watch the world·the situation in the middle east | will the situation in the middle east be completely out of control if iran's missile attacks israel?
2024-10-02
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xinhua news agency, beijing, october 2 (xinhua) iran launched more than 180 ballistic missiles on the evening of october 1 to attack military targets in israel in retaliation, claiming a hit rate of 90%. israel claimed that most of the missiles were intercepted and that israel suffered almost no losses.
israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu called iran's missile attack on israel a "big mistake" and vowed revenge. observers believe that, similar to its first air strike in retaliation against israel in april this year, iran's strike this time is still a "one-time" strike, hoping to prevent the situation from getting completely out of control and prevent the united states from being directly involved.
on october 1, a missile intercepted by the israeli air defense system flew over jerusalem. photo by xinhua news agency reporter chen junqing
forced to take action
fan hongda, a professor at the institute of middle east studies at shanghai international studies university, believes that iran began planning this revenge attack after israel assassinated palestinian islamic resistance movement (hamas) leader ismail haniyeh in tehran two months ago. iran's failure to implement it before is not because of weakness, but as iranian officials have said that it will retaliate at the appropriate time and may consider giving up if a ceasefire agreement can be reached in the gaza strip. however, more than two months later, israel not only failed to cease fire with hamas, but also launched a violent attack on the lebanese hezbollah. this allowed the hard-liners in iran’s senior leadership who advocated attacking israel to gradually gain the upper hand, and hezbollah leader hassan nasrul la's death by the israeli army played a catalyst role in iran's determination to attack israel.
duan jiuzhou, director of the center for west asian and north african studies at the institute of international and area studies at tsinghua university, believes that when the lebanese hezbollah, an important ally of the "arc of resistance", was severely damaged and leaders such as nasrallah were "targeted for elimination", if iran does this if it fails to take action at this time, it will greatly damage its credibility as the "alliance leader" and cause the anti-israel alliance to waver and even split and collapse as israel and the united states hope.
this is a tv picture of hezbollah leader nasrallah delivering a speech, filmed in beirut, lebanon, on september 19. published by xinhua news agency (photo by bilal jarvisi)
an article in the british financial times analyzed that lebanese hezbollah is an important tool for iran to deter israel. once hezbollah is defeated by israel, iran will face the most dangerous situation in the middle east in decades. iran has not directly aided hamas. if it continues to sit back and watch hezbollah being annihilated, its allies will feel betrayed by iran, and israel will judge iran as a "powerful foreign power but a meddlesome country", and may then take more radical actions, even air strikes on iran's nuclear facilities.
fan hongda noticed that the official position of iran after the attack on israel on the 1st was exactly the same as that after the first retaliatory air strike in april, implying that as long as israel did not take an overreaction, the situation could end there. duan jiuzhou also believes that iran's attack is a "one-time" act and does not mean that it will end up in war with israel. after all, under domestic economic difficulties and other circumstances, there is no chance of winning a conventional war with israel at this stage.
this is the landmark freedom tower taken in tehran, the capital of iran, on january 1, 2021. published by xinhua news agency (photo by ahmed halabisas)
iranian foreign minister seyyed abbas araghchi stated on social media on the 2nd that iran’s military operations have ended. if israel takes retaliatory actions, iran’s response will be more “violent and powerful.”
leave room
duan jiuzhou believes that compared with the last time it mainly used drones and cruise missiles to attack israel, iran used ballistic missiles to attack israel this time. although they were more destructive, they were all aimed at military targets and were generally restrained in terms of quantity, aiming to avoid causing consequences. israeli civilian casualties prevented the netanyahu government from taking the opportunity to "incite" public opinion. it can be seen that this attack is as symbolic as the last one, indicating that iran still hopes to prevent israel from dragging the united states into the battlefield.
this is us president biden (first from left) taken at the white house in washington, usa, on may 13. published by xinhua news agency (photo by aaron)
in the united states, president joseph biden said that iran's attack on israel "appears to be failed and ineffective." fan hongda believes that the countdown to the u.s. election has entered, and the democratic government cannot control netanyahu. in order to prevent the situation in the middle east from affecting the election, the white house still downplays the intensity of iran's retaliation as it did in april, trying to calm things down.
in fan hongda's view, how the situation will change and whether it will escalate depends on whether israel takes violent retaliation against iran. if israel airstrikes iran's energy facilities or even nuclear facilities, it will be tantamount to a full-scale declaration of war against iran. iran has the ability to expand the scope of its attacks on israel. once a full-scale war breaks out between the two countries, it may have inestimable consequences for both countries and even the entire middle east. both iran and israel are well aware of this. therefore, this worst-case outcome is unlikely to occur.
duan jiuzhou believes that israel intends to cut off iran's wings in the "arc of resistance" one by one. the current focus is on launching ground operations against hezbollah in lebanon. although hezbollah has suffered heavy losses, the strength of its grassroots troops still exists. israel may wait until the combat operations against hezbollah achieve its set goals before considering dealing with the next target. despite the unpredictability of israel's actions, now is not a good time to fully retaliate against iran. (hu ruoyu)
source: xinhua news agency client
