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interface news reporter | tao zhixian

interface news editor | chen feixia

before the holiday, the a-share market index and individual stocks showed signs of mad bull. in the five trading days before the holiday (september 24 to september 30), the shanghai composite index rose by 21.37%, the shenzhen stock exchange component index rose by 30.26%, and the chinext index rose by 42.12%. during this period, the shanghai stock exchange system experienced a system outage and many other witnessing the moment of history, many investors "really celebrated the holidays".

on september 30, brokerage stocks collectively closed their gains, and the securities (yangtze river) index exploded by 10.37%, hitting a new high for the year. in terms of individual stocks,oriental fortune (300059.sz)the stock price nearly doubled in five trading days.citic securities (600030.sh)it is only 15% short of the all-time high.

at this point in time, what investors are most concerned about is which brokerage stock has performed well in this bull market? with continuous skyrocketing prices, can brokerage stocks still be bought?

faucet or elastic

if you still need to choose an investment target now, leading or small and medium-sized securities firms with high flexibility are good choices.

ranking first on the growth list of securities companies is oriental fortune from gem (which owns oriental fortune securities). the company’s range (from september 18 to september 30, the same below) increased by as much as 96%, and the stock price was close to doubled, the range turnover rate is as high as 51%, and the market value has returned to more than 300 billion yuan.

the main reason why oriental fortune can lead is its gem attribute. since the gem's daily limit is 20%, oriental fortune "rose quickly." flush (300033.sz), also on the gem, also rose as high as 96% during the same period.

among traditional securities firms,guohai securities (000750.sz)the range increase is 59%, ranking second in the increase list, and the range turnover rate is 39%; ranking thirdjinlong shares (000712.sz)the range increase is 58%, and the range turnover rate is 91%;tianfeng securities (601162.sh)it ranked fourth with a range increase of 48%, and a range turnover rate of 51%. the market values ​​of these three securities firms are 30.8 billion yuan, 13.1 billion yuan and 38 billion yuan respectively.

it is worth mentioning that only two of the top ten securities companies in this round of growth list have a market value of more than 100 billion, namely oriental fortune andcitic securities. citic securities' current range increase is 44%, its turnover rate is 15%, and its total market value is as high as 403.1 billion yuan. the market value of the remaining eight securities firms does not exceed 40 billion yuan, and the total market value does not even exceed oriental fortune. therefore, the absolute leaders (oriental fortune and citic securities rank among the top two in the industry in terms of market capitalization, and the third with a market capitalization of over 100 billion) and small and medium-sized securities firms with high selection flexibility and small market capitalization are the standard-bearers of this bull market.

in addition, previously known as the "bull market standard bearer"everbright securities (601788.sh)the range increase is 36%, ranking in the middle of the industry. the range turnover rate is 13%. the current total market value is 88.8 billion yuan, which has not reached 100 billion yuan.

although oriental wealth has nearly doubled, due to the serious homogeneity among securities companies, there is not much difference in the annual increase. in the annual increase list,china merchants securities (600999.sh)ranked first with a 46% increase, with a total market value of 169.1 billion yuan. it is worth mentioning that in this round (from september 18 to september 30), china merchants securities only rose 30.63%, ranking second to last among the 45 securities firms.guosen securities (002736.sz)ranking third with an annual increase of 43%, the current range increase is 37%, ranking in the middle of the industry.

in the annual growth rankings, the top three securities companies all have market values ​​of more than 100 billion. among the 45 securities (yangtze river) constituent stocks (haitong securities and guotai junan are still suspended from trading and are not included in the statistics, the same below), the market value only 10 companies have more than 100 billion.

in terms of price-to-book ratio, as of september 30, onlyhuachuang yunxin (600155.sh)one brokerage is in a net-breaking state, and the remaining 45the price-to-book ratios of all brokerages have returned to the surface.

among the top five securities firms with a price-to-book ratio, three (price-to-book ratiojinlong shares (5.4, orient fortune (4.3), and pacific (3.3)) ranked among the top three in this bull market gainer list.

can i still buy it?

the bull market has just started, and brokers are still on the road. doubling is the "standard option". at the index level, according to data from datong securities, during the last bull market (july 22, 2014 to june 12, 2015), the gem index rose by 198.38%, the shanghai composite index rose by 151.47%, and the shanghai and shenzhen 300 index rose by 146.28% during this period, the average daily turnover of the two cities was 780.397 billion. on march 17, 2015, the turnover of the two cities exceeded 1 trillion for the first time; 30 of the 31 first-level industries in shenwan increased by more than 100%. at that time, the market entered a cycle of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratios, and the entire capital market had sufficient liquidity. in addition, the expansion of margin trading and securities lending targets has brought a large amount of funds to the market.

in this round of bull market, the market has also started to "release water". on september 27, the central bank announced that it would lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points. after the reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions will be approximately 6.6%. on the same day, the open market 7-day reverse repurchase operation interest rate was adjusted from the previous 1.70% to 1.50%. previously, on september 24, pan gongsheng, governor of the central bank, stated that the first phase of the swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies was 500 billion yuan, and the funds obtained could only be invested in the stock market. chairman of the securities and futures commissionwu qingit also stated that the china securities regulatory commission will promote the entry of various medium and long-term funds into the market.

the collective and continuous surge of brokerage firms is a sign of a bull market.as a typical cyclical industry, brokerage stocks often lead the rise in the early stages of a bull market. since september 18, the securities (yangtze river) index has been rising from 7355 points. in just nine trading days (to september 30), the index rose 39.35% to 10249.23 points. on september 30, it rose 10.37%. however, even after continuous surges, the securities (yangtze river) index only rose 26% during the year, and has not even touched the point at the beginning of 2022. it should be pointed out that in 2014, the securities index rose by 156% throughout the year. in 2007, it once rose by 337%, and the annual closing price rose by 230%.

in terms of individual stocks, the historical price-to-book ratio quantiles of traditional first-tier securities companies such as gf securities (000776.sz) and china international finance securities (600109.sh) are only single digits. the historical price-to-book ratio quantiles of leading securities companies oriental fortune and citic securities also within 40%.

overall, the current price-to-book ratio of brokerage stocks is still low.as of september 30, 30 of the 45 securities firms had a price-to-book ratio lower than their 40% period, and 36 brokers had a price-to-book ratio lower than the historical half point, and the overall risk was low.