experienced the a-share "crazy 9·30"
2024-10-03
한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina
"it is strongly recommended not to take a holiday during the national day. i just want to go to work!" on the morning of september 30, dazhang (pseudonym) took the subway to attend the company's team building in futian central district, shenzhen. he was amused by the jokes on his mobile phone.
that day is the last working day before the national day holiday and the last trading day before the a-share holiday. the epic rise in the stock market last week (september 23-september 27) excited countless investors, including da zhang, and set off a nationwide craze for talking about stocks.
stimulated by a combination of unconventional policies, a-shares and hong kong stocks experienced a collective surge last week, leading the world. among them, the shanghai composite index rose 12.81%, the shenzhen composite component index rose 17.83%, and the hang seng index rose 13%. the trading volume of shanghai and shenzhen stock markets and hong kong stock market also hit a record high, and the market enthusiasm has been rare for many years.
the super wealth effect ignited market enthusiasm, and the number of stock market account openings surged. on the morning of the 29th, the shanghai stock exchange launched bidding, comprehensive business and other platform-related business tests. the bidding trading system received a total of 270 million orders, which was twice the historical peak. in order to meet the surge in account opening and review needs of securities firms, china securities depository and clearing co., ltd. temporarily opened on weekends for the first time to provide a production service environment. many brokerages are also urgently expanding and upgrading network broadband and host resources.
on the evening of the 29th, the central bank and the state administration of financial supervision issued four policies to stabilize real estate, including guiding banks to lower existing mortgage interest rates, unifying the minimum down payment ratio for mortgages to 15%, extending the period of some real estate financial policy documents, and optimizing affordable housing refinancing policies. . immediately afterwards, shanghai, guangzhou, and shenzhen released implementation plans overnight, and the property market entered a period of unprecedented policy easing. china real estate news commented, calling it "an exciting night for the property market."
in china, the prosperity of the stock market and the real estate market have always been highly correlated. if the real estate market is booming, it is difficult for the stock market to follow suit. with the atmosphere heightened to this point, da zhang and countless investors had the same premonition: there is a high probability that there will be another storm on the 30th.
"explosion" start
before the opening of the new trading day, the atmosphere continues to build. the messages pushed by his mobile phone made da zhang both excited and nervous.
on the same day, the economic daily published an article saying that the central bank had previously stated that it would create new monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market. against the background of relatively sluggish stock market performance, the introduction of structural monetary policy tools to support the capital market is expected to inject strong momentum and vitality into the market.
according to securities media reports, institutional investors are currently doing their best to be bullish on the a-share market. the latest survey data from private equity investment network shows that during the upcoming national day holiday, nearly 70% of private equity investors will hold heavy or full positions to celebrate the holiday. the media quoted industry insiders as saying that with the release of positive policy signals beyond expectations, market sentiment is expected to continue to improve, and a-shares may continue to rebound.
overseas, wall street's enthusiasm for chinese assets is heating up rapidly. statistics show that from september 23 to 27, the asset size of many overseas-listed chinese etfs such as kweb, fxi, and mchi surged, reaching a new high, and the net inflow of funds also hit a new high in the past year or even three years.
news of various commercial banks’ implementation plans to adjust existing mortgage interest rates in batches also came intensively. amidst the enthusiastic applause, the time is getting closer and closer to 9:30 am beijing time - the time when a-shares open.
around 8:50, a message was sent to the mobile phone: affected by factors such as the sharp rise in the yen exchange rate in the foreign exchange market, the nikkei 225 index fell by more than 4.5% in early trading that day. da zhang's heart sank.
at 9:00, the ftse china a50 index futures opened higher after closing down 1.1% on the previous trading day, and then turned lower. but it soon turned higher, with the increase expanding to 1% at 9:06. the big heart relaxed a little.
a few minutes later, a push message showed that the state post bureau stated that as of september 29, the national express delivery business revenue exceeded 1 trillion yuan this year. since 2021, the time to exceed the trillion mark has been shortened year by year. this is good news, da zhang thought.
cctv news: the central meteorological observatory predicts that from september 30 to october 1, a strong cold air will continue to move eastward and southward, affecting most of the central and eastern regions, bringing significant cooling. but the stock exchange wechat group where dazhang belongs is in full swing.
around 9:21, the hong kong stock bidding results showed that the hang seng index rose 2.63% and the hang seng technology index rose 4.38%. da zhang's eyes lit up. but the following news was that some brokerage users reported that the bank-securities transfer function was stuck and unable to transfer funds to their securities accounts. da zhang prays that the brokerage trading system will not go as wrong as last week.
