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the heavy hits can’t stop!

stimulated by the ensuing positive news, etfs that are highly related to a-shares accelerated their gains again today. the science and technology innovation 50 etf listed on the hong kong stock exchange - southern science and technology innovation board 50 once rose by more than 30%; bosera science and technology 50 rose by more than 26%. the china southern csi 500 etf listed in tokyo, japan once soared by more than 75%. the fund experienced huge gains last week. this may be a preview of the relevant indexes after the a-share market opens.

today's renewed market surge may be due to expectations and expectations of fiscal policy stimulus. morgan stanley issued a research report saying that china is expected to launch a large-scale fiscal plan, which may cause onshore investors to respond positively. because this once again confirms the commitment to reflation and signals that more coordinated policies will be adopted.

collective acceleration

in early trading this morning, the hong kong stock market once rose sharply, and then the volatility increased somewhat. however, the ability to take over from below was obviously strong. after the decline of several major indexes narrowed, there was a force to rise again. at the same time, etfs that are highly related to a-shares have surged again. the southern science and technology innovation board 50 once rose by more than 30%; boshi science and technology innovation 50 rose by more than 26%.

it is worth noting that the china southern csi 500 etf listed on the japanese stock market once again surged by more than 75%. the index fund had a huge gain in just the past week.

news from asdaq finance pointed out that morgan stanley issued a research report stating that the mainland is expected to launch a larger fiscal package, which may cause onshore investors to respond positively. because this once again confirms the commitment to reflation and signals that more coordinated policies will be adopted. specific to the chinese stock market, morgan stanley pointed out that due to the lagging performance of the internet and gem, the index valuation has reached the average level of the past five years. although there may be a small strategic upward trend, we need to pay attention to changes in the external environment and the surge in volatility when the a-share market overheats.

morgan stanley also published a research report stating that after the central government introduced a series of economic stimulus measures, foreign capital poured into the chinese stock market in large quantities at the end of september, mainly driven by the inflow of us$6 billion from passive funds, while active funds on september 25 inflows during the period to october 2 were relatively mild, only about us$300 million; axj active funds reduced their holdings in china the most, followed by global and emerging market active funds.

citi issued a research report reiterating its positive view on the chinese market, raising the hang seng index target by 24% to 26,000 points at the end of june 2025, and setting the target at 28,000 points at the end of 2025 to reflect higher-than-expected growth in m2 and electricity demand. citigroup has raised its targets for the csi 300 and msci china index to 4,600 points and 84 points respectively in the first half of next year, and to 4,900 points and 90 points by the end of next year.

the bank believes that a series of policies issued by the central government are aimed at dealing with the risk of economic slowdown. it is estimated that the authorities will launch 3 trillion yuan in measures to support consumption. it also predicts that the federal reserve interest rate will be cut by 225 basis points from september 2024 to june 2025. , which can provide more flexibility for china to loosen its monetary policy. looking forward to a bright future, citigroup believes that industry analysts may raise their earnings per share forecast for next year in the coming financial reporting quarter.

national day data is also an inspiration

the national day holiday is coming to an end, and relevant data are also performing well. currently, the market is most concerned about real estate data and consumption data.

let’s look at real estate data first. according to cctv, china’s ministry of housing and urban-rural development revealed that during the national day holiday, the number of visits to most real estate projects participating in promotional activities increased by more than 50% year-on-year. specifically, from october 1st to 3rd at noon, the number of new house viewings in beijing increased by 92.5% compared with the same period last year, and the number of subscriptions tripled; the number of second-hand housing viewings increased by 104.1% compared with the same period last year. some properties in guangzhou received more than 150 visits per day, twice as much as usual.

in addition, according to data from le youjia research center, from september 30 to october 6, within one week of the release of the new policy, only the new home transaction volume of le youjia shenzhen stores increased by 979% compared to the same period last year. among them, on october 1 , shenzhen’s new housing transaction volume is expected to exceed 600 units, which has been rare in the past three years. according to statistics from shenzhen stores, the conversion rate for viewing new homes during the national day holiday increased from 2% in september to 12%. this means that out of 100 batches of customers looking at new houses, 12 batches of customers completed transactions, and the conversion rate reached a new high.

next, let’s look at consumption data. in terms of travel, the ministry of transport predicts that the number of cross-regional people movements during the national day golden week holiday will reach 1.94 billion; in terms of tourism, mafengwo big data shows that beijing, shanghai, chengdu, chongqing, guangzhou, xi'an, nanjing, hangzhou, suzhou , wuhan ranks among the top ten popular domestic city destinations during the national day holiday.

other big data shows that during this year’s national day holiday, international air ticket bookings have doubled compared with the same period last year, and people have traveled to 1,597 cities in 144 countries; in terms of movies, as of 13:14 on october 6, the 2024 national day schedule (october 1-7) movie box office (including pre-sales) exceeded 1.8 billion; in terms of catering, meituan data shows that in the five days before the national day, the average daily consumption of catering dine-in increased by 33.4% compared with the national day holiday in 2023. in terms of consumption period, consumption during the night period increased by 44.8 percentage points compared with the 2023 holiday. in the dining scene, tourists' consumption increased by more than 75% compared with the 2023 holiday, and night market searches increased by 170.3% compared with the 2023 holiday, becoming the number one search term near scenic spots during this year's holiday.