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during the holidays, the a-share market was closed, hong kong stocks surged, real estate stocks and brokerage stocks continued to surge, and foreign investors aggressively bought and increased their holdings of chinese assets. many investors are looking forward to the opening of a-shares after the holiday.

it is worth noting that as a-shares and hong kong stocks surged, private equity tycoon dan bin fell into a whirlpool of public opinion due to his repeated comments on the market. many investors criticized dan bin on social platforms, attracting market attention.

dan bin was attacked

in the past two years, private equity tycoon dan bin has begun to invest heavily in u.s. stocks and has made considerable gains. in particular, nvidia, which is heavily held, has caused the net value of some of its products that invest in u.s. stocks to soar to record highs.

recently, as a-shares and hong kong stocks have experienced epic surges, dan bin, who has a heavy position in us stocks, has been angrily criticized by netizens.

on september 30, the last trading day before the a-share holiday, a-shares and hong kong stocks were in full swing, with major indexes soaring across the board. the transaction volume in the two cities exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, a record high. as of the close, the shanghai composite index surged 8.06%, the shenzhen component index surged 10.67%, and the gem index surged 15.36%.

after the market closed that day, private equity tycoon dan bin posted on weibo, "some colleagues had a good harvest today. fuhong earned the most. they heavily invested in a new stock with no price limit. the profit in one day was astonishing. their profit in a few days has increased from this year." the losses even exceeded my annual u.s. stock gains. judging from the performance of oriental harbor's young fund managers, perhaps in just a few days, the fund i am responsible for at oriental harbor will lose its position as this year's tens of billions private equity champion. ”

surprisingly, dan bin's remarks did not receive likes, but caused huge controversy.

some fans believe that dan bin is a value investor known to the entire market, and that advocating and speculating on new stocks in this way seems to be contrary to the concept of value investing. "although i don't understand the rules of the fund, i still trade new stocks heavily. i can't understand it, and i have reservations." "the fund's single investment in new stocks is not worthy of praise." "value investing has become a deaf ear."...

it is worth mentioning that dan bin was also told by investors that he hopes you will be an upright chinese man! in response to this, dan bin responded that he loves his motherland, his alma mater, and his hometown, and has donated 160 million yuan of love. i suggest you follow my example and donate 160 million yuan to the land of china to express your patriotism! no, 10 million will do! please do not express your patriotism with your mouth. please be a caring and upright chinese.

in addition, he was ridiculed for being a sports student and would eventually suffer the consequences of being uneducated. in response to this, dan bin responded, i am uneducated. i donated 160 million to show love, and you should learn from me.

two major private equity views diverge

recently, the a-share market was closed and hong kong stocks surged.

regarding the hot market, dan bin issued an article saying, "such a sharp rise will inevitably lead to a sharp fall. if you are trapped again this time, all the forces that should be mobilized will be mobilized, and the unwinding will be far away...", "it's enough to satisfy you. there is no shop like this after passing this village..."

most investors didn't buy dan bin's warning about a sharp rise followed by a sharp fall.

some investors believe that dan bin, who has a heavy position in u.s. stocks, is sour and has shorted a-shares and hong kong stocks. after a few days of skyrocketing, the valuation is still more cost-effective than u.s. stocks. “it’s 3300 now, so it’s not a big risk”, “it’s been down for so long, and it’s gone short after it’s been up for a few days, it’s inappropriate to warn of risks too early”, “only nvidia is allowed to rise, ah stocks are not allowed to light up”, “seven sisters of the us stock market” when the market value is equivalent to full a, are you rational? you still say that nvidia will increase by 5 times?”...

lin yuan, another private equity tycoon, has a completely different view than dan bin.

recently, lin yuan, chairman of linyuan investment, said in a live broadcast that although the market has risen a lot, there is no bubble and many assets are still very cheap. it’s still time to bend over and pick up money. the market has the possibility for investors to earn n times at any time.

lin yuan believes that the real bull market has not yet begun. "the characteristic of a bull market is that most people are going to start making money. at least 45% of people are starting to make money. that is the characteristic of a bull market. above 4,500 points is the starting point of a bull market."

it is worth noting that lin yuan also suggested that investors should be braver. although it is impossible to tell whether the market will rise or fall in the short term, assets are very cheap. lin yuan is still optimistic about mouth-related industries, because mouth-related industries have a shelf life, can easily correct excess production capacity, and are deterministically aging.

however, investors need to remain rational under the impact of the wealth effect of the epic surge in a-shares and hong kong stocks.

judging from past data, many investors not only failed to make money during the bull market, but also suffered heavy losses. therefore, for investors, the first thing is to stay away from leverage, and the second thing is not to be dazzled by the rise, to invest rationally, and not to chase the rise and kill the fall, and switch back and forth in the market fluctuations, resulting in rapid loss of money.

institutions: short-term shock, bullish in the medium term

regarding the market trend of a-shares after the holiday, many institutions are unanimously bullish.

zhang yidong of industrial securities said in a research report that the recent market prices of china's a-shares and hong kong stocks can be described as "a boat has passed a thousand mountains". after experiencing a short-squeeze rebound at the end of september, the growth rate of china's stock market, especially china's hong kong stocks, in 2024 has led the world. during the rise in october, there may be disturbances such as the u.s. election and european and american stock market shocks, which may lead to short-term profit taking.

zhang yidong believes that in the short to medium term, we must abandon bear market thinking and strengthen bullish thinking. the shock in october was more about gathering momentum and rushing through the sand. the shock was to find more sustainable and reversible mainline opportunities.

"there is no limit to the medium-term market space and time, because the financial momentum is still flowing. just as we predicted in may, the climax of resonance inflows of domestic and foreign capital began to appear in the third quarter. after the recent rise in hong kong stocks, there is still further progress the repair space should be at least close to the level in january 2023," zhang yidong said.

citic securities research predicts that incremental policies will be stepped up, and the current bottoming process of a-shares with improved pricing efficiency is expected to accelerate. at present, the two main lines of dividends and overseas exports are still the bottom positions, and after the market turning point occurs, it will turn to the main lines of high-quality growth and domestic demand. . hong kong stocks, whose prices have fully reflected pessimistic expectations, are expected to rebound and become a monthly recovery trend, with growth styles likely to continue to outperform.

chen guo of citic construction investment strategy believes that the hong kong stock market cycle is currently showing a structural upward trend. the profit cycle recovery of the information technology and consumer discretionary sectors is independent of domestic fundamentals and widens the gap with other sectors; valuations continue to bottom out; liquidity has entered a higher level in the cycle. we believe that the hong kong stock technology and internet sectors have significantly recovered in terms of profitability, benefited from the wave of dividend buybacks in terms of valuation, and benefited from the favor of foreign capital in terms of liquidity, so they are the most worthy of attention. in addition, the dividend sector still provides value for money.