the market officially opened at 9:30, and cbn ai news popped up on the phone: the shanghai composite index rose 3.47%, the shenzhen component index rose 4.58%, the gem index rose 5.77%, and the csi 300 rose 3.86%. in terms of hong kong stocks, the hang seng index opened up nearly 3%, and the hang seng technology index rose 5%.
the group of stock traders where da zhang belongs was completely excited. there was cheering in the office, and everyone was shouting to cover or increase their positions.
almost at the same time as the stock market opened, news came from the national bureau of statistics: the manufacturing purchasing managers index (pmi) in september was 49.8%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month; the comprehensive pmi output index was 50.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. percentage point. the national bureau of statistics stated that this shows that my country's economic prosperity level has generally recovered, manufacturing production activities have accelerated, and the prosperity level has improved.
dazhang posted two words in the stock trading group: stable.
"together at a new high"
the market situation that day made dazhang understand for the first time why the stock market with a collective sharp rise in stocks is called a "bull market". that kind of overwhelming impact is like the feeling of a herd of cattle hooves.
only 2 minutes after the opening, the shanghai composite index rose by 5%, the shenzhen composite index rose by 6.4%, the chinext index rose by 7.73%, and 5,058 stocks rose in the two cities.
five minutes after the opening, the shanghai composite index rose 5.72%, the shenzhen composite index rose 7.31%, and the chinext index rose to 9%. securities, liquor, real estate, software and other directions were the top gainers. nearly 500 stocks in the market rose by more than 9%, and more than 160 stocks rose by more than 11%.
at this time, the ftse china a50 index futures rose by more than 3% during the day. hong kong stocks surged simultaneously, with brokerage stocks and mainland property stocks leading the gains. leading brokerage guotai junan international (01788.hk) rose more than 30%.
around 9:43, the transaction volume in shanghai and shenzhen stock markets exceeded 500 billion yuan, and the volume exceeded 175 billion yuan compared with the same time on the previous trading day.
however, just before and after this, the ftse china a50 index futures, which had previously risen by more than 3%, suddenly turned negative, and a hint of worry emerged in da zhang's mind. he glanced at the latest push message on his phone: the israel defense forces stated that it would launch a new attack on dozens of hezbollah targets in lebanon in the early morning of september 30, local time.
at this moment, apart from the chinese market, the performance of many other asia-pacific markets is actually not good: the nikkei 225 index fell by more than 4%, and the korean composite index and the philippine stock index both fell by more than 1%. indian stocks, which opened later, also saw a significant correction. some analysts believe that there are certainly reasons for the decline in peripheral markets, and the diversion effect of a-shares is also one of the reasons.
subsequently, there was news that some brokerage trading systems were experiencing delays in trading information. some brokerages responded that the order was too large, causing the trading software to crash, and investors could only temporarily place orders over the phone. fortunately, the fault was quickly eliminated.
at around 9:53, the shanghai composite index fell back to 3153.70 points, which was also the lowest point throughout the day. after that, a surge of energy that penetrated the rainbow unfolded rapidly amidst the commotion of surprise, joy, fear, hesitation and regret.
around 10:05, dazhang saw an exciting number pop up on the trading software: 1 trillion yuan! this is the transaction amount reached by the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets in less than 35 minutes, setting a new record for the fastest one-trillion-breaking transaction in history.
at the same time, ftse china a50 index futures also surged again. according to foreign exchange market news, the us dollar against the offshore rmb broke through the 6.9900 yuan mark, and was last at 6.9903 yuan, up 0.13% on the day; the us dollar against the onshore rmb was last at 7.0155 yuan, up 0.07% on the day.
news came from the state administration of foreign exchange that the bureau has conveyed and learned the spirit of the political bureau meeting of the central committee on september 26, studied and deployed implementation measures, and will step up efforts to launch incremental policies to further increase the support of foreign exchange management policies for the real economy. , and promote the continued recovery of the economy.
at 10:30, one hour after the market opened, the transaction volume of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets reached 1.26 trillion yuan, exceeding 560 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day. etfs have experienced strong growth, with nearly 20 etfs having a turnover of over 1 billion yuan in the market. at the same time, news showed that the bse 50 index also surged by more than 13%, with a single-day increase hitting a record high, and there was a rare spectacle of multiple stocks closing their daily limits.
by around 10:53, the gem index's gain expanded to 10%, the shanghai composite index rose by 4.86%, the shenzhen composite index rose by 7.44%, and 5,043 stocks rose in the two cities. the gem index has risen by more than 35% in the past five trading days.
around 11:00, the chinext index rose to 11%, the shenzhen component index rose by 8.1%, the shanghai composite index rose by 5.49%, and the science and technology innovation 50 index rose by more than 12%, setting a record. the beijing stock exchange 50 index also continued to hit new highs with an increase of more than 15%, and all stocks on the beijing stock exchange were in the red. the transaction volume of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, and the volume exceeded 700 billion yuan compared with the same period on the previous trading day.
