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the "a-share assets" of the hong kong stock exchange were snapped up, and three etfs doubled in a single week! what do foreign investors think of china?

2024-10-05

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if you can't buy a-shares, hong kong stock etfs that track the a-share index have become the strongest substitute.

throughout the holidays, hong kong stock etfs became a playground for funds. hong kong stock etfs tracking the science and technology innovation board once soared to 234% during the session. high gains also concealed high risks. the drop in premiums disappeared, reminding dan bin of "the plunge after the surge." .

three hong kong stock etfs doubled their weekly gains

hong kong stocks were closed for only one day on october 1, continuing their strongest rebound. it only took five trading days for many indexes to regain their lost ground during the year. taking the pharmaceutical sector as an example, the hang seng hong kong-listed biotechnology index rose 24.9% in the past five days, and the year-to-date return rate turned positive to 5.78%. the hang seng health care return rate during the same period was 23.66%. , the return rate during the year was 2.98%. under the general rising market, the returns of major hong kong stock indexes almost all closed positive during the year.

hong kong stock etfs, which had not had a high presence before, experienced a wave of presence during the national day holiday.

on the morning of the 2nd, the csop science and technology innovation board 50 index etf surged 234.3%. the fund company issued an emergency risk warning during the session, stating that there were trading risks such as large premiums in the secondary market. the increase fell back to 29% before the market closed. on that day, there were still funds such as boshi kechuang 50 etf and xl erbo shizhong entrepreneurship etf, which closed with gains of 106.19% and 60.22%.

on the 3rd, hong kong stocks pulled back slightly, etfs became slightly calmer, and many etfs pulled back. on the 4th, hong kong stocks rose strongly again, and the semiconductor sector exploded. etfs such as bosera science and technology 50-retf and gx china semiconductor etf rose by 28.83% and 12.44% respectively.

judging from the gains and losses in the past five days, etfs tracking the a-share index have been among the top gainers. among them, xl erbo shizhong entrepreneurship etf, bosera kechuang 50 etf, and bosera kechuang 50-retf have doubled in the past five trading days, reaching increases of 159.73%, 114.86%, and 101 and 82% respectively. in addition, there are 8 etfs including the southern science and technology innovation board 50 etf, xl 2 southern shanghai and shenzhen 3 etf, and pp science and technology innovation etf, which have increased by more than 50%.

different from mainland etfs, there are more types of hong kong stock etfs, including leveraged, inverse and other products. take the xl erbo shizhong venture etf as an example. its full name is boshi china gem index daily leverage (2x). according to boshi international, this product is the first china gem leveraged product in hong kong. this product aims to use a swap-based synthetic simulation strategy, that is, buying this product can achieve a positive 2x return on tracking the daily performance of the target index.

as for the reason for the surge in this product, boshi international commentary pointed out that favorable macroeconomic policies have always been the main reason. after the central bank started to cut interest rates and reserve requirements, the politburo meeting announced that it would increase fiscal adjustments and emphasized the need to promote real estate to "stop falling and return to stability." subsequently, the people's bank of china issued an announcement announcing a batch reduction in deposits and loans for first and second homes. interest rates, while first-tier cities such as shanghai, guangzhou, and shenzhen have relaxed purchase restriction policies.

the above combination of policies has significantly improved investor market sentiment and greatly increased investors' risk appetite, while the policy's encouragement of patient capital will help promote long-term funds to enter emerging industries and high-tech sectors. according to recent high-frequency data compiled by brokerages, the marginal demand for terminals such as semiconductors and consumer electronics has improved, and the manufacturing and new productivity-related technology sectors with better supply patterns have also achieved positive net profit growth for the past two consecutive quarters.

boshi international also believes that with the arrival of the disclosure of the third quarterly report, the repair of performance coupled with the improvement of investor preferences is expected to promote the valuation restoration of the gem and science and technology innovation board, which have been at the bottom of valuations for a long time, and it is recommended to pay attention.

