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on wednesday, major opec+ members held an online meeting to discuss whether to ease production curbs. after the meeting, the organization issued a statement saying that the opec+ joint ministerial monitoring committee (jmmc) meeting has ended, and the importance of achieving full compliance and compensation for production cuts was emphasized.opec+ did not make any changes to its production policy and maintained its plan to increase production starting in december.the next meeting of the jmmc will be held on december 1.

russian deputy prime minister novak said that opec+ still adheres to the production capacity decision reached previously. opec+ will continue to pay close attention to changes in market conditions.

earlier on the same day, according to media reports, the saudi oil minister recently stated that if opec+ members do not comply with the agreed production limit agreement, oil prices may fall to us$50 per barrel:

according to an opec representative who participated in the call, during last week’s call,saudi arabia's oil minister prince abdulaziz bin salman has warned that oil prices could fall to $50 a barrel if other oil-producing countries do not comply with agreed production cuts.

saudi arabia singled out iraq and kazakhstan.according tos&p globaldata,iraqdaily production in august exceeded 400,000 barrels.kazakhstanproduction will rise with the resumption of the tengiz oil field, which can produce 720,000 barrels of oil per day. in fact, in addition to iraq and kazakhstan, which were named, russia's production as of july this year also exceeded the quota.

one delegate at the meeting said the saudi message was that there was no point in increasing oil production if there was no room in the market. some would be better off stopping and respecting their commitment to opec+.

other oil-producing countries interpreted saudi arabia's latest statement as an implicit threat that saudi arabia is willing to launch a price war to retain its market share if other countries do not comply with the group's production reduction agreement.

the saudi oil ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

it is widely believed in the industry that saudi arabia needs an oil price of us$85 per barrel to help the country transform its economy.

judging from past history, saudi arabia has launched oil price wars to punish other oil-producing countries. for example:

saudi arabia launched an oil price war with russia in march 2020. saudi arabia's decision to increase oil production to record levels during the covid-19 epidemic caused oil prices to fall 65% in the quarter to the lowest level in 17 years, and oil prices for some maturities even experienced negative growth for the first time in history.

oil prices fell below $10 a barrel in 1986, also because saudi arabia increased production.

on tuesday, iran fired hundreds of missiles at israel. against the background of escalating tensions in the middle east, oil prices ushered in a long-awaited rebound after experiencing a sustained downturn. oil prices once rose by 5% that day, but the gains narrowed at the end of the day, rising by 2.4%.

some industry insiders worry that the expansion of conflicts in the middle east could hinder gulf oil exports through the strait of hormuz bordering iran, pushing up oil prices. but until now, geopolitical tensions have lasted for several months and have not had a material impact on oil prices. market concerns about slowing economic growth outweighed disruptions from geopolitics.

in recent months, oil prices have been on a downward trend. as of the end of september, u.s. oil and brent oil had fallen for three consecutive months. they fell by 6.2% and 6.7% respectively in september, and the decline in the third quarter reached about 16%.

faced with weak oil prices, opec+ has extended production cuts and restrictions multiple times. opec+ members decided to postpone production increases by two months to december after an online meeting last month. the group originally agreed in june to ease voluntary production cuts starting in october.

oil prices continue to fall despite opec+'s efforts to stabilize the market through production cuts. this has frustrated the saudi authorities. oil prices have been depressed in part because some opec+ members ignored plans to curb production for much of the year, making the cuts less effective.

opec+'s production cuts mean its share of the oil market shrinks. according to data from the international energy agency, its share this year is 48%, down from 50% in 2023 and 51% in 2022. competition is expected to intensify next year.

at the same time, other oil-producing countries, the united states, guyana and brazil, have increased production, which is expected to add more than 1 million barrels per day to global oil supply. brazil joined opec+ this year but said it would not participate in production cuts.