the four major stock index futures of china financial exchange continued to rise. csi 1000 stock index futures (im) rose more than 8%, hitting a new high since january this year. csi 500 stock index futures (ic) rose nearly 7%, csi 300 stock index futures (if) rose more than 5%, and sse 50 stock index futures rose more than 3%.
amid the hot trading, news came from the shanghai stock exchange: it is scheduled to organize a system startup connectivity test after the national day holiday on october 7 to provide a connectivity test environment for relevant institutions to verify startup. being prepared for a rainy day provides reassurance to those who are worried about the stability of the trading system.
as of the morning's close, the shanghai stock exchange index rose 5.70%, the shenzhen component index rose 8.28%, and the chinext index rose 11.41%. the turnover of shanghai and shenzhen stock markets was 1.66 trillion yuan, 712.5 billion yuan higher than the previous trading day.
in terms of hong kong stocks, hong kong's hang seng index rose 3.34% in half a day, and the hang seng technology index rose 7.12%. guotai junan international's gains expanded to over 55%.
during the lunch break, dazhang noticed media reports: chen guo, chief strategy officer of citic construction investment, said in the wechat exchange group that "gathering at new highs" has been fulfilled, and the name of the exchange group was changed from "counterattack" to "confidence revaluation bull". the group name will not be changed this year. this made da zhang look forward to the afternoon opening even more.
fire cooking oil
sure enough, the rhythm started as soon as the afternoon started. within 1 minute, the growth enterprise market index rose by 12% and 13%, the shanghai composite index rose by more than 6%, and the shenzhen stock exchange component index rose by 9%.
around 13:08, the shanghai composite index rose by 7%, breaking through the 3,300-point integer mark, rising by 20% in the past five trading days; the shenzhen composite component index rose by 9.56%, the gem index rose by 13.36%, and 5,076 stocks rose in the two cities. . the increase in the north securities 50 index also expanded to 19%, and more than 20 minutes later it rose to 20%, continuing to set a new record.
at this time, the nikkei 225 index's decline was approaching 5%. it can be said that there are two worlds of ice and fire, da zhang sighed in his heart.
in the financial media, dong ming, head of china of ubs global financial markets department, commented that last week marked a clear turning point for the entire a-share market. driven by recent strong policy signals, market expectations have changed relatively clearly, and investor confidence has also recovered significantly. "the next key is to follow up on fundamentals."
at around 13:38, the transaction volume of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan, exceeding 850 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day, setting a transaction record since june 15, 2015.
about 5 minutes later, the shenzhen component index rose by 10%, the shanghai composite index rose by 7.38%, the gem index rose by 14.18%, and 5,081 stocks rose in the two cities. the main contract of csi 500 stock index futures (ic2410) hit the daily limit, hitting a new high since september last year.
at this time, hong kong stocks also continued to rise, with the hang seng technology index expanding to 8% and the hang seng index rising by more than 3.7%. hong kong stocks and chinese securities firms surged, with shenwan hongyuan hong kong (00218.hk) rising 107% and industrial securities international (06058.hk) rising more than 63%. subsequently, in addition to the suspended trading of haitong securities (600837.sh) and guotai junan (601211.sh), 41 a-share listed securities firms collectively hit the daily limit. the "bull market flag-bearers" were stunned to see such an "explosive" performance.
within 5 minutes starting around 13:55, a-shares once again ushered in a wave of landmark nodes. first, the shenzhen component index broke through the 10,500-point integer mark, and then the gem index expanded to 15%, and the shanghai stock exchange index expanded to 8%. during this period, the ftse a50 china index futures rose by 4%, the highest level since february 2023. the hang seng index also rose by more than 4%, and the hang seng technology index rose by more than 8.5%.
at around 14:28, the trading volume of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2.36 trillion yuan, breaking the historical record of a-share single-day trading volume set on may 28, 2015. in terms of individual trading targets, many stock etfs set single-day trading records. among them, huatai-berry csi 300 etf’s trading volume exceeded 21.5 billion yuan, breaking the record for the highest single-day trading volume of etfs 9 years ago; kweichow moutai (600519.sh) the transaction volume exceeded 24 billion yuan, setting a record.
around 14:46, the transaction volume of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan.
as of 15:00 that day, the a-share market ended the day's hot trading with the shanghai composite index rising 8.06%, the shenzhen component index rising 10.67%, the chinext index rising 15.36%, and the bse 50 index rising 22.84%. on that day, the turnover of shanghai, shenzhen and beijing exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan (including 2.59 trillion yuan in shanghai and shenzhen), setting a record high. over 700 stocks in the shanghai and shenzhen stock exchanges reached their daily limit, and over 2,700 stocks rose by more than 10%.
