how will nasrallah’s death affect the changes in the middle east?
2024-10-03
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reference news network reported on september 30on september 28, the website of the german news and television channel published an article entitled "what openings has nasrallah left for hezbollah?" "article. the article is compiled as follows:
hezbollah leader nasrallah was killed after israeli forces claimed they attacked the headquarters of the shiite militia. this was like a bolt from the blue in the middle east.
what will happen to hezbollah now?
the charismatic nasrallah is considered the most powerful man in lebanon. his death left the shiite group somewhat leaderless. "the death of nasrallah is a serious blow to israel against hezbollah, and its impact goes far beyond lebanon," said yannis yulien grimm, a middle east expert at freie universität berlin. after being eliminated, it is unclear who within hezbollah can still call the shots. hezbollah may be waiting for instructions from iran. iran is hezbollah’s de facto protective force and most important supporter. it remains to be seen how iran will respond. but what is certain is that israel's large-scale attacks have weakened and humiliated hezbollah to a degree not seen in recent years.
how significant was nasrallah’s death?
nasrallah was one of the most important figures in the so-called "axis of resistance". he is sometimes considered the number two figure behind iran's supreme leader ali khamenei. grimm said he might even be khamenei's chosen spiritual successor for the alliance. grimm said that if the elderly khamenei leaves office or dies, then "nasrallah may succeed him as the spiritual leader of the 'axis of resistance' because there is no other charismatic figure in iran who can assume this role."
anthony samrani, editor-in-chief of lebanese orient-today newspaper, believes that the impact of nasrallah’s killing even exceeds the killing of soleimani and bin laden.
what are the implications for the conflict with israel?
that remains to be seen, and there are several possibilities. for example, hezbollah, now leaderless, may still try to respond in a particularly violent way despite being hit - and this is to show that it is still capable of attacking. it may launch strikes in conjunction with militias in iraq and yemen, and iran may also participate.
if hezbollah does not withdraw its troops from the southern border with israel as requested by israel, it is not ruled out that the israeli army will launch a limited ground offensive in order to maintain high pressure on this militia. but such fighting could benefit hezbollah, which has waged a guerrilla war against israel in the south. because hezbollah and hamas have been significantly weakened by the war in gaza, the importance of yemen's houthis as an ally of tehran is likely to increase.
what does nasrallah's death mean for lebanon?
the tiny mediterranean country has been without a president and effectively no government for nearly two years, and is now creating a power vacuum as a result of nasrallah's death. there is currently no sign from iran that it, hezbollah's most important supporter, intends to fill the void. as a result, there could be new power struggles among other organizational factions in a lebanon deeply divided by religious differences. hezbollah’s opponents may now see a unique opportunity to eradicate hezbollah’s structure in the country once and for all and restore government control. but the country's security could also collapse, with new religious conflicts and unrest erupting. the country had experienced a bloody civil war from 1975 to 1990. (compiled by wang qing)
