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1. “great depreciation” of the rmb exchange rate!

the u.s. dollar has been rising and the rmb has fallen by nearly 1,200 points. at the same time, the u.s. dollar index has continued to rise, and expectations of an interest rate cut by the federal reserve have also weakened during the national day holiday. in this environment, global macroeconomic constraints may tighten again, which is a factor that cannot be ignored.

looking back, we see that the bull market during this period happened to coincide with the usd/cnh depreciation cycle. the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on asset prices actually depends on the target weight of monetary policy. if monetary policy focuses more on macroeconomics, it may break the constraints of the external environment. of course, it is also necessary to observe whether further changes in the foreign exchange market are still within control.

2. the federal reserve’s huge loss exceeded us$200 billion, which was the first time on record.

losses have exceeded the $200 billion mark. it is reported that this number is updated weekly. the latest data shows that the loss reached -201.237 billion u.s. dollars, a record low.

in fact, the fed's books have been in the red since september 2022. the 2023 financial report shows revenue after expenses of -$114.3 billion, which is the largest annual loss in history. so why is the fed facing such huge losses? this is actually a side effect of "interest rate hikes".

3. hong kong stocks surged during the holidays, making those who didn’t get on the bus anxious!

hong kong stocks continued to rise, with the hang seng index rebounding by more than 30% cumulatively, and the cumulative increase during the year reaching 33.37%. after recent continuous gains, hong kong stocks have ranked first in the world in terms of gains during the year, ahead of u.s. stocks, japanese stocks and other markets.

during the national day holiday, the continued surge in the hong kong stock market may push a shares to rise further after the holiday. due to the strong performance of brokerage firms and semiconductor stocks in the hong kong stock market, some funds are worried that there may be a "unavailable" situation on the first day of trading after the holiday.

4. the market value of the hong kong stock market has climbed to hk$39.4 trillion, with the average daily turnover from september to this friday being approximately hk$192 billion.

entering the fourth quarter of 2024, the overall market sentiment has improved significantly. the hang seng index has climbed to a high of about two and a half years, with a cumulative increase of more than 5,600 points in the past 15 days, an increase of 33%.

the value of the hong kong stock market also climbed to hk$39.4 trillion. taking mandatory provident fund investment as an example, a research institution reported that the outstanding performance of hong kong stocks in september caused the overall return of mandatory provident fund funds to exceed 7% in the third quarter, which was the best quarter in the past two years.

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