hong kong stocks, which closed one hour later than a-shares, saw their closing gains narrower than before: the hang seng index closed up 2.43%, and the hang seng technology index rose 6.7%.
prior to this, the nikkei 225 index closed down 4.8% throughout the day, falling below 38,000 points; the south korea composite index closed down 2.11%.
that night, cctv news broadcast reported on a shares again with the title "a shares soared, transaction volume exceeded 2.6 trillion, reaching a new high", which lasted nearly 40 seconds. the last time news network reported on the a-share market was back on july 6, 2020. on that day, the shanghai stock exchange index rose nearly 6%, hitting a 2-and-a-half-year high. the daily turnover of the two cities exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan.
calm down, calm down
dazhang and his stock friends concluded that six new records were set for a-shares on september 30th——
in terms of indexes: the chinext index has the highest single-day increase (15.36%), rising 42.12% on the 5th; the science and technology innovation 50 index has the highest single-day increase (17.88%), rising 35.66% on the 5th; the beixin 50 index has the highest single-day increase record (22.84%), rising 46.86% on the 5th; the shenzhen component index’s single-day rise hit the highest record (10.67%) since the implementation of price limits, rising 30.26% on the 5th.
in terms of transaction volume, the single-day transaction volume of shanghai and shenzhen hit a record high; the transaction volume exceeded one trillion in the first 35 minutes, setting a new record for the fastest one trillion yuan in history.
according to wind data, the total market value of a-shares increased by more than 7.35 trillion yuan on september 30, and the cumulative growth in the last five trading days exceeded 17.23 trillion yuan. oriental harbor chairman dan bin posted on weibo on september 30 that some colleagues had a bumper harvest today, and their earnings in a few days even exceeded his (dan bin’s) earnings in the u.s. stock market for the whole year.
in just a few trading days, the csi 300 index has risen by more than 20% from its stage low, which means that a-shares have entered a technical bull market. faced with this unprecedented wealth feast, funds from all walks of life, including foreign capital, are enthusiastic. an overseas hedge fund person told reporters, "the current sentiment of foreign clients is 'abc' - 'all-in buy china'."
in the cbn tv "chief strategy episode" program, meng lei, a chinese equity strategist at ubs securities, said that boosting stock market confidence is one of the focuses of current policy efforts. as loose policies are further implemented, more patience will be required. capital and long-term investors will enter the market.
and amidst the frenzy, there are also calm voices. dazhang noticed that in the above program, lin rongxiong, chief strategist of sdic securities, pointed out that after the national day holiday, the market's rush to bullish and fast bullishness should be unsustainable, and this kind of rush to bullish and fast bullishness is also not conducive to the long-term healthy and stable development of the capital market. da zhang was convinced.
last thursday, the political bureau of the central committee held a meeting to study and deploy economic work. some of the words highlighted the great importance attached to some "new situations and problems" that have emerged in the current economic operation. the meeting called for "to look at the current economic situation comprehensively, objectively and calmly, face up to difficulties, strengthen confidence, and effectively enhance the sense of responsibility and urgency to do a good job in economic work."
on september 27, the national bureau of statistics announced that from january to august this year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide was 4,652.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%; in august, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 17.8% year-on-year. yu weining, a statistician at the industrial department of the national bureau of statistics, said that domestic consumer demand is still weak and the external environment is complex and changeable. the foundation for the recovery of industrial enterprises' profits still needs to be consolidated.
on the 30th, the china purchasing managers index for september released by the national bureau of statistics also mentioned that the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the non-manufacturing business boom level dropped slightly. among them, the service industry business activity index was 49.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. a reporter from china business news noted that this is the first time the service industry business activity index has shrunk since december last year.
from the perspectives of all parties, the main contradiction of china's current economy is the imbalance of supply and demand caused by insufficient domestic effective demand, which in turn leads to a discrepancy between macro data and micro perceptions. this divergence will have a negative impact on the effective boost to consumption and investment, and this impact will inevitably be reflected in the stock market. based on this, stock investment still needs to remain calm and rational.
the unprecedented crazy 4 hours of a-share trading (a-share trading time) has come to an end, and the team-building activity of dazhang company has also evolved into a stock trading exchange meeting. good news continues to come - the six major state-owned commercial banks announced that they will adjust the interest rates of existing mortgages in batches, the shanghai clearing house announced that it will continue to fully exempt all bond issuance registration fees, and beijing announced further optimization and adjustment of real estate-related policies... dazhang’s investment , have more expectations for life.
(this article comes from china business news)
