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[text/observer network ruan jiaqi]

according to a report by the british media "financial times" on the 6th local time, in recent years, as the united states has continued to increase its unreasonable suppression of chinese manufacturers, indian companies are trying to take the opportunity to fill the gap left by washington's malicious restrictions on china's solar export products. market gap.

however, the reality is that india is increasingly dependent on china in trade and technology, making china's manufacturing industry more irreplaceable. at the same time, the u.s. tariff policy towards china is also facing the situation of stealing chicken and losing rice. biden the subsidy measures vigorously promoted by the government failed to attract indian manufacturers to invest in the united states, and the result was an embarrassing one-man show.

the financial times reported that, unable to compete with solar panels produced by chinese manufacturers, washington has repeatedly ignored china’s warnings and pushed forward protectionist measures, and has successively introduced a series of restrictive measures. the latest one includes last week's proposal by the u.s. department of commerce to impose high tariffs on solar products exported to four southeast asian countries, targeting chinese companies based there, where most of the u.s.'s solar panel imports currently come from.

the reckless operation, which disrupted normal trade markets, has forced some manufacturers and developers to look outside the region for markets that are not subject to tariffs. industry consultancy wood mackenzie expects battery manufacturing in countries outside major centers such as china and southeast asia to more than double in the coming years, with india accounting for 40% of new capacity.

the report quoted bloomberg data as saying that the united states imported more than $1.8 billion worth of solar panels and components from india last year, compared with only $250 million the year before. the momentum has led the ceo of lobby group national solar federation of india to declare: "there is no modular manufacturer in india who is not considering exports."

members of this lobby group include large indian manufacturers such as adani group, tata power and renew. as one of the largest renewable energy companies in india, renew ceo sumant sinha has made no secret of his coveting for the market space left by chinese companies being maliciously squeezed out by the united states. he told the financial times that demand for indian solar modules will increase as washington reduces its reliance on chinese supplies.

"there is a need to diversify, and india can actually be an alternative to china as far as green technology supply chains are concerned." sinha added that renew was considering exporting products from solar plants in india to the united states, but it still needs to waiting for the u.s. to introduce tariffs, "india will fill the gap."

but in fact, if it wants to "replace" chinese products, india, which is facing many economic problems, will not only find it difficult to realize this wish, but will also make china's manufacturing industry even more irreplaceable.

the us media "washington post" reported earlier, citing trade data and analysis by economists, that as india increases the production of smartphones, solar panels, pharmaceuticals and other goods, the indian economy's own dependence on chinese imports will also increase. increase, especially in the parts and components required for these products.

when referring to the significant progress made in india's solar panels, the "wall street post" pointed out that, correspondingly, india has further increased its dependence on chinese solar cells. according to a bloomberg data at the end of 2023, while accelerating the export of solar products to the united states, india purchased half to all of its solar panel components, such as modules, cells, wafers and solar panels, from china between 2021 and 2023. glass.

and while india has been trying to produce its own components for manufactured goods, its economic development has become increasingly dependent on foreign technological know-how, especially from china, as the indian government pursues a "self-reliance" strategy.

this has also led to an ironic situation: many indian analysts are arguing that in order to break away from dependence on china, india may need to continue to rely on its relationship with china. representatives of indian industry urged the government to relax visa restrictions on chinese technical personnel, and the indian government's chief economic adviser also proposed relaxing restrictions on chinese investment.

he also had to admit in a latest economic survey report that "in order to promote indian manufacturing and integrate india into the global supply chain, india will inevitably integrate itself into china's supply chain."

the washington post believes that this dynamic is a reality test for u.s. policymakers who are committed to promoting supply chain diversification and "reducing" the risks of commercial relations with china. a senior biden administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity admitted that it is currently unrealistic to think that things from china can be excluded from the u.s. supply chain.

the financial times also pointed out that in order to contain chinese solar products, the biden administration has launched a series of "combination punches" in recent years: imposing tariffs and so-called anti-circumvention tariffs, and detaining exports of chinese companies on the grounds of "forced labor" , and even did not hesitate to follow the policies of the trump administration... it can be said that it is doing everything possible. however, the import volume of solar panels in the united states has still reached a record high, and cheap imported solar panels have also played an important role in helping to accelerate the transformation of the u.s. power grid. to make matters worse, several indian manufacturers, including vsk energy, have postponed or canceled their plans to build factories in the united states.

pol lescano, a senior analyst at bloomberg, believes that this means that the tariff policy has not worked, and the subsidies provided by the "inflation reduction act" promoted by the biden administration are not enough to attract indian manufacturers to invest in the united states. because "they haven't actually found the right business and supply chain environment they need to scale up production."

in addition, the financial times also mentioned that many industry executives and analysts are also worried that the plan to build production lines in tariff-free markets may cause the u.s. government to play a "whack-a-mole" game on the tariff issue, or may billions of dollars worth of investments in these countries will be jeopardized in the future.

"while we acknowledge that domestic manufacturers face a challenging market landscape in the short term, these measures alone will not solve our macro challenges." hopper, president of the u.s. solar energy industries association, expressed opposition to the relevant tariff policies, "we need effective "

this article is an exclusive manuscript of observer.com and may not be reproduced without authorization.