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in october, the situation in the donetsk region in southern ukraine was not optimistic. it all started with the fall of ugladal, and the entire region was on the verge of collapse,most of southern donetsk will fall soon!

southdonetsk

after the fall of ugradal (u), the ukrainian army tried to establish new defenses in the south of donetsk. on the map, southern ukraine's defenses may look good, but the reality is very poor.

commanders can't just draw a line on the map and magically create a line of defense.

to the north, there were two strong defensive lines facing south: one west of the kurakhov reservoir and the other between the first reservoir and selidov (s). kulakhov was also heavily defended.

now, the ukrainian army is trying to establish two new lines of defense in the south:

the first line is zolota nova (zn) - novoukrainka (nu) - bogoyavlenka - katerynivka (k).

the second line is velyka novosilka (vn) - shakhtars'ke (s2) - uspenivka (u2) - kurakhove.

the first line was just to slow down the russian army and allow the ukrainian army to build some defenses on the second line.

there are two main problems for the ukrainian army:

first, there was no preparation in advance. many people in the ukrainian military media are dissatisfied that fortifications were not built before.

without proper fortifications, more manpower is needed, but the ukrainian army is also seriously short of manpower. especially when the ukrainian army suffered heavy casualties while defending ugradal. this makes it unlikely that the ukrainian army can stop the russian advance on these two lines.

if the ukrainian army's pokrovsk (red army city) front line is held, the ukrainian army may be able to prevent russia from advancing northward along the kulakhov line of defense in the west.

however, after the ukrainian defense collapsed first in the east of pokrovsk and now in the south, kulakhov and the ukrainian defense line facing the south were in danger of being attacked from behind.

the ukrainian army is now located 5-6 kilometers north of the kurakhov reservoir and 1-5 kilometers away from the ukrainian army's first line of defense in the south.

in the coming week, russian troops may arrive at these two places. this would allow russian forces to control kurakhov from the high ground north of the reservoir. at the same time, in gornik and its surrounding areas, as many as 5,000 ukrainian soldiers will be surrounded or forced to flee westward under russian bombing.

russian troops will continue to close the gap in the kulakhov dam throughout the rest of october, especially if the weather remains good.

the weather forecast for kulakhov for the next 10 days shows that the weather will continue to maintain good summer weather, and the weather conditions will be good for the russian offensive.

the russian army may not be able to completely close the kulakhov pocket by the end of october, but it is possible to achieve this goal in november.

this looming threat will once again force the ukrainian high command to make the difficult decision of retreating or risking encirclement.

tsukino town

however, on the kulakhov front line, the russian army made very smooth progress, forming encirclements one after another!

reliable reports indicate that the russian army continues to advance in the town of tsukino. it is reported that it has occupied nearly half of the town and will soon fall into the hands of the russian army.

the russian army began to attack the town from three directions. the main forces were concentrated along the railway line and rushed towards the railway station. fighting was reported to be ongoing.

there was news that the entire area east of the railway station had fallen into russian hands, and that most of the town had fallen.

at the same time, the russian army also attacked the southern part of tsukino town and probably occupied positions in the southern residential area. meanwhile, new reports say that the salient formed in the eastern part of the town has been largely eliminated and that russian troops now appear to be fighting in the eastern residential area after occupying the three-story building.

the current situation of the ukrainian army is very dangerous. in the next few days, the russian army is likely to advance to the west side of the railway line. this would pave the way for future attacks to the south, bypassing hernik.

russian troops were also reported to be advancing north of the town of tsukino along tree lines, possibly in an effort to bypass the northeastern part of the town.

hernik

according to reliable sources, russian troops continue to bypass the fortress of khrnik and advance in the direction of izmelivka.

the russians appear to have decided to continue their momentum south of the st. basil mine rather than consolidate control of the position and may have captured the treeline leading to izmelivka.

according to reports, the russian army is now using small groups of infantry to test the ukrainian defenses on the northern outskirts of izmelivka. in the coming days, russian forces are likely to advance toward khrnik from the west while launching attacks from its rear to encircle the town.

zaporizhia

the russian army may have restarted offensive operations in western zaporozhye oblast. it is reported that it has occupied multiple tree line positions and advanced about 2.8 kilometers.

the attacks took place in the direction of the village of mala tokmachka. if true, this development also means that russian forces have captured almost the entire ridgeline extending from verbove.

with the breakthrough in the direction of south donetsk, zaporozhye's flanks were threatened by the russian army, and the war situation began to loosen.