremental fiscal policies are ready to go. bank of china strategy said that the press conference on october 8 is expected to bring detailed implementation rules of fiscal policy. a citic research report stated that the national development and reform commission will introduce incremental policies at the state council information office press conference on the 8th, and believes that capital markets, real estate and fiscal policies are all expected to increase. zhongtai securities believes that the possible future directions of fiscal policy include adjusting the budget and issuing more government bonds; revitalizing fiscal deposits; optimizingin order to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure and increase the tilt towards the consumption sector, we may appropriately increase public consumption, increase subsidy support for consumption on the basis of replacing old bulk consumer goods with new ones, and increase cash payments to specific groups of people.spdb international said that in terms of fiscal policy,the government may consider introducing preferential policies in tax or social security areas, to help residents, especially low- and middle-income groups, increase their disposable income to support consumption;the national development and reform commission is expected to launch more reserve projects to stabilize infrastructure investment。
in fact, the politburo's stance on fiscal policy at the september politburo meeting was extremely positive. the meeting mentioned "increasing countercyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies" and "the need to issue and make good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds." this provides the basis for the follow-up the introduction of large-scale fiscal stimulus policies provides the possibility.
(popular news reporter dai yue)
