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xiaoxiang morning news reported that on the evening of october 1, local time, iran launched a missile attack on israel.

why did iran choose this time to launch an attack on israel? what impact will this attack have on the regional situation? the united states issued an alert to israel before iran launched an attack. what role does the united states play in regional conflicts?

iran says it fired 200 missiles at israel

iranian foreign minister: iran’s military operations have ended

the reporter learned that salami, commander of iran’s islamic revolutionary guard corps, said that in the operation on the evening of october 1, iran launched 200 missiles at israel.

previously, iran's islamic revolutionary guard corps issued a statement on the military operation on the evening of the 1st, saying that "under a long period of self-restraint", iran carried out this operation after the assassination of haniyeh, the former leader of the palestinian islamic resistance movement (hamas). in response to the killings of haniyeh, lebanese hezbollah leader nasrallah, and senior revolutionary guard generals by israel, iran launched dozens of missiles at israel.

iranian foreign minister araghchi posted a message on social media in the early morning of october 2, local time, warning israel not to take retaliatory actions in response to iran's missile attacks.

araghchi said that iran "exercised the right of self-defense" in accordance with article 51 of the united nations charter on the evening of the 1st. this military action was taken after iran exercised great restraint in the past two months and left space for the ceasefire in gaza. of.

araghchi stressed that iran's military operations have ended unless israel decides to take further retaliatory actions. if israel takes retaliatory actions, iran's response will be more "violent and powerful."

expert analysis: if iran does not respond, it will be difficult to explain both internally and externally.

following the attack in april this year, iran launched another large-scale missile attack on israel on october 1. experts believe that iran's move is a response forced by a series of recent developments in the region.

li shaoxian, dean of the china institute of arab studies at ningxia university: we saw first that on july 31, haniyeh, the top leader of hamas, was killed in an attack in tehran. a few days ago, lebanese hezbollah leader nasrallah and a deputy commander of the iranian revolutionary guards were killed in israeli air strikes in beirut, the capital of lebanon. not only that, israel is also threatening iran’s supreme leader ayatollah ali khamenei. obviously, under such a background, if iran does not respond, it will be difficult to explain internally and externally.

the future development of events depends on how the united states and israel respond

shortly before iran launched missiles at israel, the united states issued a warning to israel, saying that iran might launch an attack on israel within the next 12 hours. at the same time, u.s. president biden and vice president harris directed u.s. forces in the middle east to help israel intercept iranian missiles.

experts said that after iran launches a missile attack, the next development direction will depend on how israel and the united states respond.

li shaoxian, dean of the china institute of arab studies at ningxia university: if israel and the united states fight back against iran's move, the regional situation will inevitably escalate, and there is the possibility of a war between israel and iran. iran claimed after the missile attack that if israel dared to respond or carry out further malicious acts, iran would immediately respond with an overwhelming response. judging from the current situation, the united states shows no sign of going to war with iran. therefore, the development of the situation may once again be a replica of the trend in april this year, except that this time the scale of iran's attack is much larger than that in april, and this time the attack , iran did not fully communicate with the united states in advance.

why did the "retaliation cycle" between iran and israel happen?

after a new round of large-scale conflict between palestine and israel broke out in october last year, the regional situation suddenly became tense. for many years, the game between iran and israel in the middle east in the form of indirect confrontation has also developed into a "retaliation cycle" under the disturbance of the evolution of the situation.

at the beginning of a new round of conflicts between palestine and israel, on october 8 last year, iran's permanent mission to the united nations released a signal of firm support for palestine, but at the same time denied iran's involvement in hamas's attacks on israel. iran said that hamas's operation was the "biggest failure" of israel's security agencies. on the same day, the lebanese hezbollah armed forces directly engaged in armed conflict with israel in the name of solidarity with the palestinians. israel believed that the lebanese hezbollah armed forces and hamas were supported by iran, which also exacerbated tensions between iran and israel.

since the outbreak of the syrian civil war in 2011, the israeli military has repeatedly carried out air strikes on targets in syria on the pretext of preventing iran from transporting weapons to hezbollah in lebanon through syria. since the outbreak of a new round of palestinian-israeli conflict, israel has frequently bombed targets in syria. on december 2 last year, the iranian revolutionary guards stated that two of its members were killed by israel while performing military advisory tasks in syria. iran's islamic revolutionary guard corps did not specify the specific time and location. according to reuters, this is the first time since the outbreak of the new round of palestinian-israeli conflict that israeli air strikes on syria have killed iranian personnel.

similar attacks have occurred from time to time since then, but there has not yet been a direct confrontation between iran and israel until april this year. on april 1, the consular building of the iranian embassy in syria was attacked by an israeli missile, killing at least 13 people. on the 2nd, iran’s supreme leader ayatollah ali khamenei vowed to punish israel for its “criminal behavior.” from the evening of april 13 to the early morning of april 14, iran’s islamic revolutionary guard corps announced that it had launched dozens of missiles and drones at israeli targets. this is the first time iran has launched an attack on israel from its territory.

on july 31, hamas leader haniyeh was killed in an attack in tehran, the capital of iran. iran's ministry of foreign affairs issued a statement that day, strongly condemning israel's assassination of haniyeh. the statement stated that iran has the right to respond appropriately to this violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

on the evening of september 27, the israeli army launched a series of air strikes on the southern suburbs of beirut, the capital of lebanon. lebanese hezbollah leader nasrallah and iran's senior islamic revolutionary guard corps general abbas nirfuroushan and others were killed in israeli air strikes. iran's supreme national security council held a meeting on the 28th and decided to launch a "strong" response to israel.

original title: why did iran choose to launch an attack on israel at this time? expert solution

editor: mou huilan editor: zhou shangdou reviewer: feng fei