etfs have surged. on the one hand, funds continue to buy, and on the other hand, the net value is also increasing. the scale of related etfs has also reached new highs. on october 2, the asset management scale of csop hang seng technology index etf exceeded hk$40 billion; on the 4th, china asset management hong kong said that the scale of its chinaamc hang seng index esgetf exceeded 10 billion.

however, some people in the industry believe thatwhen a-shares have not opened, individual hong kong stock etfs tracking a-shares have risen too high. investors need to pay attention to risks such as premiums and cooling sentiment.

chinese assets are being bought

one rise can relieve a thousand sorrows. since the federal reserve cut interest rates, overseas funds have returned significantly to hong kong stocks. with domestic monetary policies exceeding expectations, a-shares and hong kong stocks have surged. during the national day holiday, hong kong stocks were closed for only one day. throughout the holiday, hong kong stocks attracted the attention of global investors. although it pulled back one day, it quickly recovered its losses.

as of the close of trading on october 4, during the a-share market break, judging from global market changes, chinese assets are continuing to be bought. in comparison, the s&p 500 index and the nasdaq 100 index rose by 0.23% and 0.15% respectively in the us stock market, while the nasdaq china golden dragon index rose by 11.54% in the range; the ftse china 3x long etf rose by nearly 34%. in terms of hong kong stocks, the hang seng index rose by 7.55%, and the dividend assets of central enterprises led the increase. the dividends of central enterprises under the hong kong stock connect surged by 12.64%.

overseas investment institutions are also keeping a close eye on chinese assets. throughout the holidays, conference calls, research reports, and trading desk information from domestic and foreign institutions continued to emerge.

nomura securities pointed out in a research report on october 2 that this policy incentive was quite successful, and believed that the government will definitely have a series of fiscal measures and other supportive policies in the future. however, nomura also reminded that individual investors, especially those who are too young to have experienced the previous painful rise and fall, are eager to open accounts for fear of missing out on what seems to be a once-in-a-lifetime rebound. after enjoying the initial euphoria, investors may want to focus on the worst-case scenarios.

however, more foreign institutions have given relatively optimistic views. morgan stanley's short-term view pointed out that market sentiment towards china has changed in the past week, and positions have also been adjusted marginally, but there is still room for further adjustments. retail investors of late have primarily come in the form of broad beta exposure through etfs, rather than individual stocks. ctas have purchased an estimated more than $15 billion in chinese stocks in the past two weeks. meanwhile, morgan stanley noted that demand for call options hit an all-time high.

however, it is worth noting that hedge funds are also buying chinese stocks, but most of the demand comes from accounts in the asia-pacific region, and u.s. accounts are still more or less on the sidelines.

the bank of america securities trading desk responded to 8 questions from customers and gave its views on recent a-shares and hong kong stocks. first of all, regarding whether chinese assets are underweighted, bank of america securities believes that in the past two weeks, long-term investors have bought a net 3.4 billion, which is similar to the amount purchased during the previous rebound after the epidemic, but the time is much faster. it is difficult to quantify positions without obtaining mutual fund holding data in september and october, but judging from transaction flow, the current positions allocated to chinese assets are quite full.

when it comes to whether to buy a shares or hong kong stocks now, bank of america securities believes that the current forward-looking price-earnings ratio of hong kong stocks is close to 10 times. the momentum-driven rebound exceeds expectations, but the risk and return are not very attractive; if the animal spirits of market participants are if the similarity between the emergence and the bull market from 2014 to 2015 is correct, the valuation of a shares may be significantly revalued compared to h shares.

“although foreign capital’s positions in h-shares have increased rapidly, domestic retail investment has just begun. on september 30, the transaction volume of margin trading and securities lending accounted for more than 10% of the total transaction volume, but it was still far lower than the 18% in 2014 ." bofa securities pointed out.