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core conclusion

the hong kong stock market has closed sharply higher since mid-to-late september, and the annual growth rate of major stock indexes has been significantly ahead of the major markets in our statistics.as of september 30, the hang seng china enterprises index had a cumulative increase of 30.2% for the whole year, and the hang seng technology index and the hang seng index had a cumulative increase of 26.2% and 24.0% respectively, ranking first among the major markets in our statistics. especially since mid-september, the hang seng technology index has increased by 36.6% in just half a month, which is significantly better than the major markets in our statistics. it is also far better than the hang seng composite index and the hang seng state-owned enterprises index, showing better performance. high elasticity.

in september, international intermediary funds in the hong kong stock market turned to net inflows again after continuous outflows for several consecutive months, becoming an important incremental fund in the market.since the epidemic in 2020, the incremental capital structure of the hong kong stock market has undergone significant changes. on one side, overseas funds represented by international intermediaries continue to flow out of the hong kong stock market, and on the other side, mainland funds represented by southbound funds continue to pour into the hong kong stock market. however, judging from the latest marginal changes, a more interesting phenomenon is that since september, overseas funds in the hong kong stock market have begun to turn into net inflows, and since mid-to-late september, the net inflow of funds from international intermediaries has reached hk$39.6 billion, exceeding the capital going south by 205%. net inflow of hk$1 billion.

in the hong kong stock market, international intermediary holdings prefer the consumer discretionary and information technology sectors, which are also important components of the hang seng technology index. from this perspective, we believe that the rapid return of international intermediary funds since mid-to-late september is the dominant factor in the hang seng technology index. an important factor.as of september 30, in the hong kong stock market, the consumer discretionary industry held by international intermediaries accounted for 30%, and information technology accounted for 25%, which is much higher than other industries. in the hang seng technology index, the information technology industry accounts for 50% of the weight, and optional consumption accounts for 49%, which is also much higher than the 19% and 35% of the hang seng state-owned enterprise index. therefore, we believe that the substantial return of foreign capital in the hong kong stock market since mid-to-late september is an important reason for hang seng technology’s dominance.

looking forward to the market outlook, we believe that the recent outstanding performance of chinese assets represented by hong kong stocks is the result of multiple factors. on the one hand, various favorable domestic policies have been frequently introduced, which has greatly boosted market confidence; on the other hand, the overseas federal reserve cut interest rates in september, and the global the liquidity environment tends to be loose at the margin, and in the early stages of the fed's interest rate cuts, global equity markets tend to benefit from the logic on the denominator side and generally perform better. therefore, taken together, we believe that the current hong kong stock market is still on its way, and there is still room for growth in the future. structurally, if international intermediary funds continue to flow back into the hong kong stock market, the growth sector represented by hang seng technology is expected to continue to dominate.

risk warning:the first is geopolitical risks; the second is macroeconomic failure to meet expectations; the third is historical experience is for reference only; the fourth is significant fluctuations in overseas markets, etc.

report text

1. since mid-to-late september, the hang seng technology index of hong kong stocks has dominated the market by a large margin.

the hong kong stock market has closed sharply higher since mid-to-late september, and the annual growth rate of major stock indexes has been significantly ahead of the major markets in our statistics.as of september 30, the hang seng china enterprises index had a cumulative increase of 30.2% for the whole year, and the hang seng technology index and the hang seng index had a cumulative increase of 26.2% and 24.0% respectively, ranking first among the major markets in our statistics. especially since mid-september, the hang seng technology index has increased by 36.6% in just half a month, which is significantly better than the major markets in our statistics. it is also far better than the hang seng composite index and the hang seng state-owned enterprises index, showing better performance. high elasticity.

2. international intermediary funds in the hong kong stock market have returned significantly since september.

in september, international intermediary funds in the hong kong stock market turned to net inflows again after continuous outflows for several consecutive months, becoming an important incremental fund in the market.since the epidemic in 2020, the incremental capital structure of the hong kong stock market has undergone significant changes. on one side, overseas funds represented by international intermediaries continue to flow out of the hong kong stock market, and on the other side, mainland funds represented by southbound funds continue to pour into the hong kong stock market. however, judging from the latest marginal changes, a more interesting phenomenon is that since september, overseas funds in the hong kong stock market have begun to turn into net inflows, and since mid-to-late september, the net inflow of funds from international intermediaries has reached hk$39.6 billion, exceeding the capital going south by 205%. net inflow of hk$1 billion.

3. hong kong stock market characteristics reflect the position preference of incremental funds

in the hong kong stock market, international intermediary holdings prefer the consumer discretionary and information technology sectors, which are also important components of the hang seng technology index. from this perspective, we believe that the rapid return of international intermediary funds since mid-to-late september is the dominant factor in the hang seng technology index. an important factor.as of september 30, in the hong kong stock market, the consumer discretionary industry held by international intermediaries accounted for 30%, and information technology accounted for 25%, which is much higher than other industries. in the hang seng technology index, the information technology industry accounts for 50% of the weight, and optional consumption accounts for 49%, which is also much higher than the 19% and 35% of the hang seng state-owned enterprise index. therefore, we believe that the substantial return of foreign capital in the hong kong stock market since mid-to-late september is an important reason for hang seng technology’s dominance.

looking forward to the market outlook, we believe that the recent outstanding performance of chinese assets represented by hong kong stocks is the result of multiple factors. on the one hand, various favorable domestic policies have been frequently introduced, which has greatly boosted market confidence; on the other hand, the overseas federal reserve cut interest rates in september, and the global the liquidity environment tends to be loose at the margin, and in the early stages of the fed's interest rate cuts, global equity markets tend to benefit from the logic on the denominator side and generally perform better. therefore, taken together, we believe that the current hong kong stock market is still on its way, and there is still room for growth in the future. structurally, if international intermediary funds continue to flow back into the hong kong stock market, the growth sector represented by hang seng technology is expected to continue to dominate.