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before the u.s. stock market opened on friday (october 4), data released by the u.s. bureau of labor statistics showed that the number of non-agricultural employment in the united states increased by 254,000 in september, the largest increase in six months, far exceeding the market’s previous expectations. 140,000 people.

in addition, the data for july was revised upward from 89,000 to 144,000; for august, it was revised from 142,000 to 159,000. the report also showed that the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.2% to 4.1% in september, and average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 4% year-on-year, higher than market expectations of 0.3% and 3.8% respectively.

unemployment rate & changes in non-agricultural sector employment

cme group's "fed watch" tool shows that after the report was released, the market expected that the probability of the bank cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in november rose to 99.1%, and the other 0.9% was the probability of not cutting interest rates. before the report, the probability of a 25 basis point and 50 basis point interest rate cut was "70 to 30".

nick timiraos, a reporter known as the "new federal reserve news agency" said on social mediathis is a very strong jobs report。

allianz consultant el-erian says jobs report reminds people'inflation has not gone away', the fed needs to refocus on suppressing prices, "if you look at it from the outside, this is a strong labor market in the late cycle."

el-erian told the media, “what this means for the fed iswork harder to control labor market pressures.for the market, this weakened previous expectations that the fed would cut interest rates too aggressively. "

former u.s. treasury secretary summers posted:the fed’s “50 basis points cut in september” was a mistake (although the consequences are not very serious). given these data, both a "no landing" and a "hard landing" are risks that the fed must consider.

nominal wage growth remains well above pre-covid levels and does not appear to be decelerating, summers wrote. “today’s jobs report confirms our suspicion that we are in a higher neutral rate environment with authorities cutting interest rates,” summers wrote. need to be cautious.”

meanwhile, chicago fed president goolsbee, a "dovish" fed official, praised the jobs report, warning against placing too much faith in one month's data, adding that there was a risk that inflation would fall below the central bank's 2% target.

goolsby said, "if you look at expectations, there are signs that inflation may be below the 2% target, and we hope that the outside world will take notice." when it comes to the neutral rate, "it's hard to be sure. tell me how much it is. in my opinion, it is definitely higher than the zero interest rate before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic.”