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produced by "investment observation" of ifeng.com finance

recently, chinese assets have exploded across the board, and a-shares have staged an epic surge. after the market became hot, investors also rushed to enter the market. the shanghai stock exchange system was down for a while, and the number of securities firms opening accounts surged.

on the internet, many experts continue to shout that "the bull market is coming". countless stock investors shout, "if you don't speculate, you will feel like you have missed 100 million." there are also people who sell houses, land, and jade to speculate in stocks. it seems that everyone is not willing to miss this possible opportunity. opportunities for wealth growth.

at the moment, the topic that people are most concerned about is "how long can this bull market last?" this article combs through the research reports of multiple brokerages and looks forward to the future trend of a-shares.

01. how long will this bull market last?

according to the southwest securities research report, the current a-share market is somewhat comparable to july 2014. first of all, before july 2014 and september 2024, a-shares experienced a correction that lasted about three years. secondly, the causes behind the continued correction in the market are relatively similar, including economic adjustments brought about by active suppression of real estate and overcapacity. finally, the reasons for the start of the market are also similar: two consecutive targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts in april and june 2014, and at the same time in july the central bank confirmed the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of psl to the china development bank, both indicating the tendency of management policies to stimulate social demand. .

southwest securities stated that after reviewing the bottom of the same level in may 1999, july 2005, january 2009, july 2014, and february 2019 and counting the strength of the first-stage fundraising market, it was found that a-shares were positive we are in the first stage of the big market. compared with the past, the market in late september still has room for further interpretation.

according to the research report of huafu securities, in order to see the boosting effect of current policies on the market, they made a horizontal comparison of the policies and economic indicators of the four bull markets in china and japan.

huafu securities stated that, similar to japan, my country has also responded very positively on the policy side. at the same time, my country's current economic growth rate is similar to japan's in 1990, but much higher than the average growth rate from 1990 to 2003. the current urbanization rate is lower than japan's in the 1990s, which is a plus. at the same time, my country's current population has begun to grow negatively, and this macro condition is slightly weaker than japan's.

considering that japan was stimulated by similar policies that year, the index achieved an increase of at least 34% in the four bull markets, and the increase lasted for more than 6 months, with the longest being as long as 18 months. huafu securities believes that the current a-share bull market is far from over. the current rise in the market has a very high probability of continuation. it is expected to fluctuate and correct after the sharp rise, but the overall rising process will last for a longer time.

a research report from guojin securities believes that this round of market conditions may be a "rebound" rather than a "reversal" and will last for about one quarter.

02. this type of stock is the first beneficiary in the early stages of the bull market.

according to a research report by datong securities, a review of past bull markets found that in the early stages of the market, highly elastic and policy dividend sectors had more obvious advantages. among them, non-bank finance has high elasticity and is often the first beneficiary in the early stages of a bull market; in addition, this round of policies is directly aimed at household consumption, and large consumption has become a direct beneficiary sector and is expected to continue to benefit. in the mid-term of the market, the trend is optimistic about growth stocks and continued policy opportunities. among them, growth stocks mostly outperformed the market in the middle of the historical bull market; and new productivity, a relatively hot policy theme in the early stage, is still continuing to develop. the main direction is technological growth, and the advantages of technological growth in the mid-term are obvious; in addition, it can be staged. pay attention to the concept of mergers, acquisitions and restructuring triggered by events. in the later stage of the market, the main line is weak. it is recommended that investors pay more attention to market risks and enhance the diversity of asset allocation.

galaxy securities believes that, first, it is optimistic about consumption and growth that were oversold in the early stage and had low valuations. among them, the consumer sector may also benefit from the consumption-promoting policies and "old-for-new" policies in the fourth quarter. second, be optimistic about the financial and real estate sectors with more favorable policies. the financial sector, on the one hand, is expected to benefit from the new monetary policy tools created by the central bank on september 24. on the other hand, finance is a key area of ​​mergers and acquisitions and restructuring in the future. after the politburo meeting, real estate policies were further optimized, which is expected to drive the real estate market to stop falling and rebound. third, continue to be optimistic about dividend stocks with strong hedging properties. before the macroeconomic data trend improves and before the results of the u.s. election are released, investors' risk appetite is expected to remain low overall, so they will continue to invest in high-dividend dividend stocks.

southwest securities believes that based on the rise and fall of various industries from september 24 to 30 and the rsi of each industry on september 30, it is recommended to pay attention to the "relatively low growth" + "relatively low rsi" utilities, banks, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals plate.

references:

"learn from your neighbors: how long will this a-share bull market last?" 》, huafu securities

"updated views on current a-shares", southwest securities

"how to do a-shares: grasp the market rhythm - a-share market interpretation and analysis", datong securities

"october a-share strategy: key recommendations for mid-cap growth", china international finance securities

"a-share investment outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024: coordinated policy efforts and improved market expectations", galaxy securities