what is israel’s next goal as the situation in the middle east suddenly escalates? expert analysis→
2024-10-06
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the israeli military is currently conducting "limited ground operations" against hezbollah targets in lebanon. in ground attack and defense, what are the advantages of hezbollah and israel? what are israel’s next goals? let’s take a look at the analysis and interpretation by liao baizhi, director of the middle east institute of the china institute of contemporary international relations.
what are the advantages of using ground operations against lebanon?
liao baizhi, director of the middle east institute of the china institute of contemporary international relations: in the past year, lebanese hezbollah and israel have been attacking each other almost every day, but mainly air strikes. hezbollah probably fired tens of thousands of rockets at israel, but most of them were intercepted. israel has launched tens of thousands of attacks against hezbollah, basically in a state of suppression. everyone has seen the so-called intelligence superiority in the past two days. israel's all-pervasive penetration capabilities continue to carry out precise strikes on top leaders of hezbollah.
liao baizhi, director of the middle east institute of the china institute of contemporary international relations: as for hezbollah, its ground strength is stronger. first, because this is the result of hezbollah's careful preparation. since the lebanese-israeli border is 121 kilometers long, hezbollah has always regarded israel as its biggest enemy. in the past many years, many military facilities, including underground bunkers, tunnels, etc., have been built on the temporary border between lebanon and israel, and careful preparations have been made. second, hezbollah soldiers have sufficient combat experience, not only in the long-term struggle against israel, but also in the syrian civil war, and may have received training from iran. in addition, it also has a relatively loose command system. although its high-level officials have been hit recently, its relatively independent and loose system has considerable actual combat power even without high-level officials. third, its will to fight. because high-level officials have been beaten one after another, hezbollah is now in a state of risking death and surviving.
liao baizhi, director of the middle east institute of the china institute of contemporary international relations: as for what will happen next for israel, i think it is too early to draw a conclusion, because after all, this is a major strategy of israel, and its attack on hezbollah and subsequent when taking action, you will be mentally prepared. because hezbollah has been regarded by israel as the biggest threat for many years, israel has deployed 60% of its troops on the northern border. after the war in gaza came to an end, israel's strategic focus began to shift northward, and the next focus must be hezbollah, so this is just the beginning of the ground offensive, and now it is a contact, nothing more.
what will be the target of israel's "major retaliation"?
israel is planning how to retaliate against iran's missile attack. what are the options before israel now? how likely is a "full-blown conflict" to occur?
liao baizhi, director of the middle east institute of the china institute of contemporary international relations: there are many options on israel’s table now, and israel basically takes the initiative, including iran’s oil fields, some important iranian livelihood facilities, some iranian military facilities, and even including some nuclear experts and high-level officials may be included in the scope of the attack. as for whether israel will take more dangerous actions, as the media said, whether it will attack iran's nuclear facilities, i think this really needs the support of the united states, because most of the nuclear facilities are deep underground. , without u.s. intelligence support and weapons support, israel would really have to think twice before acting. but no matter what, i believe that israel has an arrow on the string now, and it must fight. in terms of intensity, the israelis believe that i cannot react based on the results of iran's attack on me, but i must look at iran's intention to fight back. therefore, it believed that the counterattack in april was too weak. this time, iran's counterattack showed everyone in israel that its level of deterrence may not be as obvious as imagined, so it believes that iran may be a powerful foreign country. now there is a saying in israel, "should we take this opportunity to further increase the intensity of the attack on this place?" so no matter what we say now, israel is bound to fight iran. the only suspense now is actually when, where and in what form to fight.
liao baizhi, director of the middle east institute of the china institute of contemporary international relations: the middle east is very dangerous now and is closer to a full-scale war than ever before. i believe that the greatest initiative in this war lies in the hands of israel. since the palestinian-israeli conflict broke out more than a year ago, all relevant parties except israel are trying their best to avoid war. only israel is being aggressive. the fundamental reason is that after the palestinian-israeli conflict, israel's military deterrence strategy has completely disappeared. so the single most important thing israel faces now is how to rebuild this military deterrence. it now faces a multi-front battle, a local battle, and a long-term battle. so how to break the situation? therefore, it must defeat them one by one. after defeating hamas, it will then attack hezbollah and the next enemy. therefore, it wants to fight in other countries instead of fighting at home. then it strives for a quick victory, so it wants to fight. now all the initiative lies with israel.
