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on the last trading day before the national day, a-shares rose sharply. except for the shanghai composite index, shanghai composite 50 index, and shanghai-shenzhen 300 index, which rose less than 10%, the other major indexes all rose more than 10%. during the long holiday, the hong kong stock market also rose sharply, with the hang seng index rising by 9.30% and the hang seng technology index rising by 13.36%.

during the holidays, many investors can’t wait to open the market early, which is obviously different from the psychological state before late september. so, what should i do if i miss the mark? what's the strategy? which sectors are worth focusing on? today, dr. niu and da ge discussed issues that everyone is concerned about.

dr. niu: hello, brother da. a-shares rose sharply the day before the holiday, and hong kong stocks also rose sharply during the holiday. many people can't wait to rush in tomorrow. i would like to ask, how do you view the market and what are your views on trading strategies?

da ge: in the article on september 29th, "burn to your heart's content!" bull market fire! "", i mentioned several confirmation criteria for bull market technology. one of them is that the shanghai composite index will break through the high point connecting 3708 points in december 2021 to 3418 points in may 2023. on september 30, the shanghai composite index successfully broke through this high point line.

at present, there is only one last condition left at the technical level, which is whether the may 2023 high of 3,418 points can be broken through. as long as it breaks through 3418 points, all the technical requirements for bull market confirmation will be met.

judging from the performance of hong kong stocks and investor sentiment during the long holiday, the shanghai composite index will break through 3,418 points tomorrow, and there is a high probability that there will be no suspense.

although the bull market has arrived, judging from the current market atmosphere, it is slightly overheated. judging from the investors i have contacted, those who do not have full positions or want to invest more money after the holidays want to enter the market as quickly as possible.

but will this sustained surge continue? i believe that this continued sharp rise will definitely encounter a more obvious cooling down.

the reason is simple. if investors can make 20 to 30% profits every week by relying on their courage through the stock market, then who will go into industry? who is willing to work hard in industry?

the market can change from fast to slow, but it won't always be fast. once the madness of the stock market causes the economy to shift from reality to virtual reality, companies and individuals will increase leverage to rush in, which will accumulate huge financial risks, and management's thinking will also be adjusted.

judging from the history of a-shares, when a fast bull trend appears in the initial stage of a big market, there will be an obvious slowdown.

at the end of july 1994, the shanghai composite index started from 325 points and doubled the index in just 6 days. there was a high and wide fluctuation on august 8, and a sharp drop of 12.67% on august 9. in the following august, the shanghai composite index fluctuated and slowed down significantly.

in the "519" market in 1999, the shanghai composite index rose by 21.05% in seven days, and then slowed down twice. one was the shock from may 28 to may 31, and the other was the two-day rapid adjustment from june 2 to june 3. even after it rose again, it experienced another one-day plunge on june 15.

from the perspective of institutional positions, this round of market started too quickly and rose very quickly. the positions of many institutions are insufficient. if you rely solely on retail investors to push up prices, it will be difficult for the market to develop in depth.

dago's point of view is very clear: even in a bull market, it will not always rise. there will be adjustments in the middle, and there will also be a single-day plunge. in the first three trading days after the holiday, there is a high probability that there will be a single-day medium-to-large negative line to achieve deceleration and cooling.

note that this is just a slowdown and does not mean that the market has stopped. once the medium and large negative line appears, it is the time to get on the train.

so, the post-holiday strategy is simple:

1. for these two types of investors who pursue stability and lack trading ability, do not rush forward crazy on the first day after the holiday. it is best to wait until the first medium and large negative line appears or after the market sentiment cools down. get in the car.

2. for investors with seriously insufficient positions, they can get on the bus appropriately, but do not rush, and reserve some funds for the high probability of a one-day washout or after the market sentiment cools down.

another point is that due to the high investor sentiment during the holidays, there is a high probability that core stocks in the core sectors will find it difficult to get on the train tomorrow; even if the stocks in the back row can get on the train, they still need to pay attention to the short-term risks of a washout.

as an old stock investor who has experienced many rounds of bull and bear markets, da ge would like to emphasize a few points about the bull market:

first, position is the key, don’t let your funds run out. only with sufficient positions can profits be maximized.

second, holding on is the best strategy. the "train" of the market is unstoppable for individuals. it is unrealistic to frequently exchange shares to get rich overnight.

for investors who want to maximize profits, when the market stage switches and the core main line switches, they need to quickly switch to the newly emerged core sectors.

third, those who have insufficient trading ability and no ability to control risks should not increase leverage or borrow money to speculate in stocks. although increasing leverage will accelerate the wealth growth of some investors, it will also increase the loss rate of some investors.

dr. niu: thank you da ge for your experience and strategies. in the trading days before the holiday, you repeatedly mentioned that you should pay attention to the three major sectors of finance, real estate, and consumption. judging from market performance, they have indeed become the main line of the market. so, what are the directions worth paying attention to after the holiday?

da ge: as mentioned before, in the linear upward stage of the first stage of the bull market, the sectors with the largest growth and the most elasticity are sectors that benefit from favorable policies. finance, real estate, and consumption fall into this category. in this regard, da ge will not go into details. you can read da ge’s articles before the festival.

in the coming period, i think there are three directions worth paying attention to.

the first is non-bank finance.

non-bank finance has obviously benefited from the bull market, and judging from the history of a-shares, non-bank finance has been very resilient in the bull market, especially when the bull market enters the mid-term.

non-bank finance is first represented by securities stocks, internet finance, and financial technology, followed by insurance stocks. the bull market will significantly increase the value of the assets of insurance companies. there are currently only 6 insurance stocks in the a-share market, which can be said to be relatively scarce.

the second is technology stocks.

in a bull market, because of abundant liquidity, the market has greater imagination for technology stocks than in shock and bear markets. in the last bull market, the "internet +" in the direction of science and technology became one of the two core themes of the entire bull market.

in september last year, new quality productivity was first proposed by senior leaders. since this year, the 11th collective study session of the political bureau of the cpc central committee, the government work report, and the third plenary session of the 20th cpc central committee have all mentioned new quality productivity.

in da ge’s view, to develop new productive forces, the most important thing is technological innovation, achieving technological self-reliance and breakthroughs in key core technologies. new productivity is interrelated with emerging industries and future industries. strategic emerging industries include new generation information technology, and future industries include quantum technology, future networks, etc.

at the market level, smic's hong kong stock price has hit a new high in the past four years, a-share ai core branch cpo xinyi sheng has hit a record high, and semiconductor's haiguang information has also hit a record high.

in terms of technology stocks, da ge believes that semiconductors/chips, ai, and the internet are the three major directions. in terms of themes, they include hongmeng, robots, driverless cars, etc.

the third is etf funds.

in a bull market, many people cannot beat the index, and this goal can basically be achieved through etf funds.

finally, da ge made a summary: investors are currently in high spirits, and this straight-line rise that makes sentiment "hot" needs to cool down and slow down, and it will most likely occur in the first three trading days after the holiday. therefore, don’t rush forward without thinking on the first day after the holiday. when the temperature drops and the speed drops, it’s the time for those who want to get on board.

in terms of sectors, non-bank financial and technology stocks are the two main focuses, and real estate and consumption are also the core of the stage. in addition, if everything is uncertain, just look at etf funds.

(zhang daoda)

according to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operational suggestions, and you must enter the market at your own risk.

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